Seattle Storm at New York Liberty
SEA
3-14
NY
11-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
eattle Storm visit New York Liberty Wednesday at 8/5 - 7:00 PM EDT. NY is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
NY
Home
41
FG %
46
Season series
Series starts 6/25
NY@SEAupcomingSEA@NYupcomingSEA@NYtodayScouting report
SEA @ NY
Tale of the tape
3-14
Record
11-5
#8
Conf rank
#2
-7.5
Pt diff
+6.0
L10
Streak
L1
0-10
Last 10
8-2
75.4
Sched ahead
59.3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
42.8%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY18.7± 8.0medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA15.6± 5.7medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA14.4± 9.9low
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.5± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.3medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA6.8± 4.0low
Assists
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.3± 2.0medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
- Sabrina IonescuNY3.3± 2.8low
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.3± 2.4medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
- Jordan HorstonSEA1.3± 1.7medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA1.2± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
NY
41.1%
FG%
44.6
▶46.1%
33.4%
3PT %
33.4
▶34.8%
77.2
PPG
85.7
▶88.6
18.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.0
14.1
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.6