Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Jul 22, 2026

MIA

37-38

PregameWed, 8:10 PM EDT

HOU

35-41

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesHOU wins series 4-2

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
8.0± 1.4low
Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.2± 2.5low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Otto LopezMIA
1.4± 1.0high
Liam HicksMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 2.5high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.9± 3.4high
Liam HicksMIA
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
1.0± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 1.9high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.2± 3.1medium
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

HOU

.708

OPS

.718

▶

.730

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.32

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.53

4.13

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.86

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

8.8

K / 9

8.5

8.7

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Miami Marlins at Houston Astros

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league