Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 1, 2026

FINAL+4ARI

ARI

59-52

128

CLE

56-56

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

30,392 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

59.4%

open 58.4% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
57.4%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.0pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

+377DraftKings

edge +22.0pp · implied 19.7%

CLE

no live price

Book	ARI	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+377★	-587	+22.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.1± 2.2high
Parker MessickCLE
5.3± 3.0high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.8± 2.1high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Mitch BrattARI
2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

CLE

.708

OPS

◀

.719

.681

.315

OBP

.318

.312

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

4.17

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.74

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 12 · CLE 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	2	0	7	1	2	12
CLE	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	1	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.249	5	2	2	3	1	1	1
G. PerdomoSS	.238	6	1	4	3	1	0	0
G. MorenoC	.302	6	0	0	1	0	0	1
K. Marte2B	.253	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. Arenado3B	.244	4	2	2	1	1	1	0
T. TawaLF	.207	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.276	5	1	2	1	0	0	2
J. McCannC	.310	4	2	3	2	0	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.291	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.187	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		42	12	16	11	3	3	8

Player

.249

.238

.302

.253

.244

.207

.276

.310

.291

.187

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. DrakeSP	4.0	5	2	2	1	6	94
G. CarrilloRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	31
J. MorilloRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
P. SewaldRP	0.0	5	5	5	0	0	17
K. GinkelRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	25
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	18
Team	9.0	14	8	8	2	10	201

Player

4.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

201

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.259	5	0	3	2	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.233	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. DeLauterRF	.276	5	2	1	1	1	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.179	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.225	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
D. FryRF	.182	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Bazzana2B	.243	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. HedgesC	.277	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. RocchioSS	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Manzardo1B	.214	3	2	2	0	0	0	1
P. HalpinCF	.210	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.220	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		40	8	14	8	2	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MessickSP	4.1	6	2	1	1	6	91
C. HoldermanRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	26
H. GaddisRP	0.2	2	4	4	1	0	20
F. AlemanRP	0.1	2	3	3	0	0	16
W. DionRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	8
T. HerrinRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	31
Team	9.0	16	12	11	3	8	192

Team

ARI

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.