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TB#1 · American League
Tampa Bay Rays
67-46 (59.3%) · W2 · L10 7-3
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#9 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .535 · exp 60.4-52.6 vs act 67-46 · n=113 · luck +6.6W · thru 2026-08-04 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-07-31 → 2026-08-04 · Full ATS profile →
Lost by 5 vs CHW, 1-6, 2026-07-31. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Won by 1 vs CHW, 1-0, 2026-08-01. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Lost by 8 vs CHW, 1-9, 2026-08-02. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Won by 4 at COL, 13-9, 2026-08-03. Covered the spread (closing line).
Won by 2 at COL, 9-7, 2026-08-04. Covered the spread (closing line).
Stat leaders
Who carries them
OPS
- 1Junior Caminero113 G.925
- 2Yandy Díaz109 G.831
- 3Jonathan Aranda110 G.809
- 4Liam Hicks102 G.808
- 5Chandler Simpson106 G.687
Home runs
- 1Junior Caminero113 G32
- 2Yandy Díaz109 G15
- 3Liam Hicks102 G15
- 4Jonathan Aranda110 G14
- 5Cedric Mullins98 G13
RBI
- 1Jonathan Aranda110 G70
- 2Junior Caminero113 G70
- 3Liam Hicks102 G66
- 4Yandy Díaz109 G64
- 5Cedric Mullins98 G35
Batting average
- 1Yandy Díaz109 G.300
- 2Chandler Simpson106 G.299
- 3Jonathan Aranda110 G.285
- 4Liam Hicks102 G.284
- 5Junior Caminero113 G.284
Stolen bases
- 1Chandler Simpson106 G29
- 2Cedric Mullins98 G17
- 3Yandy Díaz109 G3
- 4Liam Hicks102 G3
- 5Junior Caminero113 G2
ERA
- 1Nick Martinez123.3 IP2.77
- 2Drew Rasmussen117.3 IP2.91
- 3Freddy Peralta117.3 IP5.37
WHIP
- 1Drew Rasmussen117.3 IP0.93
- 2Nick Martinez123.3 IP1.10
- 3Freddy Peralta117.3 IP1.52
Strikeouts
- 1Drew Rasmussen117.3 IP122
- 2Freddy Peralta117.3 IP116
- 3Nick Martinez123.3 IP69
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
Hitting + pitching vs league
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
.259vs .244Above avg
OBP
.330vs .318Slight edge
SLG
.403vs .401League avg
OPS
.733vs .720Slight edge
HR
115
R / G
4.5
K / G
7.2
Pitching
ERA
3.77vs 4.18Above avg
FIP (approx)
4.09vs 4.19Slight edge
WHIP
1.15vs 1.30Above avg
K / 9
8.2vs 8.5Slight gap
BB / 9
2.6vs 3.4Above avg
BAA
.230
HR / 9
1.3
GP
113
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
When they score
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
ForAgainst
3.8 avg / 3.6 allowed
Plate signature
The strike zone
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
4.20
Blowout wins (4+)
6
Shutout games
2
Form last 30
17-13
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
How they score
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 4.2 runs
Form heatmap
The margin trail
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-07-02 → 2026-08-04
Record
17-13
Win pct
56.7%
Avg margin
+0.1
Longest W
3
Longest L
5
Favorite losses
9
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
The Elo timeline
162 games · 2025-08-05 → 2026-08-04
Peak 1618 · Now 1585 · Trough 1471
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 12
Sent RF Jonny DeLuca on a rehab assignment to Durham (IL).
- Jun 10
Acquired cash considerations from Houston Astros for 2B Raynel Delgado.
- Jun 8
Transferred RHP Jonathan Heasley to the 60-day IL. Optioned 3B Oliver Dunn to Durham (IL). Selected the contract of RF Austin Slater from Durham.
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26
Hitters & fielders
B. Williamson
2B · #15
B. Baker
RP · #47
C. Booser
RP · #62
C. Legumina
RP · #67
C. Mullins
CF · #31
C. Simpson
LF · #14
C. Roycroft
RP · #56
D. Rasmussen
SP · #57
F. Peralta
SP · #51
G. Cleavinger
RP · #60
G. Jax
SP · #22
I. Seymour
SP · #61
J. Aranda
1B · #8
J. DeLuca
RF · #21
J. Caminero
3B · #13
K. Kelly
RP · #49
L. Hicks
C · #34
N. Fortes
C · #40
N. Martinez
SP · #28
R. Palacios
2B · #1
R. Vilade
RF · #26
S. Matz
SP · #32
T. Walls
SS · #6
T. Wells
RP · #68
V. Mesa Jr.
RF · #25
Y. Diaz
DH · #2