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PHI#5 · National League

Philadelphia Phillies

40-34 (54.1%) · L1 · L10 6-4

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#20 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .474 · exp 35.1-38.9 vs act 40-34 · n=74 · luck +4.9W · thru 2026-06-17 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-13 → 2026-06-17 · Full ATS profile →

Model picks on PHI

22-25 graded · 46.8% (95% CI 33.3-60.8) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26

All MLB · 605-483 graded

Tonight's graded board →

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

1Kyle Schwarber71 G.929
2Brandon Marsh69 G.857
3Bryce Harper74 G.844
4Bryson Stott68 G.684
5Alec Bohm70 G.649

Home runs

RBI

Batting average

1Brandon Marsh69 G.323
2Bryce Harper74 G.251
3Kyle Schwarber71 G.245
4Bryson Stott68 G.235
5Alec Bohm70 G.227

Stolen bases

1Trea Turner72 G15
2Bryson Stott68 G13
3Brandon Marsh69 G7
4Bryce Harper74 G5
5Adolis García67 G3

ERA

1Cristopher Sánchez99.0 IP1.82
2Jesús Luzardo85.7 IP4.20

WHIP

1Cristopher Sánchez99.0 IP1.09
2Jesús Luzardo85.7 IP1.31

Strikeouts

1Cristopher Sánchez99.0 IP116
2Jesús Luzardo85.7 IP97

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.229vs .243Below avg

OBP

.297vs .319Below avg

SLG

.388vs .398Slight gap

OPS

.685vs .718Slight gap

R / G

4.1

K / G

8.6

Pitching

ERA

4.09vs 4.18Slight edge

FIP (approx)

3.65vs 4.19Above avg

WHIP

1.30vs 1.31League avg

K / 9

9.5vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

2.8vs 3.5Above avg

BAA

.257

HR / 9

1.1

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

ForAgainst

5.2 avg / 4.8 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Avg runs / game

4.27

Blowout wins (4+)

Shutout games

Form last 30

19-11

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.3 runs

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

167 games · 2025-06-18 → 2026-06-17

Peak 1573 · Now 1530 · Trough 1483

Next 5 games

The road ahead

vsNYMpwr —

@WSHpwr 63

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves

Jun 12
Placed OF Adolis García on the 60-day IL. Placed RF Steward Berroa on the paternity list. Activated RF Derek Hill. Recalled RF Gabriel Rincones Jr. from Lehigh Valley (IL).
Jun 11
Designated RHP Jackson Rutledge for assignment.
Jun 9
Sent LHP Kyle Backhus on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley (IL).

Source · ESPN