Park factor
96 total idx
Citi Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
ATL
ATL
62-44
PregameWed, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
NYM
NYM
45-62
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketCiti Field · Queens, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Chris Sale
SP · #51
11-6
W-L
2.19
ERA
1.05
WHIP
134
K
111.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDW(11-6)6.0 IP3 ER11 K
vsTEXW(10-6)7.0 IP0 ER6 K
@STL-3.0 IP0 ER5 K
Home starter
Christian Scott
SP · #45
3-2
W-L
3.13
ERA
1.26
WHIP
78
K
63.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@MILL(3-2)3.2 IP3 ER6 K
@PHIW(3-1)5.2 IP0 ER7 K
vsKC-5.0 IP0 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob59% / 41%
LeanAway · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesNYM lead series 5-3
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYM vs ATL.
NYM is 5-5 recently; ATL is 6-4.
40.6%
model · NYM win prob
Recent form
- NYM5–5+1.4
- ATL6–4-1.0
Situational
- NYM2d rest
- ATL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYM has 0 straight road games; ATL has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.7strikeouts · ±2.4
Nolan McLean · 6.7 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.8.
- Freddy PeraltaNYM4.8strikeouts · ±1.7
Freddy Peralta · 4.8 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 5.1.
- Bryce ElderATL4.5strikeouts · ±2.0
Bryce Elder · 4.5 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 4.9.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
NYM is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-03NYM @ ATL3–5
- 2026-07-04NYM @ ATL3–14
- 2026-07-05NYM @ ATL10–9
- 2026-07-06NYM @ ATL7–6
- 2026-07-27ATL @ NYM3–14
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
39.8%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
44.8%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.7%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.4%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.45 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYM vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.0± 2.7medium
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.7± 2.4high
- Christian ScottNYM5.7± 1.9low
Hits
- Drake BaldwinATL1.3± 1.4high
- Michael Harris IIATL1.2± 0.7high
- Bo BichetteNYM1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- Drake BaldwinATL2.4± 3.2high
- Michael Harris IIATL2.3± 1.7high
- Francisco LindorNYM2.2± 3.8high
RBIs
- Francisco LindorNYM0.8± 2.0high
- Ozzie AlbiesATL0.7± 0.9high
- Tyrone TaylorNYM0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Kodai SengaNYM3.5± 3.3low
- Bryce ElderATL3.2± 2.3high
- Freddy PeraltaNYM3.2± 3.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATL
league avg
NYM
.731
OPS
◀
.721
.694
.315
OBP
◀
.318
.307
4.93
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.17
3.74
Team ERA
◀
4.20
4.18
1.26
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.30
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.2
The One modelEdge
Wed, Jul 29ATL★
Braves
76-55
vs59.4%ATL
NYM
Mets
55-74
ATL 59.4%win prob40.6% NYM
ATL 1526 · NYM 1466Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
