Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at MIL?

The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 22, 2026

FINAL+1MIL

NYM

43-60

MIL

64-38

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

38,319 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
64.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.7%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.6%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.78

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at MIL?: The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+63.8pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

MIL

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +63.8pp · implied 0.0%

Book	NYM	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+1680	—★	+63.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.0± 2.8low

Hits

Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.1high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 0.7high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Brice TurangMIL
2.0± 1.9high
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high

RBIs

Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high
Luis LaraMIL
0.7± 1.5medium
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.4± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

MIL

.683

OPS

.720

▶

.734

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.337

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.98

4.10

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.48

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.16

9.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

NYM 3 · MIL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	3
MIL	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.274	5	0	2	0	0	0	2
F. LindorSS	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. BengeRF	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. PolancoDH	.165	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Young1B	.247	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Semien2B	.209	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
B. Baty3B	.223	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.257	4	0	1	1	0	0	3
T. TaylorLF	.228	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. Robert Jr.CF	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TorrensC	.228	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	8	3	2	2	15

Player

.274

.233

.256

.263

.165

.247

.209

.223

.257

.228

.211

.228

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ScottSP	3.2	4	3	3	3	6	89
C. PerezRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	25
H. BrazobanRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	16
A.J. MinterRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
D. DuarteRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	24
Team	8.0	8	4	4	5	9	173

Player

3.2

0.2

1.1

1.0

1.1

Team

8.0

173

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.243	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
J. ChourioLF	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Turang2B	.259	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
W. ContrerasC	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. MitchellCF	.277	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
A. Vaughn1B	.307	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Bauers1B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PrattSS	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. OrtizSS	.239	3	2	3	2	0	1	0
L. LaraRF	.240	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	8	4	0	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HendersonSP	5.0	5	2	2	0	9	80
A. AshbyRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	4	32
A. UribeRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	20
T. MegillRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	14
Team	9.0	8	3	3	2	15	146

Team

NYM

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIL vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.