Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at DET?

The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 23, 2026

FINAL+1DET

43-61

DET

49-54

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

35,548 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

64.3%

open 63.6% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.8%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.66

CLV pp

Open price

+163

Close price

+168

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

35.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at DET?: The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.4pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

★ best

+158DraftKings

edge +10.4pp · implied 36.4%

DET

no live price

Book	KC	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	+158★	-210	+10.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

131

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high
Michael WachaKC
4.7± 2.0high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
1.5± 1.7low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low
Colt KeithDET
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
2.7± 3.5low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.5high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.3high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

DET

.711

OPS

.720

▶

.731

.313

OBP

.318

▶

.319

4.17

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

4.85

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.56

1.43

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.21

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

KC 3 · DET 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	3
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.240	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. ThomasCF	.236	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.230	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
S. PerezDH	.209	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Massey2B	.274	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
I. CollinsLF	.245	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
J. Rojas3B	.265	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
N. Loftin3B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. VelazquezSS	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TolbertSS	.328	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	9	3	1	5	7

Player

.240

.236

.230

.209

.274

.245

.265

.247

.143

.328

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DobnakSP	5.0	4	0	0	1	3	76
M. StrahmRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	20
S. CruzRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	29
Team	8.0	10	4	4	2	6	142

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Torres2B	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Keith3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.285	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.274	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
K. CarpenterRF	.208	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.206	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
Z. McKinstry2B	.197	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.160	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
H. Lee2B	.260	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. VierlingCF	.209	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	10	4	1	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MeltonSP	5.0	5	2	2	4	5	90
T. HoltonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	26
J. WaguespackRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
D. AndersonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	18
D. SommersRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	11
K. FinneganRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	9.0	9	3	3	5	7	151

Team

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

DET vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.