Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at HOU?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 22, 2026

FINAL+3HOU

MIA

52-51

HOU

50-54

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

26,099 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

HOU no-vig %

51.7%

open 50.6% · +1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
59.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.2%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-113

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

50.6%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at HOU?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.6pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

HOU

★ best

-112DraftKings

edge +8.6pp · implied 50.5%

Book	MIA	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-107	-112★	+8.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

HOU vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.7± 0.9high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.0± 2.1high
Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.3± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

HOU

.732

OPS

.720

.737

.325

OBP

◀

.318

.321

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.64

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.63

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.37

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

MIA 2 · HOU 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
HOU	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.332	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Stowers1B	.229	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.246	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
X. Edwards2B	.290	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.285	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. ConineRF	.268	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Sanoja3B	.275	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. MackC	.243	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		34	2	7	2	0	2	6

Player

.332

.229

.246

.290

.285

.268

.275

.243

.243

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AlcantaraSP	7.0	9	5	5	1	3	108
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
Team	8.0	9	5	5	1	5	126

Player

S. AlcantaraSP

7.0

108

C. FaucherRP

1.0

Team

8.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.302	4	2	3	1	1	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.328	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
I. Paredes3B	.263	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
L. Wade Jr.LF	.170	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. DiazC	.238	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Walker1B	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
L. SpenceCF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.242	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. VazquezC	.210	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.231	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	.210	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	9	5	3	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. LambertSP	6.0	6	2	2	2	3	89
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
B. AbreuRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	6	127

Team

MIA

HOU

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

HOU vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.