Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 25, 2026

FINAL+3TB

CLE

54-52

61-43

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

24,100 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

54.7%

open 55.3% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.6%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
58.8%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.1%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.03

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-137

Close price

-121

Open no-vig

55.3%

Close no-vig

52.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.9pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

CLE

no live price

★ best

-114DraftKings

edge +7.9pp · implied 51.0%

Book	CLE	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	-105	-114★	+7.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 117 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.1high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.2± 2.7high
Nick FortesTB
1.8± 2.2high
Jonny DeLucaTB
1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high
Jonny DeLucaTB
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaTB
3.2± 3.3high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Slade CecconiCLE
2.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

.680

OPS

.720

▶

.732

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.329

3.95

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.44

3.76

Team ERA

4.18

3.75

1.26

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

CLE 0 · TB 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TB	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Bazzana2B	.242	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.252	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
P. BaileyC	.237	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. HalpinCF	.193	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HedgesC	.287	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. FryRF	.186	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	0	5	0	0	1	8

Player

.248

.239

.242

.271

.231

.211

.252

.237

.193

.287

.186

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	6.0	9	3	3	2	5	107
W. DionRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	29
Team	8.0	9	3	3	2	9	136

Player

T. BibeeSP

6.0

107

W. DionRP

2.0

Team

8.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.306	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
J. Aranda1B	.282	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. Caminero3B	.285	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.202	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.293	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.227	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
R. Palacios2B	.234	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Williamson2B	.248	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.233	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. WallsSS	.224	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	9	3	0	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	6.0	4	0	0	0	5	84
C. SulserRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
B. BakerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	8	126

Team

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.