Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+3ARI

ARI

58-52

CLE

56-55

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

36,639 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CLE no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
58.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.1pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

+230DraftKings

edge +12.1pp · implied 28.5%

CLE

no live price

Book	ARI	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+230★	-319	+12.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 119 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.1± 2.2high
Parker MessickCLE
5.3± 3.0high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.8± 2.1high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low
Nolan ArenadoARI
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Mitch BrattARI
2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

CLE

.706

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.314

OBP

.318

.311

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

4.20

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.75

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 4 · CLE 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	4
CLE	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Arizona DiamondbacksCleveland Guardians

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.247	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. PerdomoSS	.231	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
G. MorenoC	.308	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. Marte2B	.254	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
M. KeplerLF	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.198	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. TawaLF	.214	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.284	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.274	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.187	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	6	3	0	2	4

Player

.247

.231

.308

.254

.238

.242

.198

.214

.284

.274

.187

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BrattSP	5.0	3	1	1	4	2	82
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
K. GinkelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
B. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	9.0	3	1	1	5	5	127

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinezLF	.221	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.236	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. DeLauterRF	.277	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.176	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
B. RocchioSS	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.183	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. Bazzana2B	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. HedgesC	.276	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. KwanLF	.254	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.210	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. HalpinCF	.196	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	1	3	1	0	5	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	7.1	3	2	2	1	3	100
E. SabrowskiRP	0.0	2	2	1	1	0	10
M. FestaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	6
W. DionRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	6	4	3	2	4	127

Team

ARI

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CLE vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.