Park factor
115 total idx
Coors Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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MLBAnalytics2026
11 on the slate162 games of signal, logged at first pitch.
The Model · MLB
Today’s sharpest read: TB
The model rates TB over COL well past the market’s price — its biggest disagreement with the books on the slate.
+31.1% EV+20.0pp edgeLOCKas of 8:17 AM EDT
What's EV?
EV = Expected Value. The percentage edge the model thinks the bet has over the posted sportsbook price.
+5% EV means the model expects $5 of profit per $100 risked — over enough samples. Higher EV = larger gap between the model's win probability and the market's implied probability at the line on offer. We surface only +EV picks.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketMLB · model edges · tonight
Where the model disagrees with the price.
11 games priced · 3 of 3 shown
Pick: TB+31.1%EV
TBvsCOL
Model80.3%
Market60.3%
Best price-158 · ML
Pick: CLE+24.0%EV
CLEvsNYM
Model63.5%
Market50.4%
Best price-105 · ML+ATS
Pick: MIN+14.6%EV
MINvsKC
Model55.1%
Market47.3%
Best price+108 · ML
Model accuracy · MLB
How the MLB model grades
Last 7
62.8%
78 games
Last 30
61.1%
350 games
Last 90
59.9%
1142 games
All time
-4.5vs mkt
205/4182 priced · raw 56.7%
By confidence tier · all-time
★ Locks
69.6%
339g
+9.6
Edges
59.8%
1143g
+4.8
Leans
54.6%
1186g
+2.6
Tossups
53.0%
1514g
+3.0
Reliability curve · is the MLB model calibrated?›
4,182 picks · 6 buckets
| Predicted | Actual win rate | Sample | 95% CI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 to 55% | 52.7% | 994 of 1886 | 50–55% | calibrated |
| 55 to 60% | 57.2% | 713 of 1247 | 54–60% | calibrated |
| 60 to 65% | 60.1% | 427 of 710 | 56–64% | calibrated |
| 65 to 70% | 67.3% | 167 of 248 | 61–73% | calibrated |
| 70 to 75% | 75.3% | 61 of 81 | 65–83% | calibrated |
| 75 to 80% | 80.0% | 8 of 10 | 49–94% | calibrated |
Beat the close · MLB
+179.0bps · model vs close
Positive
64%95% CI 61–67%
Graded
999
Tonight · model projections
Player props to watch
Model projection vs season average — biggest moves first. Projections, not odds.
Ian Seymour
TB @ COL · High conf · 37g
4.70K
+2.00 vs season
Griffin Jax
TB vs CHW · High conf · 29g
5.20K
+1.80 vs season
Jack Perkins
ATH vs DET · High conf · 27g
4.70K
+1.40 vs season
Jack Perkins
ATH vs DET · High conf · 27g
3.10ER
+1.10 vs season
Spread board · model vs the line
Where the model and the run line disagree
Edge = the model’s cover probability minus the market’s implied, in points. 14 of 15 games priced.
| Matchup | Line | Model cover | Edge | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM@CLE | CLE +1.5 | 71% | +10.1pp | CLE · LOCK |
 CHW@ BOS | BOS -1.5 | 44% | +6.8pp | BOS · EDGE |
| MIN@KC | MIN -1.5 | 43% | +5.9pp | MIN · EDGE |
 TOR@ HOU | HOU -1.5 | 50% | +5.7pp | HOU · EDGE |
 LAA@ BAL | BAL -1.5 | 44% | +4.7pp | BAL · EDGE |
 PIT@ MIL | MIL -1.5 | 42% | +4.7pp | MIL · EDGE |
 ATH@ CIN | CIN -1.5 | 45% | +4.5pp | CIN · EDGE |
 SD@ ARI | ARI +1.5 | 64% | +4.3pp | ARI · LEAN |
 MIA@ ATL | ATL -1.5 | 42% | +4.3pp | ATL · LEAN |
 DET@ SEA | DET +1.5 | 63% | +2.5pp | DET · TOSS-UP |
Reliability · is the cover model calibrated?›
4,182 picks · 7 buckets
| Predicted | Actual cover rate | Sample | 95% CI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 to 55% | 60.3% | 270 of 448 | 56–65% | underconfident |
| 55 to 60% | 58.5% | 540 of 923 | 55–62% | calibrated |
| 60 to 65% | 64.7% | 966 of 1492 | 62–67% | calibrated |
| 65 to 70% | 67.6% | 606 of 896 | 65–71% | calibrated |
| 70 to 75% | 71.9% | 238 of 331 | 67–76% | calibrated |
| 75 to 80% | 88.4% | 76 of 86 | 80–94% | underconfident |
| 80 to 85% | 83.3% | 5 of 6 | 44–97% | calibrated |
When the model says X% the run line lean covers, how often did it actually cover? Graded on 4,182 completed games — the same cover model the edges above use.
Explore MLB
Live · today’s slate
Tonight’s games
MLB
MLB · Last night · Tue, Aug 4
Standouts of the night
STANDOUT INDEX · 0–100 NORMALIZED
- 1
Jesus LuzardoPHI def. WSH8.0 IP · 7 K
Share85 - 2
Cade PovichBAL def. LAA6.0 IP · 7 K
Share66 - 3
Luis TorrensNYM def. CLE3 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI
Share57 - 4
Ryan WeathersNYY def. STL6.0 IP · 6 K
Share57 - 5
Wilyer AbreuBOS def. CHW2 H · 2 HR · 2 RBI
Share57 - 6
Caleb DurbinBOS def. CHW2 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI
Share57 - 7
Grant HolmesATL def. MIA6.0 IP · 5 K
Share47 - 8
Liam HicksTB def. COL2 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI
Share47
The league's best individual lines from last night, one normalized score.
Marquee matchup tonight
8/5 - 2:10 PM EDT
TOR
Blue Jays
53-61
8/5 - 2:10 PM EDT
HOU
Astros
59-56
Vegas: HOU -176
Last 3 meetings
Series tied 1-1
Aug 5TOR2@HOU7
TOR2@HOU7Aug 4TOR3@HOU1
TOR3@HOU1Aug 5TOR@HOUtoday
TOR@HOUtodayStandings · ladder view
Where every team stands
Bar lengths track win-pct vs the conference leader. Dashed line marks the playoff cut.
Around the league
Stat leaders · 2025-26 regular season
Who's on top
HR
Home Runs
HOU
Y. Alvarez
35
2.
K. Schwarber33
K. Schwarber333.H. Goodman33
H. Goodman33RBI
Runs Batted In
CIN
S. Stewart
86
2.
C. Abrams85
C. Abrams853.Y. Alvarez84
Y. Alvarez84Injury report · 0 Out
Notable injuries
268 active leaguewide · capped 2 per team
DTD8/5
X. Bogaerts
SSFoot · Bruise
DTD8/5
J. Bauers
1BAbdomen · Soreness
DTD8/5
T. Yesavage
SPKnee · Soreness
DTD8/4
J. Walker
RFKnee · Inflammation
DTD8/4
B. Eldridge
DHThumb · Bruise
DTD8/4
J. Ramirez
3BHand · Soreness
DTD8/2
S. Bachman
RPArm
60-Day-IL8/5
J. Martinez
RPElbow · Surgery
60-Day-IL8/5
S. Armstrong
RPCalf · Strain
10-Day-IL8/5
D. Rushing
CElbow · Strain
Conference race
The playoff picture
Each team plotted by win-pct. Tighter clustering = closer race. Dashed line marks the playoff cut.
American League
.381 · .593
Playoffs
Out
National League
.395 · .619
Playoffs
Out
Against the spread
Team ATS standings
2026 regular season·731 of 731 games graded·Refreshed every 6h
| #▲ | Team⇅ | Record⇅ | PCT⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RaysTB | 31-17 | .646 |
| 2 | BravesATL | 31-19 | .620 |
| 3 | CardinalsSTL | 31-19 | .620 |
| 4 | DiamondbacksARI | 29-18 | .617 |
| 5 | PiratesPIT | 28-20 | .583 |
| 6 | RockiesCOL | 29-21 | .580 |
| 7 | White SoxCHW | 27-21 | .563 |
| 8 | TigersDET | 28-22 | .560 |
| 9 | RedsCIN | 26-22 | .542 |
| 10 | NationalsWSH | 26-22 | .542 |
| 11 | CubsCHC | 25-22 | .532 |
| 12 | GuardiansCLE | 26-23 | .531 |
| 13 | BrewersMIL | 26-23 | .531 |
| 14 | YankeesNYY | 26-23 | .531 |
| 15 | PadresSD | 27-24 | .529 |
| 16 | MarlinsMIA | 25-25 | .500 |
| 17 | TwinsMIN | 24-24 | .500 |
| 18 | AngelsLAA | 24-25 | .490 |
| 19 | RangersTEX | 23-24 | .489 |
| 20 | AthleticsATH | 23-25 | .479 |
| 21 | DodgersLAD | 23-27 | .460 |
| 22 | GiantsSF | 23-27 | .460 |
| 23 | Red SoxBOS | 22-27 | .449 |
| 24 | AstrosHOU | 21-28 | .429 |
| 25 | RoyalsKC | 20-27 | .426 |
| 26 | OriolesBAL | 20-28 | .417 |
| 27 | Blue JaysTOR | 19-31 | .380 |
| 28 | MetsNYM | 18-30 | .375 |
| 29 | MarinersSEA | 17-31 | .354 |
| 30 | PhilliesPHI | 13-36 | .265 |
Schedule strength · next 7 days
The road ahead
Average opponent power score across each team's next 5 games. Higher = harder slate.
Hardest stretch ahead
Blue Jays
5 games · avg opp pwr 68.2
HOUCHCPHIPHIPHI
68
Athletics
5 games · avg opp pwr 67.6
CINCINBOSBOSBOS
68
White Sox
5 games · avg opp pwr 67.6
BOSBOSCLECLECLE
68
Giants
5 games · avg opp pwr 67.1
TEXDETDETDETHOU
67
Diamondbacks
5 games · avg opp pwr 67.0
SDSDLADLADLAD
67Easiest stretch ahead
Phillies
5 games · avg opp pwr 55.2
WSHWSHTORTORTOR
55
Twins
5 games · avg opp pwr 55.4
KCKCMILMILMIL
55
Pirates
5 games · avg opp pwr 55.4
MILMILNYMNYMNYM
55
Dodgers
5 games · avg opp pwr 57.5
CHCARIARIARIKC
58
Rockies
5 games · avg opp pwr 58.0
TBSTLSTLSTLARI
58Recent form · last 21 days
Hottest teams right now
Top 5 by win% across the recent window · oldest on the left, most recent on the right
Storylines
Red Sox have won 6 in a row
Longest active win streak in the MLB
Tonight · model picks
Win prob for every game on the slate
Backtested at 55% on 2,932 games. Locks ★ first, then edges, then leans. Show our work.