Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at CHW?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 24, 2026

FINAL+4HOU

HOU

51-54

CHW

54-48

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

28,657 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

55.1%

open 57.3% · -2.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
51.6%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.8%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.5%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.50

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+124

Close price

+107

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

46.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at CHW?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.0pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best

+114DraftKings

edge +3.0pp · implied 44.7%

CHW

no live price

Book	HOU	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	+114★	-137	+3.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.7± 0.9high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.0± 2.1high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
2.8± 2.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

CHW

.737

OPS

◀

.720

.724

.321

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.64

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.78

4.63

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.00

1.37

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 9 · CHW 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	1	9
CHW	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.307	6	1	3	0	0	0	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.327	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
I. Paredes3B	.261	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Altuve2B	.238	5	1	3	1	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.LF	.180	3	1	1	2	0	1	0
C. Walker1B	.233	5	1	1	3	0	0	1
L. SpenceCF	.208	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
C. SmithRF	.210	4	1	1	2	1	1	1
C. VazquezC	.215	5	0	2	1	0	0	2
N. AllenSS	.242	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.231	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	9	13	9	1	4	9

Player

.307

.327

.261

.238

.180

.233

.208

.210

.215

.242

.231

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ArrighettiSP	1.0	2	3	3	2	0	33
A. BlubaughRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	34
K. TengRP	2.0	2	2	2	1	1	42
B. SousaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	12
S. OkertRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	20
J. HaderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	8	5	5	4	8	168

Player

1.0

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

168

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.281	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. Murakami1B	.231	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. Vargas3B	.243	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. MontgomerySS	.218	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.244	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. MontgomeryRF	.250	5	1	3	1	0	0	2
T. PetersCF	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.278	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
D. RomoC	.127	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukDH	.259	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. AcunaSS	.247	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	8	4	0	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MartinSP	5.0	6	4	4	0	3	88
B. HudsonRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	1	23
S. DominguezRP	0.1	1	0	0	2	1	19
T. RichardsRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	24
C. MurphyRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	26
Team	9.0	13	9	9	4	9	180

Team

HOU

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHW vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.