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PIT#10 · National League

Pittsburgh Pirates

38-37 (50.7%) · W2 · L10 4-6

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#6 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .517 · exp 38.8-36.2 vs act 38-37 · n=75 · luck -0.8W · thru 2026-06-17 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-13 → 2026-06-17 · Full ATS profile →

Model picks on PIT

17-15 graded · 53.1% (95% CI 36.4-69.1) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-04-03

All MLB · 605-483 graded

Tonight's graded board →

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

1Bryan Reynolds75 G.872
2Spencer Horwitz69 G.845
3Brandon Lowe69 G.837
4Ryan O'Hearn60 G.826
5Oneil Cruz64 G.822

Home runs

1Brandon Lowe69 G18
2Oneil Cruz64 G14
3Ryan O'Hearn60 G11
4Bryan Reynolds75 G10
5Spencer Horwitz69 G9

RBI

1Brandon Lowe69 G49
2Bryan Reynolds75 G47
3Oneil Cruz64 G44
4Ryan O'Hearn60 G41
5Nick Gonzales69 G32

Batting average

1Nick Gonzales69 G.293
2Ryan O'Hearn60 G.290
3Bryan Reynolds75 G.283
4Spencer Horwitz69 G.281
5Oneil Cruz64 G.264

Stolen bases

1Oneil Cruz64 G21
2Bryan Reynolds75 G5
3Nick Gonzales69 G4
4Ryan O'Hearn60 G1
5Spencer Horwitz69 G1

ERA

1Paul Skenes82.0 IP2.85
2Braxton Ashcraft90.7 IP3.18
3Mitch Keller82.3 IP5.25

WHIP

1Paul Skenes82.0 IP0.93
2Braxton Ashcraft90.7 IP1.10
3Mitch Keller82.3 IP1.34

Strikeouts

1Paul Skenes82.0 IP99
2Braxton Ashcraft90.7 IP97
3Mitch Keller82.3 IP65

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.255vs .243Slight edge

OBP

.337vs .319Above avg

SLG

.408vs .398Slight edge

OPS

.745vs .718Slight edge

R / G

5.1

K / G

9.3

Pitching

ERA

4.22vs 4.18League avg

FIP (approx)

3.88vs 4.19Above avg

WHIP

1.31vs 1.31League avg

K / 9

9.2vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

3.7vs 3.5Below avg

BAA

.236

HR / 9

1.0

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

ForAgainst

4.5 avg / 6.4 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Avg runs / game

5.00

Blowout wins (4+)

Shutout games

Form last 30

14-16

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 5.0 runs

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

163 games · 2025-06-19 → 2026-06-17

Peak 1509 · Now 1478 · Trough 1450

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

5 moves

Jun 12
Recalled RHP Antwone Kelly from Indianapolis (IL). Optioned RHP Brandan Bidois to Indianapolis. Sent C Joey Bart on a rehab assignment to Indianapolis.
Jun 11
Optioned 3B Davis Wendzel to Indianapolis (IL). Recalled OF Esmerlyn Valdez from Indianapolis.
Jun 10
Agreed to terms with OF Jean Rodriguez on a minor league contract. Sent C Joey Bart on a rehab assignment to Bradenton (FSL). Placed C Henry Davis on the paternity list. Recalled C Rafael Flores Jr. RF Billy Cook from Indianapolis (IL). Placed CF Onell Cruz on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 8.
Jun 9
Agreed to terms with RHP Chun Hsi Lin on a minor league contract.
Jun 7
Selected the contract of 3B Davis Wendzel from Indianapolis (IL). Optioned RF Jhostynxon Garcia to Indianapolis.

Source · ESPN