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PIT#10 · National League

Pittsburgh Pirates

36-37 (49.3%) · L2 · L10 2-8

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#12 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .506 · exp 37-36 vs act 36-37 · n=73 · luck -1.0W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-11 → 2026-06-15 · Full ATS profile →

Model picks on PIT

17-15 graded · 53.1% (95% CI 36.4-69.1) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-04-03

All MLB · 594-464 graded

Tonight's graded board →

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

1Spencer Horwitz67 G.835
2Bryan Reynolds73 G.834
3Brandon Lowe67 G.829
4Oneil Cruz64 G.822
5Ryan O'Hearn58 G.785

Home runs

1Brandon Lowe67 G17
2Oneil Cruz64 G14
3Ryan O'Hearn58 G10
4Spencer Horwitz67 G9
5Bryan Reynolds73 G8

RBI

1Brandon Lowe67 G46
2Oneil Cruz64 G44
3Bryan Reynolds73 G42
4Ryan O'Hearn58 G35
5Nick Gonzales67 G31

Batting average

1Nick Gonzales67 G.296
2Spencer Horwitz67 G.281
3Ryan O'Hearn58 G.275
4Bryan Reynolds73 G.270
5Oneil Cruz64 G.264

Stolen bases

1Oneil Cruz64 G21
2Bryan Reynolds73 G5
3Nick Gonzales67 G4
4Spencer Horwitz67 G1
5Ryan O'Hearn58 G1

ERA

1Paul Skenes82.0 IP2.85
2Braxton Ashcraft84.7 IP3.30
3Mitch Keller77.0 IP5.14

WHIP

1Paul Skenes82.0 IP0.93
2Braxton Ashcraft84.7 IP1.10
3Mitch Keller77.0 IP1.31

Strikeouts

1Paul Skenes82.0 IP99
2Braxton Ashcraft84.7 IP90
3Mitch Keller77.0 IP58

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.252vs .243Slight edge

OBP

.334vs .319Slight edge

SLG

.402vs .398League avg

OPS

.736vs .717Slight edge

R / G

4.9

K / G

9.3

Pitching

ERA

4.26vs 4.18Slight gap

FIP (approx)

3.87vs 4.18Above avg

WHIP

1.31vs 1.31League avg

K / 9

9.1vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

3.7vs 3.5Below avg

BAA

.237

HR / 9

0.9

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

ForAgainst

4.2 avg / 6.7 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Avg runs / game

4.93

Blowout wins (4+)

Shutout games

Form last 30

13-17

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.9 runs

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

162 games · 2025-06-17 → 2026-06-15

Peak 1509 · Now 1468 · Trough 1450

Next 5 games

The road ahead

@ATHpwr 54

@COLpwr —

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

5 moves

Jun 12
Recalled RHP Antwone Kelly from Indianapolis (IL). Optioned RHP Brandan Bidois to Indianapolis. Sent C Joey Bart on a rehab assignment to Indianapolis.
Jun 11
Optioned 3B Davis Wendzel to Indianapolis (IL). Recalled OF Esmerlyn Valdez from Indianapolis.
Jun 10
Agreed to terms with OF Jean Rodriguez on a minor league contract. Sent C Joey Bart on a rehab assignment to Bradenton (FSL). Placed C Henry Davis on the paternity list. Recalled C Rafael Flores Jr. RF Billy Cook from Indianapolis (IL). Placed CF Onell Cruz on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 8.
Jun 9
Agreed to terms with RHP Chun Hsi Lin on a minor league contract.
Jun 7
Selected the contract of 3B Davis Wendzel from Indianapolis (IL). Optioned RF Jhostynxon Garcia to Indianapolis.

Source · ESPN