
39-33 (54.2%) · W1 · L10 6-4
Model verdict
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#18 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .476 · exp 34.2-37.8 vs act 39-33 · n=72 · luck +4.8W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-06-10 → 2026-06-15 · Full ATS profile →
Stat leaders
OPS
Home runs
RBI
Batting average
Stolen bases
ERA
WHIP
Strikeouts
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
HR
91
R / G
4.1
K / G
8.5
Pitching
ERA
FIP (approx)
WHIP
K / 9
BB / 9
BAA
.255
HR / 9
1.0
GP
73
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
4.9 avg / 4.2 allowed
Plate signature
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
4.00
Blowout wins (4+)
4
Shutout games
3
Form last 30
19-11
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 4.0 runs
Form heatmap
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-05-13 → 2026-06-15
Record
19-11
Win pct
63.3%
Avg margin
+0.5
Longest W
5
Longest L
3
Upset wins
5
Favorite losses
7
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
167 games · 2025-06-16 → 2026-06-15
Peak 1573 · Now 1540 · Trough 1483
Next 5 games
Recent transactions
Placed OF Adolis García on the 60-day IL. Placed RF Steward Berroa on the paternity list. Activated RF Derek Hill. Recalled RF Gabriel Rincones Jr. from Lehigh Valley (IL).
Designated RHP Jackson Rutledge for assignment.
Sent LHP Kyle Backhus on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley (IL).
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26

A. Nola
SP · #27

A. Bohm
3B · #28

A. Painter
SP · #24

B. Marsh
LF · #16

B. Harper
1B · #3

B. Stott
2B · #5

C. Shugart
RP · #55

C. Sanchez
SP · #61

D. Hill
RF · #49

E. Sosa
2B · #33

G. Rincones Jr.
RF · #17

G. Stubbs
C · #21

J.T. Realmuto
C · #10

J. Luzardo
SP · #44

J. Duran
RP · #59

J. Bowlan
RP · #52

J. Alvarado
RP · #46

J. Crawford
CF · #2

K. Schwarber
DH · #12

M. Lazar
RP · #60

O. Kerkering
RP · #50

R. Marchan
C · #13

T. Banks
RP · #58

T. Mayza
RP · #37

T. Turner
SS · #7

Z. Wheeler
SP · #45
Model picks on PHI
22-23 graded · 48.9% (95% CI 35.0-63.0) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26
All MLB · 594-464 graded