HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
MLBBot 3
DET 1@ATH 1
+0.5pphigh
MLBEnd 1
BOS 0@LAD 0
-0.2ppmedium
MLBBot 1
MIN 0@SEA 0
-2.2ppmedium
MLBTop 4
KC 0@COL 1
+29.9pphigh
MLBTop 4
MIL 1@LAA 0
-23.3ppmedium
MLBTop 3
SF 0@SD 2
+34.4pplow
MLBBot 6
TEX 2@HOU 6
+41.8pplow
WNBA47.6 - 1st
IND 24@POR 21
TONIGHTGraded picks 4-6 so far (MLB 2-6, WNBA 2-0)
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Burke (CHW): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST in a win over NY
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Cameron (KC): 8.0 IP · 7 K against MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBTigers: Recalled LHP Enmanuel De Jesus from Toledo (IL) (Jul 31)
MLBBot 3
DET 1@ATH 1
+0.5pphigh
MLBEnd 1
BOS 0@LAD 0
-0.2ppmedium
MLBBot 1
MIN 0@SEA 0
-2.2ppmedium
MLBTop 4
KC 0@COL 1
+29.9pphigh
MLBTop 4
MIL 1@LAA 0
-23.3ppmedium
MLBTop 3
SF 0@SD 2
+34.4pplow
MLBBot 6
TEX 2@HOU 6
+41.8pplow
WNBA47.6 - 1st
IND 24@POR 21
TONIGHTGraded picks 4-6 so far (MLB 2-6, WNBA 2-0)
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Burke (CHW): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST in a win over NY
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Cameron (KC): 8.0 IP · 7 K against MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBTigers: Recalled LHP Enmanuel De Jesus from Toledo (IL) (Jul 31)
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Arizona Diamondbacks
ARI#5 · National League

Arizona Diamondbacks

58-52 (52.7%) · W3 · L10 7-3

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#14 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .503 · exp 55.3-54.7 vs act 58-52 · n=110 · luck +2.7W · thru 2026-07-31 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-26 → 2026-07-31 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 3 at WSH, 7-10, 2026-07-26. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 1 at PIT, 2-3, 2026-07-27. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 at PIT, 8-7, 2026-07-28. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 3 at PIT, 3-0, 2026-07-29. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 3 at CLE, 4-1, 2026-07-31. Covered the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Corbin Carroll106 G.818
  2. 2Ketel Marte105 G.759
  3. 3Nolan Arenado104 G.735
  4. 4Geraldo Perdomo106 G.705

Home runs

  1. 1Ketel Marte105 G19
  2. 2Corbin Carroll106 G15
  3. 3Nolan Arenado104 G14
  4. 4Geraldo Perdomo106 G8

RBI

  1. 1Ketel Marte105 G62
  2. 2Nolan Arenado104 G50
  3. 3Corbin Carroll106 G49
  4. 4Geraldo Perdomo106 G38

Batting average

  1. 1Ketel Marte105 G.254
  2. 2Corbin Carroll106 G.247
  3. 3Nolan Arenado104 G.242
  4. 4Geraldo Perdomo106 G.231

Stolen bases

  1. 1Geraldo Perdomo106 G17
  2. 2Corbin Carroll106 G15
  3. 3Ketel Marte105 G4
  4. 4Nolan Arenado104 G3

ERA

  1. 1Eduardo Rodriguez130.7 IP2.48

WHIP

  1. 1Eduardo Rodriguez130.7 IP1.21

Strikeouts

  1. 1Eduardo Rodriguez130.7 IP88

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.241vs .244League avg

OBP

.313vs .318Slight gap

SLG

.391vs .401Slight gap

OPS

.704vs .720Slight gap

HR

104

R / G

4.5

K / G

7.2

Pitching

ERA

4.17vs 4.18League avg

FIP (approx)

4.44vs 4.19Below avg

WHIP

1.29vs 1.30League avg

K / 9

6.8vs 8.5Below avg

BB / 9

3.0vs 3.4Above avg

BAA

.252

HR / 9

1.2

GP

110

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.40.81.11.51st · 0.42 for / 0.25 against · margin +0.171st2nd · 0.33 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.172nd3rd · 0.33 for / 1.00 against · margin -0.673rd4th · 0.75 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.584th5th · 0.75 for / 0.75 against · margin +0.005th6th · 1.17 for / 0.08 against · margin +1.08PEAK6th7th · 0.42 for / 0.58 against · margin -0.177th8th · 1.08 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.588th9th · 0.25 for / 0.92 against · margin -0.679thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

5.5 avg / 4.4 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

5.00

Blowout wins (4+)

6

Shutout games

0

Form last 30

17-13

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 5.0 runs

2356AVG 5.003142436435674891011RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-06-26 → 2026-07-31

Record

17-13

Win pct

56.7%

Avg margin

+0.8

Longest W

4

Longest L

3

Upset wins

14

Favorite losses

2

2026-06-26 · @ TB · L 1-6 · model gave 27%TB2026-06-27 · @ TB · L 2-4 · model gave 29%TB2026-06-28 · @ TB · L 1-5 · model gave 29%TB2026-06-29 · vs SF · W 5-4 · model gave 47%SF2026-06-30 · vs SF · W 8-2 · model gave 48%SF2026-07-01 · vs SF · L 4-6 · model gave 51%SF2026-07-03 · vs MIL · L 4-7 · model gave 44%MIL2026-07-04 · vs MIL · W 4-3 · model gave 45%MIL2026-07-05 · vs MIL · L 2-3 · model gave 44%MIL2026-07-06 · @ SD · W 8-0 · model gave 44%SD2026-07-07 · @ SD · L 1-4 · model gave 43%SD2026-07-08 · @ SD · L 4-10 · model gave 45%SD2026-07-09 · @ SD · W 3-1 · model gave 45%SD2026-07-10 · @ LAD · W 9-3 · model gave 35%LAD2026-07-11 · @ LAD · W 9-2 · model gave 35%LAD2026-07-12 · @ LAD · W 5-3 · model gave 35%LAD2026-07-17 · vs STL · L 4-5 · model gave 49%STL2026-07-18 · vs STL · W 5-3 · model gave 49%STL2026-07-19 · vs STL · W 8-7 · model gave 50%STL2026-07-20 · vs ATH · L 2-5 · model gave 63%ATH2026-07-21 · vs ATH · W 6-5 · model gave 63%ATH2026-07-22 · vs ATH · W 15-5 · model gave 63%ATH2026-07-23 · @ STL · W 10-6 · model gave 45%STL2026-07-24 · @ WSH · W 3-2 · model gave 45%WSH2026-07-25 · @ WSH · L 3-5 · model gave 45%WSH2026-07-26 · @ WSH · L 7-10 · model gave 46%WSH2026-07-27 · @ PIT · L 2-3 · model gave 47%PIT2026-07-28 · @ PIT · W 8-7 · model gave 48%PIT2026-07-29 · @ PIT · W 3-0 · model gave 48%PIT2026-07-31 · @ CLE · W 4-1 · model gave 41%CLE

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

163 games · 2025-08-02 → 2026-07-31

Peak 1522 · Now 1502 · Trough 1443

Next 5 games

The road ahead

@CLEpwr —
@CLEpwr —
vsSDpwr 58
vsSDpwr 58
vsSDpwr 58

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

4 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Designated C Aramis Garcia for assignment. Reinstated UTL Jordan Lawlar from the 60-day IL.

  2. Jun 10

    Sent 1B Carlos Santana on a rehab assignment to Reno (PCL).

  3. Jun 8

    Sent LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a rehab assignment to ACL D-Backs. Agreed to terms with RHP Oscar Echegarreta on a minor league contract.

  4. Jun 7

    Reinstated RHP Taylor Clarke. Optioned LHP Philip Abner to Reno (PCL). Agreed to terms with OF Max Kepler on a one-year contract, who remains on the restricted list.

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

A

A. Del Castillo

DH · #25

Brandon Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP · #32

Brandyn Garcia

B. Garcia

RP · #55

Corbin Carroll

C. Carroll

RF · #7

Eduardo Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP · #57

Gabriel Moreno

G. Moreno

C · #14

Geraldo Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS · #2

Gerardo Carrillo

G. Carrillo

RP · #68

Ildemaro Vargas

I. Vargas

1B · #6

James McCann

J. McCann

C · #8

Jonathan Loaisiga

J. Loaisiga

RP · #43

Jorge Barrosa

J. Barrosa

CF · #1

Juan Morillo

J. Morillo

RP · #62

Ketel Marte

K. Marte

2B · #4

Kevin Ginkel

K. Ginkel

RP · #37

Kohl Drake

K. Drake

SP · #58

Max Kepler

M. Kepler

LF · #22

Merrill Kelly

M. Kelly

SP · #29

Mitch Bratt

M. Bratt

SP · #60

Nolan Arenado

N. Arenado

3B · #28

Paul Sewald

P. Sewald

RP · #38

Ryan Thompson

R. Thompson

RP · #81

Ryan Waldschmidt

R. Waldschmidt

CF · #15

Taylor Clarke

T. Clarke

RP · #45

Tim Tawa

T. Tawa

LF · #13

Tyler Locklear

T. Locklear

1B · #31

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 60-42
60%Last 30 · 250-170
Receipts →

Model picks on ARI

21-14 graded · 60.0% (95% CI 43.6-74.4) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-31

All MLB · 698-590 graded

Tonight's graded board →