Recent form
5-5
NY -2.3 vs SEA -5.0 margin
NY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Seattle Storm at New York Liberty
SEA
SEA
6-26
PregameWed, 7:00 PM EDTUSA Net
NY
NY
18-13
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
eattle Storm visit New York Liberty Wednesday at 8/5 - 7:00 PM EDT. NY is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
Vegas opened NY as a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 183.5. NY's moneyline implies a 81% break-even, SEA the inverse.
For bettors: the NY side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 183.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
NY
Home
43
FG %
46
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Jun 26NY88@SEA99
NY88@SEA99Aug 3SEA83@NY95
SEA83@NY95Aug 5SEA@NYtoday
SEA@NYtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NY -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
183.5
High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.1h
Moneyline
SEA+33023%NY-42581%45· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
-1.0 since open
Total
183.5
+2.0 since open
Scouting report
SEA @ NY
StorylineSEA dropped 9 straight.
Rest going in
SEAStandard
1 day
last game Aug 3
NYStandard
1 day
last game Aug 3
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
NY -9.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
183.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
NY -425
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
SEAmetricNY
6-26
Record
18-13
#8
Conf rank
#3
-5.6
Pt diff
+2.4
L9
Streak
W2
1-9
Last 10
5-5
60.9
Sched ahead
74.6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
NY -9.5·O/U 183.5·SEA +330/NY -425
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
NY vs SEA.
NY is 5-5 recently; SEA is 1-9.
78.6%
model · NY win prob
Recent form
- NY5–5-2.3
- SEA1–9-5.0
Situational
- NY2d rest
- SEA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NY has 0 straight road games; SEA has 2.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Breanna StewartNY21.2points · ±7.9
Breanna Stewart · 21.2 pts · last-10 21.7 vs season 20.4.
- Sabrina IonescuNY19.2points · ±6.4
Sabrina Ionescu · 19.2 pts · last-10 21.6 vs season 15.5.
- Natisha HiedemanSEA17.4points · ±8.5
Natisha Hiedeman · 17.4 pts · last-10 18.4 vs season 15.9.
Head-to-head · 2-3 · last 5
NY is 2-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-06-22NY @ SEA79–89
- 2025-07-06SEA @ NY79–70
- 2025-09-06NY @ SEA84–76
- 2026-06-25NY @ SEA88–99
- 2026-08-03SEA @ NY83–95
Line move
open -470→-395toward SEA
The market has moved 2.7pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
80.9%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
78.8%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
79.3%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
83.8%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.24 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
85% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
SEA
no live price
NY
no live price
| Book | SEA | NY | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +330 | -425 | +0.8 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
NY vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 85 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY21.2± 7.8high
- Sabrina IonescuNY19.2± 6.4high
- Natisha HiedemanSEA17.4± 8.5high
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA10.0± 2.9high
- Breanna StewartNY9.0± 2.8high
- Jonquel JonesNY8.9± 2.6high
Assists
- Sabrina IonescuNY5.0± 2.2high
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.8± 2.5high
- Jade MelbourneSEA4.0± 1.1high
Blocks
- Breanna StewartNY1.7± 0.9high
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.3± 1.2high
- Awa FamSEA1.1± 0.8high
Steals
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.8± 1.2high
- Breanna StewartNY1.2± 1.5high
- Leonie FiebichNY1.2± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA