HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Warren (NYY): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 28 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST in a win over DAL
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Signed free agent SS Braden Shewmake to a minor league contract (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Stewart (CIN): 2 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over PIT
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over STL
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · MLBY. Diaz (HOU): 4 H · 1 HR · 1 RBI in a win over TEX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 21 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST in a win over SEA
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed F Moritz Wagner to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBAWarriors: Re-signed G De'Anthony Melton to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANuggets: Signed F Spencer Jones to a contract (Jul 31)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ CHI, 8/1 - 1:00 PM EDT — LV -6.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Warren (NYY): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 28 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST in a win over DAL
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Signed free agent SS Braden Shewmake to a minor league contract (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Stewart (CIN): 2 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over PIT
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over STL
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · MLBY. Diaz (HOU): 4 H · 1 HR · 1 RBI in a win over TEX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 21 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST in a win over SEA
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed F Moritz Wagner to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBAWarriors: Re-signed G De'Anthony Melton to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANuggets: Signed F Spencer Jones to a contract (Jul 31)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ CHI, 8/1 - 1:00 PM EDT — LV -6.5
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Baltimore Orioles
BAL#9 · American League

Baltimore Orioles

54-56 (49.1%) · W2 · L10 5-5

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#18 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .481 · exp 52.9-57.1 vs act 54-56 · n=110 · luck +1.1W · thru 2026-07-31 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-26 → 2026-07-31 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 1 vs ATL, 2-3, 2026-07-26. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 3 at DET, 8-5, 2026-07-27. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 14 at DET, 0-14, 2026-07-28. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 at DET, 10-9, 2026-07-29. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 2 vs PHI, 6-4, 2026-07-31. Covered the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Pete Alonso110 G.818
  2. 2Taylor Ward109 G.732
  3. 3Gunnar Henderson109 G.688

Home runs

  1. 1Pete Alonso110 G23
  2. 2Gunnar Henderson109 G18
  3. 3Taylor Ward109 G7

RBI

  1. 1Pete Alonso110 G69
  2. 2Gunnar Henderson109 G47
  3. 3Taylor Ward109 G30

Batting average

  1. 1Pete Alonso110 G.252
  2. 2Taylor Ward109 G.247
  3. 3Gunnar Henderson109 G.219

Stolen bases

  1. 1Gunnar Henderson109 G8
  2. 2Pete Alonso110 G5
  3. 3Taylor Ward109 G4

ERA

  1. 1Kyle Bradish118.0 IP3.74
  2. 2Shane Baz122.0 IP3.98

WHIP

  1. 1Kyle Bradish118.0 IP1.36
  2. 2Shane Baz122.0 IP1.39

Strikeouts

  1. 1Kyle Bradish118.0 IP114
  2. 2Shane Baz122.0 IP107

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.237vs .244Slight gap

OBP

.321vs .318League avg

SLG

.395vs .402Slight gap

OPS

.716vs .720League avg

HR

128

R / G

4.6

K / G

9.2

Pitching

ERA

4.20vs 4.18League avg

FIP (approx)

4.12vs 4.19Slight edge

WHIP

1.34vs 1.30Slight gap

K / 9

8.0vs 8.5Below avg

BB / 9

3.4vs 3.4League avg

BAA

.252

HR / 9

1.1

GP

110

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.67 for / 0.67 against · margin +0.001st2nd · 0.33 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.172nd3rd · 0.42 for / 0.75 against · margin -0.333rd4th · 0.25 for / 0.75 against · margin -0.504th5th · 0.58 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.175th6th · 0.42 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.086th7th · 0.92 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.58PEAK7th8th · 0.25 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.258th9th · 0.17 for / 0.00 against · margin +0.179thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

4.0 avg / 4.4 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

4.40

Blowout wins (4+)

4

Shutout games

1

Form last 30

16-14

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.4 runs

2468AVG 4.4014283445567891011RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-06-23 → 2026-07-31

Record

16-14

Win pct

53.3%

Avg margin

-0.1

Longest W

7

Longest L

4

Upset wins

16

Favorite losses

1

2026-06-23 · @ LAA · L 1-5 · model gave 50%LAA2026-06-24 · @ LAA · L 6-7 · model gave 54%LAA2026-06-26 · vs WSH · W 3-1 · model gave 42%WSH2026-06-27 · vs WSH · L 3-4 · model gave 40%WSH2026-06-28 · vs WSH · L 4-6 · model gave 40%WSH2026-06-29 · vs CHW · L 2-8 · model gave 39%CHW2026-06-30 · vs CHW · L 3-9 · model gave 40%CHW2026-07-01 · vs CHW · W 6-1 · model gave 41%CHW2026-07-03 · @ CIN · W 3-0 · model gave 46%CIN2026-07-04 · @ CIN · W 8-5 · model gave 46%CIN2026-07-05 · @ CIN · L 2-3 · model gave 45%CIN2026-07-07 · vs CHC · L 2-5 · model gave 35%CHC2026-07-08 · vs CHC · L 7-9 · model gave 37%CHC2026-07-09 · vs CHC · W 3-2 · model gave 38%CHC2026-07-10 · vs KC · W 5-3 · model gave 49%KC2026-07-11 · vs KC · W 6-1 · model gave 49%KC2026-07-12 · vs KC · W 8-2 · model gave 49%KC2026-07-17 · @ HOU · W 3-2 · model gave 38%HOU2026-07-18 · @ HOU · W 4-2 · model gave 37%HOU2026-07-19 · @ HOU · W 5-2 · model gave 37%HOU2026-07-20 · @ BOS · L 5-6 · model gave 33%BOS2026-07-22 · @ BOS · L 3-6 · model gave 33%BOS2026-07-22 · @ BOS · W 5-1 · model gave 33%BOS2026-07-24 · vs ATL · L 6-7 · model gave 44%ATL2026-07-25 · vs ATL · W 3-2 · model gave 44%ATL2026-07-26 · vs ATL · L 2-3 · model gave 44%ATL2026-07-27 · @ DET · W 8-5 · model gave 45%DET2026-07-28 · @ DET · L 0-14 · model gave 46%DET2026-07-29 · @ DET · W 10-9 · model gave 46%DET2026-07-31 · vs PHI · W 6-4 · model gave 47%PHI

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

163 games · 2025-08-01 → 2026-07-31

Peak 1507 · Now 1466 · Trough 1416

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

4 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Sent 3B Weston Wilson outright to Norfolk (IL).

  2. Jun 11

    Sent RHP Ryan Helsley on a rehab assignment to Norfolk (IL). Agreed to terms with RHP Fermin Magallanes on a minor league contract.

  3. Jun 10

    Agreed to terms with C Chadwick Tromp on a minor league contract.

  4. Jun 8

    Placed RHP Chris Bassitt on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 5. Recalled RHP Trey Gibson from Norfolk (IL).

Source · ESPN

Position players · 25

Hitters & fielders

Albert Suarez

A. Suarez

RP · #49

Andrew Kittredge

A. Kittredge

RP · #39

Anthony Nunez

A. Nunez

RP · #66

Brandon Young

B. Young

SP · #63

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

C. Encarnacion-Strand

3B · #32

Coby Mayo

C. Mayo

3B · #16

Colton Cowser

C. Cowser

CF · #17

Dylan Beavers

D. Beavers

RF · #12

Grant Wolfram

G. Wolfram

RP · #48

Gunnar Henderson

G. Henderson

SS · #2

Jackson Holliday

J. Holliday

2B · #7

Jake Rogers

J. Rogers

C · #27

Jeremiah Jackson

J. Jackson

2B · #82

Josh Walker

J. Walker

RP · #61

Kyle Bradish

K. Bradish

SP · #38

Leody Taveras

L. Taveras

CF · #30

Pete Alonso

P. Alonso

1B · #25

Rico Garcia

R. Garcia

RP · #50

Shane Baz

S. Baz

SP · #34

Taylor Ward

T. Ward

LF · #3

Trevor Rogers

T. Rogers

SP · #28

Tyler O'Neill

T. O'Neill

RF · #9

Tyler Wells

T. Wells

RP · #68

Yennier Cano

Y. Cano

RP · #78

Yohel Pozo

Y. Pozo

C · #79

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 52-36
60%Last 30 · 244-165
Receipts →

Model picks on BAL

Below the 30-pick gate (n=23)