Every metric,
in plain English.

How much a play improves the team's expected score.

A 6-yard gain on 3rd and 5 produces far more EPA than a 6-yard gain on 1st and 10. EPA converts every play into a common currency: scoreboard impact. Positive EPA means the offense gained value; negative means it lost value.

Per-touch efficiency. The gold standard for skill-position value.

Total EPA divided by plays. Filters out volume, shows you how valuable a player is when they're involved. A player with 0.25 EPA/play on 200 touches is more impactful per touch than one with 0.15 EPA/play on 300 touches — even if totals are similar.

Share of plays that gain positive EPA.

A play is 'successful' if it meets down-and-distance expectations: 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th. High success rate = consistent. Low success rate with high EPA/play = boom-or-bust profile.

Team or player efficiency vs. league average on every play.

Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Grades every play against the league-average outcome for that situation (down, distance, field position), then adjusts for opponent strength. Positive = above average, negative = below. Developed by Football Outsiders.

Percentage of team's passing targets a receiver gets.

Receiver targets ÷ team total targets. 25%+ is elite-tier usage. Target share is sticky week-to-week and a better future-projection input than raw receptions.

Single metric combining target share + air yards share.

1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air yards share. Captures both how often a receiver gets the ball thrown their way AND how far downfield those targets travel. 0.70+ is WR1 territory.

Percentage of offensive snaps a player is on the field for.

The floor of opportunity. A skill player needs 65%+ snap share to be reliable for fantasy. Monitor for committee backfields and injury returns — snaps often lead stats by a week.

Share of team pass plays the player runs a route on.

More granular than snap share — isolates receiver-specific usage by excluding run plays. RBs with 60%+ route participation are pass-catching threats; 80%+ WR route participation is elite.

How much better a QB completes passes than the average passer would.

Each pass attempt has an expected completion probability based on depth, throw location, and pressure. CPOE subtracts expected from actual. +5% CPOE = elite accuracy; -3% = below average.

Average air yards of a QB's throws (or a receiver's targets).

Short pass-game QBs run 6–7 yard ADOT; deep-ball QBs push 9–10. For receivers, high ADOT correlates with boom-or-bust weekly variance.

Share of dropbacks where the QB is pressured.

Offensive-line quality proxy. QBs lose ~0.3 EPA/play under pressure. If pressure rate is trending up, project passing stats down regardless of matchup.

Yards gained after the ball is caught.

Total receiving yards minus air yards at the catch point. Splits receivers into route runners (low YAC, high ADOT) vs. YAC monsters (slot receivers, RBs).

Actual YAC minus the average YAC for that catch location + defender proximity.

Isolates receiver skill from scheme. A receiver with +1.5 YACOE is breaking tackles and winning after the catch at a higher rate than average.

Yards between receiver and nearest defender at the moment of the pass arrival.

Tracked by Next Gen Stats. 3.0+ yards of separation on average = open more often than not; 2.0– is contested-catch profile.

Rushing yards earned beyond what the average back would on the same carry.

Each carry has an expected yardage based on box count, defenders in the gap, and the blocking scheme. RYOE isolates the running back from the offensive line. Positive = the back creates yards; negative = the line creates yards.

Percentage of carries with 8+ defenders in the box.

Tough matchup proxy. Stacked boxes crush rushing EPA. RBs with 30%+ stacked box rate have an outsized positive signal when they still produce — they're earning every yard.

Expected points a team will score based on the Vegas spread + total.

(Total + Spread) / 2. A team in a 48-point game favored by 3 has a 25.5 implied total. Shapes game script: high implied totals favor pass-catchers; low totals favor defenses.

Expected flow of the game — pass-heavy, run-heavy, or neutral.

Favored teams with big leads run more (closing out games); underdogs down 10+ pass more. Projected game script shifts RB carries vs. WR targets materially.

How fast a team runs plays when scoring is competitive.

Seconds per play in neutral game state. High-pace teams (25s/play) create more total plays and more total fantasy points per game for everyone involved.