NFLAnalytics2025
Sixteen games, weighed against the number.
Key dates · schedule
- Sep 9Regular season kickoff · Seahawks–PatriotsSource ↗
The Model · NFL
855 NFL games graded — 63% called right.
No NFL slate today — we’re between seasons. The all-time calibration record is the number that doesn’t reset between games. See the receipts →
Model accuracy · NFL
How the NFL model grades
All time
62.7%
855 games
By confidence tier · all-time
★ Locks
75.9%
187g
+15.9
Edges
67.1%
240g
+12.1
Leans
51.9%
239g
-0.1
Tossups
57.7%
189g
+7.7
Reliability curve · is the NFL model calibrated?›
855 picks · 7 buckets
| Predicted | Actual win rate | Sample | 95% CI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 to 55% | 57.5% | 130 of 226 | 51–64% | calibrated |
| 55 to 60% | 54.0% | 129 of 239 | 48–60% | calibrated |
| 60 to 65% | 66.3% | 124 of 187 | 59–73% | calibrated |
| 65 to 70% | 74.1% | 86 of 116 | 65–81% | calibrated |
| 70 to 75% | 73.1% | 38 of 52 | 60–83% | calibrated |
| 75 to 80% | 72.7% | 16 of 22 | 52–87% | calibrated |
| 80 to 85% | 100.0% | 13 of 13 | 77–100% | calibrated |
Usage & efficiency · 2025
Opportunity
Who earns the touches and what they do with them — weighted opportunity (WOPR), target share, and fantasy points over expected. The usage view the fantasy sites charge for. Via nflverse.
Weighted opportunity
Workhorses
- 1Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ0.92
- 2Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA0.87
- 3Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET0.75
- 4Justin JeffersonWR · MIN0.74
- 5Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN0.74
- 6Drake LondonWR · ATL0.73
Target share
Target hogs
- 1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA36%
- 2Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ35%
- 3Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN32%
- 4Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET32%
- 5Puka NacuaWR · LA31%
- 6Justin JeffersonWR · MIN31%
Fantasy points over expected
Over expected
- 1Puka NacuaWR · LA+69.8
- 2Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA+65.1
- 3Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET+61.1
- 4Jonathan TaylorRB · IND+56.5
- 5De'Von AchaneRB · MIA+56.1
- 6Tucker KraftTE · GB+46.1
Explore NFL
Standings · ladder view
Where every team stands
Bar lengths track win-pct vs the conference leader. Dashed line marks the playoff cut.
American Football Conference
Ravens
Bills
Bengals
Browns
Broncos
Texans
Colts
Jaguars
Chiefs
Chargers
Raiders
Dolphins
Patriots
Jets
Steelers
TitansNational Football Conference
Panthers
Falcons
Bears
Cowboys
Lions
Packers
Rams
Vikings
Saints
Giants
Eagles
Seahawks
49ers
Buccaneers
Commanders
CardinalsAround the league
2026 Draft · Combine class
The freaks of this class
Top athletic composites · 317 prospects in the database
Jeff Caldwell
Cincinnati · 6'5" · 216lb
60
composite
4.31
40 yd
42″
Vert
134″
Broad
Charles Demmings
Stephen F. Austin St. · 6'1" · 193lb
56
composite
4.41
40 yd
42″
Vert
132″
Broad
Kendrick Law
Kentucky · 5'11" · 203lb
55
composite
4.45
40 yd
42″
Vert
128″
Broad
Zachariah Branch
Georgia · 5'8 5/8" · 177lb
55
composite
4.35
40 yd
38″
Vert
125″
Broad
Jalon Kilgore
South Carolina · 6'1 3/8" · 210lb
53
composite
4.40
40 yd
37″
Vert
130″
Broad
Seth McGowan
Kentucky · 6'0 2/8" · 223lb
53
composite
4.49
40 yd
42.5″
Vert
131″
Broad
Statistical leaders
Top performers
2024-25 regular season
Passing Yards
Pass Yds
Passing Touchdowns
Pass TD
Rushing Yards
Rush Yds
Rushing Touchdowns
Rush TD
Receiving Yards
Rec Yds
Receiving Touchdowns
Rec TD
Against the spread
Team ATS standings
2025 regular season·92 of 92 games graded·Refreshed every 6h
| #▲ | Team⇅ | Record⇅ | PCT⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JaguarsJAX | — | — |
| 2 | SaintsNO | — | — |
| 3 | PatriotsNE | — | — |
| 4 | BearsCHI | — | — |
| 5 | BengalsCIN | — | — |
| 6 | TexansHOU | — | — |
| 7 | ChargersLAC | — | — |
| 8 | RamsLAR | — | — |
| 9 | VikingsMIN | — | — |
| 10 | SteelersPIT | — | — |
| 11 | SeahawksSEA | — | — |
| 12 | 49ersSF | — | — |
| 13 | CommandersWSH | — | — |
| 14 | FalconsATL | — | — |
| 15 | BillsBUF | — | — |
| 16 | PanthersCAR | — | — |
| 17 | BrownsCLE | — | — |
| 18 | RaidersLV | — | — |
| 19 | EaglesPHI | — | — |
| 20 | LionsDET | — | — |
| 21 | PackersGB | — | — |
| 22 | DolphinsMIA | — | — |
| 23 | GiantsNYG | — | — |
| 24 | RavensBAL | — | — |
| 25 | BroncosDEN | — | — |
| 26 | ColtsIND | — | — |
| 27 | TitansTEN | — | — |
| 28 | ChiefsKC | — | — |
| 29 | CardinalsARI | — | — |
| 30 | JetsNYJ | — | — |
| 31 | BuccaneersTB | — | — |
| 32 | CowboysDAL | — | — |
NFL · Last week's heat
Top 5 fantasy finishes
2025 Super Bowl · PPR scoring · pulled from nflverse
- #1KEKenneth Walker IIIRBSEA
135 rush yd · 2 rec / 26 yd
18.1
PPR
- #2
Mack HollinsWRNE4 rec / 78 yd · 1 rec TD
17.8
PPR
- #3
Drake MayeQBNE295 pass yd · 2 pass TD · 37 rush yd
17.5
PPR
- #4
Rhamondre StevensonRBNE23 rush yd · 5 rec / 40 yd · 1 rec TD
17.3
PPR
- #5
AJ BarnerTESEA4 rec / 54 yd · 1 rec TD
15.4
PPR