Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at BAL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 25, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

ATL

61-43

BAL

51-54

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

37,883 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
43.6%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.2%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.8%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.55

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at BAL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.8pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

-113DraftKings

edge +10.8pp · implied 49.8%

BAL

no live price

Book	ATL	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-113★	-115	+10.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.0high
Brandon YoungBAL
5.0± 1.9medium

Hits

Jackson HollidayBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.5± 2.4high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.1± 3.5low
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Matt OlsonATL
0.8± 1.0high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

BAL

.733

OPS

◀

.720

.711

.315

OBP

.318

▶

.320

4.90

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.53

3.67

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

ATL 2 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2
BAL	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Atlanta BravesBaltimore Orioles

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.264	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. Olson1B	.267	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Harris IICF	.299	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. DubonLF	.265	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.259	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Riley3B	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. YastrzemskiLF	.228	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. JarvisSS	.271	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.220	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. HicklenRF	.368	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	2	6	2	1	2	9

Player

.273

.264

.267

.299

.265

.259

.217

.228

.271

.220

.368

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	5.0	4	2	1	4	8	98
V. MederosRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	30
D. FuentesRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	3	32
Team	8.2	7	3	2	4	14	160

Player

B. ElderSP

5.0

V. MederosRP

2.0

D. FuentesRP

1.2

Team

8.2

160

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BeaversRF	.255	4	0	2	1	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.247	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
G. HendersonSS	.223	4	1	1	1	1	0	3
T. WardLF	.251	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
C. Encarnacion-Strand3B	.375	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
L. TaverasCF	.232	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. O'NeillRF	.209	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Holliday2B	.229	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
C. TrompC	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. CowserCF	.205	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	1	4	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. YoungSP	6.1	4	1	1	2	6	94
G. WolframRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	10
R. GarciaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	18
Y. CanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	6	2	2	2	9	131

Team

ATL

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BAL vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.