HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBG. Williams (CLE): 5.2 IP · 10 K in a win over ARI
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Freeland (COL): 9.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER in a win over KC
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Transferred LHP PJ Poulin from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL (Aug 2)
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Liberatore (STL): 6.0 IP · 7 K in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Burns (CIN): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Sent LHP Marco Gonzales outright to Round Rock (PCL) (Aug 2)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. Mitchell (IND): 37 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST against MIN
LAST NIGHT · WNBAO. Miles (MIN): 28 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST in a win over IND
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Claimed 1B Buddy Kennedy off waivers from Seattle (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · WNBAMercury: Acquired G Kelsey Plum from Los Angeles in exchange for G Monique Akoa Makani (A…
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Signed G Eliska Joklova to a rest-of-season hardship contract (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · NFLCowboys: Signed T Sebastian Gutierrez (Aug 2)
TONIGHT · WNBASEA @ NY, 8/3 - 7:00 PM EDT — NY -7.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBG. Williams (CLE): 5.2 IP · 10 K in a win over ARI
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Freeland (COL): 9.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER in a win over KC
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Transferred LHP PJ Poulin from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL (Aug 2)
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Liberatore (STL): 6.0 IP · 7 K in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Burns (CIN): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Sent LHP Marco Gonzales outright to Round Rock (PCL) (Aug 2)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. Mitchell (IND): 37 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST against MIN
LAST NIGHT · WNBAO. Miles (MIN): 28 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST in a win over IND
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Claimed 1B Buddy Kennedy off waivers from Seattle (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · WNBAMercury: Acquired G Kelsey Plum from Los Angeles in exchange for G Monique Akoa Makani (A…
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Signed G Eliska Joklova to a rest-of-season hardship contract (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · NFLCowboys: Signed T Sebastian Gutierrez (Aug 2)
TONIGHT · WNBASEA @ NY, 8/3 - 7:00 PM EDT — NY -7.5
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Philadelphia Phillies
PHI#6 · National League

Philadelphia Phillies

59-53 (52.7%) · W2 · L10 3-7

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#15 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .496 · exp 55.6-56.4 vs act 59-53 · n=112 · luck +3.4W · thru 2026-08-02 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-28 → 2026-08-02 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 1 at MIA, 0-1, 2026-07-28. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 2 at MIA, 6-8, 2026-07-29. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 2 at BAL, 4-6, 2026-07-31. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 5 at BAL, 5-0, 2026-08-01. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 8 at BAL, 8-0, 2026-08-02. Covered the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber106 G.898
  2. 2Bryce Harper112 G.857
  3. 3Brandon Marsh107 G.769
  4. 4Bryson Stott106 G.724
  5. 5Trea Turner109 G.703

Home runs

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber106 G33
  2. 2Bryce Harper112 G23
  3. 3Brandon Marsh107 G16
  4. 4Trea Turner109 G16
  5. 5Alec Bohm107 G13

RBI

  1. 1Bryce Harper112 G66
  2. 2Kyle Schwarber106 G63
  3. 3Alec Bohm107 G60
  4. 4Bryson Stott106 G50
  5. 5Brandon Marsh107 G49

Batting average

  1. 1Brandon Marsh107 G.280
  2. 2Bryce Harper112 G.255
  3. 3Bryson Stott106 G.252
  4. 4Trea Turner109 G.250
  5. 5Kyle Schwarber106 G.247

Stolen bases

  1. 1Bryson Stott106 G19
  2. 2Trea Turner109 G17
  3. 3Brandon Marsh107 G10
  4. 4Bryce Harper112 G6
  5. 5Kyle Schwarber106 G2

ERA

  1. 1Cristopher Sánchez144.7 IP2.61
  2. 2Jesús Luzardo128.7 IP3.57
  3. 3Aaron Nola114.0 IP5.61

WHIP

  1. 1Jesús Luzardo128.7 IP1.19
  2. 2Cristopher Sánchez144.7 IP1.20
  3. 3Aaron Nola114.0 IP1.45

Strikeouts

  1. 1Cristopher Sánchez144.7 IP168
  2. 2Jesús Luzardo128.7 IP157
  3. 3Aaron Nola114.0 IP116

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.237vs .244Slight gap

OBP

.304vs .318Slight gap

SLG

.401vs .401League avg

OPS

.705vs .719Slight gap

HR

142

R / G

4.4

K / G

8.8

Pitching

ERA

4.22vs 4.18League avg

FIP (approx)

3.82vs 4.19Above avg

WHIP

1.31vs 1.30League avg

K / 9

10.0vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

3.0vs 3.4Above avg

BAA

.252

HR / 9

1.2

GP

112

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.40.81.11.51st · 0.75 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.331st2nd · 0.42 for / 0.25 against · margin +0.172nd3rd · 0.75 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.583rd4th · 0.25 for / 0.33 against · margin -0.084th5th · 0.50 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.175th6th · 1.42 for / 0.42 against · margin +1.00PEAK6th7th · 0.08 for / 0.83 against · margin -0.757th8th · 0.58 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.088th9th · 0.08 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.429thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

4.8 avg / 4.1 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

4.30

Blowout wins (4+)

8

Shutout games

2

Form last 30

13-17

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.3 runs

2457AVG 4.3071323345536789101112RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-06-27 → 2026-08-02

Record

13-17

Win pct

43.3%

Avg margin

-0.3

Longest W

2

Longest L

4

Upset wins

1

Favorite losses

12

2026-06-27 · @ NYM · L 2-6 · model gave 60%NYM2026-06-28 · @ NYM · W 5-4 · model gave 61%NYM2026-06-29 · vs PIT · L 7-11 · model gave 62%PIT2026-06-30 · vs PIT · W 8-0 · model gave 63%PIT2026-07-01 · vs PIT · W 10-6 · model gave 62%PIT2026-07-02 · vs PIT · L 1-6 · model gave 62%PIT2026-07-04 · @ KC · W 6-1 · model gave 57%KC2026-07-05 · @ KC · L 2-5 · model gave 55%KC2026-07-06 · @ KC · L 1-15 · model gave 53%KC2026-07-07 · @ CIN · W 4-1 · model gave 62%CIN2026-07-08 · @ CIN · L 5-11 · model gave 60%CIN2026-07-09 · @ CIN · W 1-0 · model gave 61%CIN2026-07-10 · @ DET · L 2-10 · model gave 58%DET2026-07-11 · @ DET · W 4-2 · model gave 58%DET2026-07-12 · @ DET · W 5-0 · model gave 58%DET2026-07-16 · vs NYM · L 1-4 · model gave 64%NYM2026-07-18 · vs NYM · W 6-1 · model gave 64%NYM2026-07-19 · vs NYM · L 1-6 · model gave 64%NYM2026-07-20 · vs LAD · W 10-7 · model gave 47%LAD2026-07-21 · vs LAD · L 1-2 · model gave 46%LAD2026-07-22 · vs LAD · L 5-9 · model gave 45%LAD2026-07-24 · vs NYY · L 0-1 · model gave 53%NYY2026-07-25 · vs NYY · L 1-3 · model gave 51%NYY2026-07-26 · vs NYY · W 11-4 · model gave 51%NYY2026-07-27 · @ MIA · L 7-8 · model gave 49%MIA2026-07-28 · @ MIA · L 0-1 · model gave 48%MIA2026-07-29 · @ MIA · L 6-8 · model gave 48%MIA2026-07-31 · @ BAL · L 4-6 · model gave 56%BAL2026-08-01 · @ BAL · W 5-0 · model gave 56%BAL2026-08-02 · @ BAL · W 8-0 · model gave 56%BAL

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

168 games · 2025-08-03 → 2026-08-02

Peak 1573 · Now 1520 · Trough 1483

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Placed OF Adolis García on the 60-day IL. Placed RF Steward Berroa on the paternity list. Activated RF Derek Hill. Recalled RF Gabriel Rincones Jr. from Lehigh Valley (IL).

  2. Jun 11

    Designated RHP Jackson Rutledge for assignment.

  3. Jun 9

    Sent LHP Kyle Backhus on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley (IL).

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Aaron Nola

A. Nola

SP · #27

Alec Bohm

A. Bohm

3B · #28

Andrew Painter

A. Painter

SP · #24

Brandon Marsh

B. Marsh

LF · #16

Bryan De La Cruz

B. De La Cruz

OF · #41

Bryce Harper

B. Harper

1B · #3

Bryson Stott

B. Stott

2B · #5

Chase Shugart

C. Shugart

RP · #55

Cristopher Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP · #61

Derek Hill

D. Hill

RF · #49

Edmundo Sosa

E. Sosa

LF · #33

Gabriel Rincones Jr.

G. Rincones Jr.

RF · #17

Garrett Stubbs

G. Stubbs

C · #21

J.T. Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto

C · #10

Jesus Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP · #44

Jhoan Duran

J. Duran

RP · #59

Jonathan Bowlan

J. Bowlan

RP · #52

Jose Alvarado

J. Alvarado

RP · #46

Justin Crawford

J. Crawford

CF · #2

Kyle Backhus

K. Backhus

RP · #19

Kyle Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH · #12

Orion Kerkering

O. Kerkering

RP · #50

Seth Johnson

S. Johnson

RP · #51

Tim Mayza

T. Mayza

RP · #37

Trea Turner

T. Turner

SS · #7

Zack Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP · #45

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 64-41
60%Last 30 · 252-168
Receipts →

Model picks on PHI

23-29 graded · 44.2% (95% CI 31.6-57.7) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26

All MLB · 698-590 graded

Tonight's graded board →