Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+12BOS

CHW

59-53

214

BOS

61-51

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

37,669 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BOS no-vig %

53.2%

open 52.6% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
61.4%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.3%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.7%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.83

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-122

Close price

-132

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

54.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+61.6pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

CHW

no live price

BOS

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +61.6pp · implied 0.0%

Book	CHW	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	+138	—★	+61.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 118 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 1.0high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.7± 2.5high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
3.1± 3.4high
Luis CastilloCHW
2.5± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

BOS

.722

OPS

.720

.717

.316

OBP

.318

.317

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.36

4.08

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.52

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.23

8.6

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

CHW 2 · BOS 14 (by 12)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2
BOS	6	0	0	0	1	6	0	1	14

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.273	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. Murakami1B	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
M. Vargas3B	.236	2	0	0	1	0	1	2
R. GrichukDH	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.216	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. BartC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. DoyleCF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. MontgomeryRF	.235	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
L. AcunaSS	.244	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. AntonacciLF	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.265	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	2	6	2	0	5	8

Player

.273

.244

.236

.275

.216

.000

.500

.235

.244

.273

.265

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MartinSP	5.0	10	9	9	2	1	91
E. FeddeSP	3.0	5	5	4	1	1	50
Team	8.0	15	14	13	3	2	141

Player

D. MartinSP

5.0

E. FeddeSP

3.0

Team

8.0

141

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Sogard3B	.259	4	2	2	0	0	1	0
C. RafaelaCF	.289	3	2	1	2	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.251	4	2	2	2	2	1	0
W. Contreras1B	.286	4	2	2	2	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.268	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.247	3	2	2	4	1	1	0
J. DuranLF	.203	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
A. MonasterioSS	.263	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
C. WongC	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Seigler2B	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	14	15	14	4	3	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SandovalSP	5.0	6	2	2	4	5	89
G. WeissertRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	14
E. MillerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
B. BelloSP	3.0	0	0	0	0	2	28
Team	9.0	6	2	2	5	8	135

Team

CHW

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BOS vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.