HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Bradish (BAL): 7.2 IP · 12 K · 1 ER in a win over SEA — Standout Index 94
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Stowers (MIA): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PHI — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. McLean (NYM): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. Ray (SF): 6.1 IP · 8 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Citron (WSH): 26 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ IND, 6/18 - 7:30 PM EDT — IND -1.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Bradish (BAL): 7.2 IP · 12 K · 1 ER in a win over SEA — Standout Index 94
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Stowers (MIA): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PHI — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. McLean (NYM): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. Ray (SF): 6.1 IP · 8 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Citron (WSH): 26 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ IND, 6/18 - 7:30 PM EDT — IND -1.5
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Boston Red Sox
BOS#12 · American League

Boston Red Sox

29-42 (40.8%) · L3 · L10 3-7

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#17 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .481 · exp 34.1-36.9 vs act 29-42 · n=71 · luck -5.1W · thru 2026-06-17 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-12 → 2026-06-17 · Full ATS profile →

WWon by 9 vs TEX, 10-1, 2026-06-12. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 3 vs TEX, 6-3, 2026-06-13. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 2 vs TEX, 4-6, 2026-06-14. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 5 vs TOR, 1-6, 2026-06-16. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 3 vs TOR, 0-3, 2026-06-17. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Willson Contreras69 G.940
  2. 2Ceddanne Rafaela68 G.788
  3. 3Wilyer Abreu70 G.770
  4. 4Jarren Duran66 G.669
  5. 5Caleb Durbin64 G.557

Home runs

  1. 1Willson Contreras69 G16
  2. 2Jarren Duran66 G12
  3. 3Wilyer Abreu70 G8
  4. 4Ceddanne Rafaela68 G7
  5. 5Caleb Durbin64 G3

RBI

  1. 1Willson Contreras69 G43
  2. 2Jarren Duran66 G37
  3. 3Wilyer Abreu70 G34
  4. 4Ceddanne Rafaela68 G32
  5. 5Caleb Durbin64 G26

Batting average

  1. 1Willson Contreras69 G.294
  2. 2Ceddanne Rafaela68 G.286
  3. 3Wilyer Abreu70 G.278
  4. 4Jarren Duran66 G.213
  5. 5Caleb Durbin64 G.190

Stolen bases

  1. 1Jarren Duran66 G11
  2. 2Ceddanne Rafaela68 G7
  3. 3Wilyer Abreu70 G5
  4. 4Caleb Durbin64 G5
  5. 5Willson Contreras69 G1

ERA

  1. 1Connelly Early75.7 IP3.81

WHIP

  1. 1Connelly Early75.7 IP1.32

Strikeouts

  1. 1Connelly Early75.7 IP72

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.245vs .243League avg

OBP

.314vs .319Slight gap

SLG

.381vs .398Slight gap

OPS

.695vs .718Slight gap

HR

59

R / G

3.9

K / G

8.3

Pitching

ERA

3.92vs 4.18Above avg

FIP (approx)

3.99vs 4.19Slight edge

WHIP

1.28vs 1.31Slight edge

K / 9

8.6vs 8.5Slight edge

BB / 9

3.1vs 3.5Above avg

BAA

.247

HR / 9

1.1

GP

71

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.40.81.11.51st · 0.25 for / 0.83 against · margin -0.581st2nd · 0.17 for / 0.25 against · margin -0.082nd3rd · 0.67 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.25PEAK3rd4th · 0.08 for / 0.58 against · margin -0.504th5th · 0.92 for / 0.83 against · margin +0.085th6th · 0.25 for / 0.25 against · margin +0.006th7th · 0.25 for / 0.08 against · margin +0.177th8th · 1.08 for / 0.83 against · margin +0.258th9th · 0.17 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.009thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

3.8 avg / 4.3 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

4.07

Blowout wins (4+)

6

Shutout games

1

Form last 30

12-18

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.1 runs

1345AVG 4.10515253243536728291011RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-05-13 → 2026-06-17

Record

12-18

Win pct

40.0%

Avg margin

+0.0

Longest W

3

Longest L

4

Upset wins

8

Favorite losses

5

2026-05-13 · vs PHI · W 3-1 · model gave 44%PHI2026-05-14 · vs PHI · L 1-3 · model gave 43%PHI2026-05-15 · @ ATL · L 2-3 · model gave 35%ATL2026-05-16 · @ ATL · W 3-2 · model gave 34%ATL2026-05-17 · @ ATL · L 1-8 · model gave 34%ATL2026-05-18 · @ KC · W 3-1 · model gave 52%KC2026-05-19 · @ KC · W 7-1 · model gave 52%KC2026-05-20 · @ KC · W 4-3 · model gave 52%KC2026-05-22 · vs MIN · L 6-8 · model gave 49%MIN2026-05-23 · vs MIN · L 2-4 · model gave 49%MIN2026-05-24 · vs MIN · L 5-6 · model gave 50%MIN2026-05-26 · vs ATL · L 6-7 · model gave 40%ATL2026-05-27 · vs ATL · W 8-0 · model gave 39%ATL2026-05-28 · vs ATL · L 2-10 · model gave 41%ATL2026-05-29 · @ CLE · L 3-4 · model gave 40%CLE2026-05-30 · @ CLE · W 9-1 · model gave 40%CLE2026-05-31 · @ CLE · W 9-4 · model gave 40%CLE2026-06-02 · vs BAL · L 2-4 · model gave 54%BAL2026-06-03 · vs BAL · W 8-1 · model gave 55%BAL2026-06-04 · vs BAL · L 2-8 · model gave 55%BAL2026-06-05 · @ NYY · W 5-3 · model gave 31%NYY2026-06-07 · @ NYY · L 1-6 · model gave 29%NYY2026-06-08 · @ TB · L 1-3 · model gave 34%TB2026-06-09 · @ TB · L 3-4 · model gave 34%TB2026-06-10 · @ TB · L 5-7 · model gave 36%TB2026-06-12 · vs TEX · W 10-1 · model gave 50%TEX2026-06-13 · vs TEX · W 6-3 · model gave 50%TEX2026-06-14 · vs TEX · L 4-6 · model gave 49%TEX2026-06-16 · vs TOR · L 1-6 · model gave 51%TOR2026-06-17 · vs TOR · L 0-3 · model gave 51%TOR

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

162 games · 2025-06-18 → 2026-06-17

Peak 1564 · Now 1454 · Trough 1454

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves
  1. Jun 10

    Recalled LHP Jake Bennett from Worcester (IL). Optioned LHP Alec Gamboa to Worcester.

  2. Jun 9

    Reinstated RHP Garrett Whitlock from the 15-day IL. Optioned 2B Anthony Seigler to Worcester (IL).

  3. Jun 8

    Optioned LHP Joe La Sorsa to Worcester (IL). Recalled OF Nate Eaton from Worcester.

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Andruw Monasterio

A. Monasterio

SS · #32

Aroldis Chapman

A. Chapman

RP · #44

Caleb Durbin

C. Durbin

3B · #5

Carlos Narvaez

C. Narvaez

C · #75

Ceddanne Rafaela

C. Rafaela

CF · #3

Connelly Early

C. Early

SP · #71

Connor Wong

C. Wong

C · #12

Danny Coulombe

D. Coulombe

RP · #67

Garrett Whitlock

G. Whitlock

RP · #22

Greg Weissert

G. Weissert

RP · #57

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

I. Kiner-Falefa

2B · #2

Jake Bennett

J. Bennett

SP · #64

Jarren Duran

J. Duran

LF · #16

Justin Slaten

J. Slaten

RP · #63

Marcelo Mayer

M. Mayer

2B · #11

Masataka Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH · #7

Mickey Gasper

M. Gasper

C · #30

Nate Eaton

N. Eaton

OF · #18

Payton Tolle

P. Tolle

SP · #70

Ranger Suarez

R. Suarez

SP · #55

Ryan Watson

R. Watson

RP · #56

Sonny Gray

S. Gray

SP · #54

Tommy Kahnle

T. Kahnle

RP · #46

Tyron Guerrero

T. Guerrero

RP · #41

Willson Contreras

W. Contreras

1B · #40

Wilyer Abreu

W. Abreu

RF · #52

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 63-40
61%Last 30 · 296-193
Receipts →

Model picks on BOS

Below the 30-pick gate (n=29)