HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
MLBTop 3
TOR 1@BOS 0
-24.4pphigh
MLBEnd 2
CHW 1@NYY 1
-1.2pphigh
MLBBot 1
SF 1@ATL 1
-2.9ppmedium
MLBBot 4
KC 0@WSH 2
+37.1pplow
MLBTop 2
NYM 0@CIN 4
+45.5pplow
MLBEnd 3
MIA 0@PHI 7
+43.3pplow
WNBA7:42 - 2nd
TOR 28@IND 34
+6.0ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RHP Daniel Palencia on the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
MLBTop 3
TOR 1@BOS 0
-24.4pphigh
MLBEnd 2
CHW 1@NYY 1
-1.2pphigh
MLBBot 1
SF 1@ATL 1
-2.9ppmedium
MLBBot 4
KC 0@WSH 2
+37.1pplow
MLBTop 2
NYM 0@CIN 4
+45.5pplow
MLBEnd 3
MIA 0@PHI 7
+43.3pplow
WNBA7:42 - 2nd
TOR 28@IND 34
+6.0ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RHP Daniel Palencia on the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
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Philadelphia Phillies
PHI#5 · National League

Philadelphia Phillies

39-33 (54.2%) · W1 · L10 6-4

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#18 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .476 · exp 34.2-37.8 vs act 39-33 · n=72 · luck +4.8W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-10 → 2026-06-15 · Full ATS profile →

WWon by 3 at TOR, 7-4, 2026-06-10. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 6 at MIL, 0-6, 2026-06-12. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 at MIL, 9-8, 2026-06-13. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 4 at MIL, 0-4, 2026-06-14. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 7 vs MIA, 7-0, 2026-06-15. Covered the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber70 G.925
  2. 2Brandon Marsh68 G.870
  3. 3Bryce Harper73 G.850
  4. 4Bryson Stott67 G.685
  5. 5Alec Bohm69 G.647

Home runs

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber70 G24
  2. 2Bryce Harper73 G15
  3. 3Brandon Marsh68 G9
  4. 4Alec Bohm69 G9
  5. 5Trea Turner71 G7

RBI

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber70 G42
  2. 2Bryce Harper73 G40
  3. 3Alec Bohm69 G38
  4. 4Bryson Stott67 G35
  5. 5Brandon Marsh68 G34

Batting average

  1. 1Brandon Marsh68 G.326
  2. 2Bryce Harper73 G.252
  3. 3Kyle Schwarber70 G.246
  4. 4Bryson Stott67 G.232
  5. 5Alec Bohm69 G.225

Stolen bases

  1. 1Trea Turner71 G14
  2. 2Bryson Stott67 G12
  3. 3Brandon Marsh68 G7
  4. 4Bryce Harper73 G5
  5. 5Adolis García67 G3

ERA

  1. 1Cristopher Sánchez99.0 IP1.82
  2. 2Jesús Luzardo81.7 IP4.19

WHIP

  1. 1Cristopher Sánchez99.0 IP1.09
  2. 2Jesús Luzardo81.7 IP1.30

Strikeouts

  1. 1Cristopher Sánchez99.0 IP116
  2. 2Jesús Luzardo81.7 IP92

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.230vs .243Below avg

OBP

.299vs .319Below avg

SLG

.390vs .398Slight gap

OPS

.689vs .717Slight gap

HR

91

R / G

4.1

K / G

8.5

Pitching

ERA

4.03vs 4.18Slight edge

FIP (approx)

3.57vs 4.19Above avg

WHIP

1.29vs 1.31League avg

K / 9

9.5vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

2.8vs 3.5Above avg

BAA

.255

HR / 9

1.0

GP

73

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.25 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.251st2nd · 0.92 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.50PEAK2nd3rd · 0.75 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.333rd4th · 0.58 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.174th5th · 0.67 for / 0.67 against · margin +0.005th6th · 0.75 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.426th7th · 0.67 for / 0.75 against · margin -0.087th8th · 0.25 for / 0.33 against · margin -0.088th9th · 0.08 for / 0.33 against · margin -0.259thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

4.9 avg / 4.2 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

4.00

Blowout wins (4+)

4

Shutout games

3

Form last 30

19-11

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.0 runs

2457AVG 4.0304127334536789101112RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-05-13 → 2026-06-15

Record

19-11

Win pct

63.3%

Avg margin

+0.5

Longest W

5

Longest L

3

Upset wins

5

Favorite losses

7

2026-05-13 · @ BOS · L 1-3 · model gave 56%BOS2026-05-14 · @ BOS · W 3-1 · model gave 57%BOS2026-05-15 · @ PIT · W 11-9 · model gave 56%PIT2026-05-16 · @ PIT · W 6-0 · model gave 55%PIT2026-05-17 · @ PIT · W 6-0 · model gave 53%PIT2026-05-18 · vs CIN · W 5-4 · model gave 54%CIN2026-05-19 · vs CIN · L 1-4 · model gave 53%CIN2026-05-20 · vs CIN · L 4-9 · model gave 53%CIN2026-05-22 · vs CLE · L 0-1 · model gave 51%CLE2026-05-23 · vs CLE · W 3-0 · model gave 51%CLE2026-05-24 · vs CLE · L 1-3 · model gave 52%CLE2026-05-25 · @ SD · W 3-0 · model gave 48%SD2026-05-26 · @ SD · W 4-3 · model gave 48%SD2026-05-27 · @ SD · W 3-0 · model gave 47%SD2026-05-29 · @ LAD · L 2-4 · model gave 35%LAD2026-05-30 · @ LAD · W 4-3 · model gave 36%LAD2026-05-31 · @ LAD · L 1-9 · model gave 36%LAD2026-06-02 · vs SD · W 3-2 · model gave 56%SD2026-06-03 · vs SD · W 3-2 · model gave 56%SD2026-06-04 · vs SD · W 6-4 · model gave 57%SD2026-06-05 · vs CHW · W 8-6 · model gave 56%CHW2026-06-06 · vs CHW · L 3-6 · model gave 54%CHW2026-06-07 · vs CHW · W 9-5 · model gave 54%CHW2026-06-08 · @ TOR · W 5-2 · model gave 58%TOR2026-06-09 · @ TOR · L 2-3 · model gave 56%TOR2026-06-10 · @ TOR · W 7-4 · model gave 57%TOR2026-06-12 · @ MIL · L 0-6 · model gave 41%MIL2026-06-13 · @ MIL · W 9-8 · model gave 41%MIL2026-06-14 · @ MIL · L 0-4 · model gave 41%MIL2026-06-15 · vs MIA · W 7-0 · model gave 56%MIA

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

167 games · 2025-06-16 → 2026-06-15

Peak 1573 · Now 1540 · Trough 1483

Next 5 games

The road ahead

vsMIApwr 67
vsNYMpwr —
vsNYMpwr —
vsNYMpwr —
@WSHpwr 57

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Placed OF Adolis García on the 60-day IL. Placed RF Steward Berroa on the paternity list. Activated RF Derek Hill. Recalled RF Gabriel Rincones Jr. from Lehigh Valley (IL).

  2. Jun 11

    Designated RHP Jackson Rutledge for assignment.

  3. Jun 9

    Sent LHP Kyle Backhus on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley (IL).

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Aaron Nola

A. Nola

SP · #27

Alec Bohm

A. Bohm

3B · #28

Andrew Painter

A. Painter

SP · #24

Brandon Marsh

B. Marsh

LF · #16

Bryce Harper

B. Harper

1B · #3

Bryson Stott

B. Stott

2B · #5

Chase Shugart

C. Shugart

RP · #55

Cristopher Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP · #61

Derek Hill

D. Hill

RF · #49

Edmundo Sosa

E. Sosa

2B · #33

Gabriel Rincones Jr.

G. Rincones Jr.

RF · #17

Garrett Stubbs

G. Stubbs

C · #21

J.T. Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto

C · #10

Jesus Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP · #44

Jhoan Duran

J. Duran

RP · #59

Jonathan Bowlan

J. Bowlan

RP · #52

Jose Alvarado

J. Alvarado

RP · #46

Justin Crawford

J. Crawford

CF · #2

Kyle Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH · #12

Max Lazar

M. Lazar

RP · #60

Orion Kerkering

O. Kerkering

RP · #50

Rafael Marchan

R. Marchan

C · #13

Tanner Banks

T. Banks

RP · #58

Tim Mayza

T. Mayza

RP · #37

Trea Turner

T. Turner

SS · #7

Zack Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP · #45

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 62-35
61%Last 30 · 299-189
Receipts →

Model picks on PHI

22-23 graded · 48.9% (95% CI 35.0-63.0) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26

All MLB · 594-464 graded

Tonight's graded board →