HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sanchez (PHI): 6.0 IP · 11 K in a win over BAL — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over KC — Standout Index 93
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Placed C Jesus Rodriguez on the 10-day injured reserve list (Aug 1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Rasmussen (TB): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CHW — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 36 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST against CHI
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated LHP Cole Irvin for assignment (Aug 1)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Ionescu (NY): 27 PTS · 7 REB · 10 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Perez (ATL): 7.0 IP · 6 K in a win over WSH
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Sent RHP Andrew Wantz outright to Iowa (IL) (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Released G Eliska Hamzova (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · NFLFalcons: Signed G Matthew Bergeron to a 4-year, $96M contract extension (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · NFLBroncos: Reverted DB Blake Cotton to injured reserve after clearing waivers (Aug 1)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ GS, 8/2 - 8:30 PM EDT — GS -12.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sanchez (PHI): 6.0 IP · 11 K in a win over BAL — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over KC — Standout Index 93
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Placed C Jesus Rodriguez on the 10-day injured reserve list (Aug 1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Rasmussen (TB): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CHW — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 36 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST against CHI
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated LHP Cole Irvin for assignment (Aug 1)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Ionescu (NY): 27 PTS · 7 REB · 10 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Perez (ATL): 7.0 IP · 6 K in a win over WSH
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Sent RHP Andrew Wantz outright to Iowa (IL) (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Released G Eliska Hamzova (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · NFLFalcons: Signed G Matthew Bergeron to a 4-year, $96M contract extension (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · NFLBroncos: Reverted DB Blake Cotton to injured reserve after clearing waivers (Aug 1)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ GS, 8/2 - 8:30 PM EDT — GS -12.5
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Boston Red Sox
BOS#3 · American League

Boston Red Sox

59-51 (53.6%) · W4 · L10 7-3

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#6 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .558 · exp 61.4-48.6 vs act 59-51 · n=110 · luck -2.4W · thru 2026-08-01 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-28 → 2026-08-01 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 1 at ATH, 3-4, 2026-07-28. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 2 at ATH, 4-2, 2026-07-29. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 at ATH, 5-4, 2026-07-30. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 5 at LAD, 9-4, 2026-07-31. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 at LAD, 3-2, 2026-08-01. Covered the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Willson Contreras102 G.943
  2. 2Ceddanne Rafaela106 G.798
  3. 3Wilyer Abreu108 G.747
  4. 4Caleb Durbin103 G.705
  5. 5Jarren Duran103 G.595

Home runs

  1. 1Willson Contreras102 G23
  2. 2Wilyer Abreu108 G16
  3. 3Ceddanne Rafaela106 G14
  4. 4Jarren Duran103 G13
  5. 5Caleb Durbin103 G10

RBI

  1. 1Willson Contreras102 G67
  2. 2Ceddanne Rafaela106 G56
  3. 3Jarren Duran103 G56
  4. 4Wilyer Abreu108 G53
  5. 5Caleb Durbin103 G44

Batting average

  1. 1Ceddanne Rafaela106 G.288
  2. 2Willson Contreras102 G.288
  3. 3Wilyer Abreu108 G.246
  4. 4Caleb Durbin103 G.243
  5. 5Jarren Duran103 G.199

Stolen bases

  1. 1Ceddanne Rafaela106 G15
  2. 2Jarren Duran103 G15
  3. 3Caleb Durbin103 G12
  4. 4Wilyer Abreu108 G6
  5. 5Willson Contreras102 G3

ERA

  1. 1Sonny Gray113.7 IP2.93

WHIP

  1. 1Sonny Gray113.7 IP1.17

Strikeouts

  1. 1Sonny Gray113.7 IP98

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.244vs .244League avg

OBP

.315vs .318League avg

SLG

.394vs .402Slight gap

OPS

.709vs .720Slight gap

HR

107

R / G

4.2

K / G

8.2

Pitching

ERA

3.53vs 4.18Above avg

FIP (approx)

3.73vs 4.19Above avg

WHIP

1.23vs 1.31Above avg

K / 9

8.6vs 8.5Slight edge

BB / 9

2.8vs 3.4Above avg

BAA

.241

HR / 9

1.0

GP

110

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.50 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.001st2nd · 0.17 for / 0.33 against · margin -0.172nd3rd · 0.75 for / 0.58 against · margin +0.173rd4th · 0.33 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.004th5th · 0.33 for / 0.42 against · margin -0.085th6th · 0.58 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.176th7th · 0.75 for / 0.58 against · margin +0.177th8th · 0.58 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.42PEAK8th9th · 0.25 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.089thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

4.3 avg / 3.5 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

4.90

Blowout wins (4+)

9

Shutout games

1

Form last 30

25-5

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.9 runs

2457AVG 4.9012334455767891011RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-06-27 → 2026-08-01

Record

25-5

Win pct

83.3%

Avg margin

+1.8

Longest W

15

Longest L

2

Upset wins

5

Favorite losses

4

2026-06-27 · vs NYY · W 4-1 · model gave 52%NYY2026-06-28 · vs NYY · W 5-4 · model gave 52%NYY2026-06-29 · vs WSH · W 6-3 · model gave 50%WSH2026-06-30 · vs WSH · L 1-8 · model gave 50%WSH2026-07-01 · vs WSH · L 2-10 · model gave 52%WSH2026-07-03 · @ LAA · W 5-2 · model gave 58%LAA2026-07-04 · @ LAA · W 8-1 · model gave 59%LAA2026-07-05 · @ LAA · W 7-5 · model gave 60%LAA2026-07-07 · @ CHW · W 8-1 · model gave 47%CHW2026-07-08 · @ CHW · W 5-0 · model gave 49%CHW2026-07-09 · @ CHW · W 2-1 · model gave 49%CHW2026-07-10 · @ NYM · W 6-2 · model gave 59%NYM2026-07-11 · @ NYM · W 4-0 · model gave 59%NYM2026-07-12 · @ NYM · W 3-2 · model gave 59%NYM2026-07-17 · vs TB · W 10-0 · model gave 52%TB2026-07-17 · vs TB · W 5-3 · model gave 52%TB2026-07-18 · vs TB · W 7-6 · model gave 51%TB2026-07-19 · vs TB · W 6-1 · model gave 50%TB2026-07-20 · vs BAL · W 6-5 · model gave 67%BAL2026-07-22 · vs BAL · W 6-3 · model gave 67%BAL2026-07-22 · vs BAL · L 1-5 · model gave 67%BAL2026-07-24 · vs TOR · W 6-4 · model gave 72%TOR2026-07-25 · vs TOR · L 0-6 · model gave 73%TOR2026-07-26 · vs TOR · W 6-1 · model gave 71%TOR2026-07-27 · @ ATH · W 4-2 · model gave 66%ATH2026-07-28 · @ ATH · L 3-4 · model gave 66%ATH2026-07-29 · @ ATH · W 4-2 · model gave 68%ATH2026-07-30 · @ ATH · W 5-4 · model gave 69%ATH2026-07-31 · @ LAD · W 9-4 · model gave 47%LAD2026-08-01 · @ LAD · W 3-2 · model gave 47%LAD

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

164 games · 2025-08-02 → 2026-08-01

Peak 1573 · Now 1573 · Trough 1435

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves
  1. Jun 10

    Recalled LHP Jake Bennett from Worcester (IL). Optioned LHP Alec Gamboa to Worcester.

  2. Jun 9

    Reinstated RHP Garrett Whitlock from the 15-day IL. Optioned 2B Anthony Seigler to Worcester (IL).

  3. Jun 8

    Optioned LHP Joe La Sorsa to Worcester (IL). Recalled OF Nate Eaton from Worcester.

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Andruw Monasterio

A. Monasterio

SS · #32

Anthony Seigler

A. Seigler

2B · #48

Aroldis Chapman

A. Chapman

RP · #44

Brayan Bello

B. Bello

SP · #66

Caleb Durbin

C. Durbin

3B · #5

Carlos Narvaez

C. Narvaez

C · #75

Ceddanne Rafaela

C. Rafaela

CF · #3

Connor Wong

C. Wong

C · #12

Garrett Whitlock

G. Whitlock

RP · #22

Greg Weissert

G. Weissert

RP · #57

Jahmai Jones

J. Jones

DH · #37

Jake Bennett

J. Bennett

SP · #64

Jarren Duran

J. Duran

LF · #16

Jovani Moran

J. Moran

RP · #47

Justin Slaten

J. Slaten

RP · #63

Masataka Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH · #7

Nick Sogard

N. Sogard

3B · #20

Patrick Sandoval

P. Sandoval

SP · #43

Payton Tolle

P. Tolle

SP · #70

Ranger Suarez

R. Suarez

SP · #55

Romy Gonzalez

R. Gonzalez

DH · #23

Ryan Watson

R. Watson

RP · #56

Sonny Gray

S. Gray

SP · #54

Tyron Guerrero

T. Guerrero

RP · #41

Willson Contreras

W. Contreras

1B · #40

Wilyer Abreu

W. Abreu

RF · #52

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-38
60%Last 30 · 249-169
Receipts →

Model picks on BOS

14-16 graded · 46.7% (95% CI 30.2-63.9) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26

All MLB · 698-590 graded

Tonight's graded board →