Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts

PIT#9 · National League

Pittsburgh Pirates

56-56 (50.0%) · W1 · L10 3-7

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#10 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .531 · exp 59.5-52.5 vs act 56-56 · n=112 · luck -3.5W · thru 2026-08-01 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-28 → 2026-08-01 · Full ATS profile →

Model picks on PIT

17-16 graded · 51.5% (95% CI 35.2-67.5) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-04-03

All MLB · 698-590 graded

Tonight's graded board →

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

1Bryan Reynolds112 G.832
2Brandon Lowe103 G.815
3Ryan O'Hearn96 G.788
4Nick Gonzales106 G.778

Home runs

1Brandon Lowe103 G23
2Ryan O'Hearn96 G17
3Bryan Reynolds112 G15
4Nick Gonzales106 G6

RBI

1Brandon Lowe103 G71
2Ryan O'Hearn96 G69
3Bryan Reynolds112 G62
4Nick Gonzales106 G50

Batting average

1Nick Gonzales106 G.315
2Ryan O'Hearn96 G.270
3Bryan Reynolds112 G.268
4Brandon Lowe103 G.257

Stolen bases

1Bryan Reynolds112 G7
2Nick Gonzales106 G5
3Brandon Lowe103 G2
4Ryan O'Hearn96 G1

ERA

1Paul Skenes124.7 IP3.90
2Braxton Ashcraft127.3 IP3.96
3Mitch Keller113.7 IP4.83

WHIP

1Paul Skenes124.7 IP1.11
2Braxton Ashcraft127.3 IP1.16
3Mitch Keller113.7 IP1.31

Strikeouts

1Paul Skenes124.7 IP156
2Braxton Ashcraft127.3 IP140
3Mitch Keller113.7 IP87

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.259vs .244Above avg

OBP

.336vs .318Above avg

SLG

.418vs .402Slight edge

OPS

.754vs .720Slight edge

139

R / G

5.1

K / G

9.4

Pitching

ERA

4.26vs 4.18Slight gap

FIP (approx)

3.90vs 4.19Above avg

WHIP

1.32vs 1.31League avg

K / 9

9.3vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

3.6vs 3.4Below avg

BAA

.241

HR / 9

1.0

112

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

ForAgainst

3.2 avg / 4.6 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Avg runs / game

5.43

Blowout wins (4+)

Shutout games

Form last 30

15-15

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 5.4 runs

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

165 games · 2025-08-02 → 2026-08-01

Peak 1512 · Now 1497 · Trough 1456

Next 5 games

The road ahead

@CINpwr 55

@MILpwr 61

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

5 moves

Jun 12
Recalled RHP Antwone Kelly from Indianapolis (IL). Optioned RHP Brandan Bidois to Indianapolis. Sent C Joey Bart on a rehab assignment to Indianapolis.
Jun 11
Optioned 3B Davis Wendzel to Indianapolis (IL). Recalled OF Esmerlyn Valdez from Indianapolis.
Jun 10
Agreed to terms with OF Jean Rodriguez on a minor league contract. Sent C Joey Bart on a rehab assignment to Bradenton (FSL). Placed C Henry Davis on the paternity list. Recalled C Rafael Flores Jr. RF Billy Cook from Indianapolis (IL). Placed CF Onell Cruz on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 8.
Jun 9
Agreed to terms with RHP Chun Hsi Lin on a minor league contract.
Jun 7
Selected the contract of 3B Davis Wendzel from Indianapolis (IL). Optioned RF Jhostynxon Garcia to Indianapolis.

Source · ESPN