Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at CHC?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+4CHC

LAD

69-45

CHC

65-49

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

40,584 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 0.0 · +9.0

CHC no-vig %

34.6%

open 36.4% · -1.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
55.5%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.2%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.70

CLV pp

Open price

+163

Close price

+168

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

35.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at CHC?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.5pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

CHC

★ best

+174DraftKings

edge +20.5pp · implied 35.9%

Book	LAD	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	-186	+174★	+20.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.3high
Alex BregmanCHC
2.1± 2.7high
Nico HoernerCHC
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Tyrone TaylorCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.0high
Aaron CivaleCHC
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

CHC

.769

OPS

◀

.720

.754

.339

OBP

.318

.339

5.07

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.13

3.71

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.06

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.25

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

LAD 1 · CHC 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
CHC	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Los Angeles DodgersChicago Cubs

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.293	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. PagesCF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.310	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Muncy3B	.253	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. BettsSS	.223	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.243	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Edman2B	.293	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RortvedtC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CallLF	.246	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	4	1	1	2	4

Player

.293

.268

.310

.253

.223

.243

.256

.293

.000

.246

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	6.0	4	2	2	2	6	85
A. VesiaRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	12
E. PhillipsRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	8
E. DiazRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	1	23
J. DreyerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
Team	8.0	9	5	5	3	8	131

Player

6.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.284	4	1	2	1	0	0	2
S. SuzukiRF	.274	2	0	1	1	0	2	0
A. Bregman3B	.246	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.258	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
T. TaylorLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.219	4	2	3	1	1	0	1
P. Ramirez2B	.295	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AmayaC	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. HappLF	.215	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		33	5	9	5	2	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AssadSP	5.2	4	1	1	2	3	88
R. RolisonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
T. FergusonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. WebbRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	4	1	1	2	4	125

Team

LAD

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.