Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 28, 2026

FINAL+1ARI

ARI

56-52

PIT

55-53

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

19,024 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

PIT no-vig %

51.5%

open 51.1% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
52.1%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.1%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.6%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+38.0pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

ARI

no live price

PIT

★ best

+511DraftKings

edge +38.0pp · implied 15.4%

Book	ARI	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	-910	+511★	+38.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high
Jared JonesPIT
5.2± 2.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Brandon LowePIT
1.4± 1.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Brandon LowePIT
2.4± 1.9high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

PIT

.706

OPS

.720

▶

.748

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.334

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.08

4.20

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.30

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.33

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 8 · PIT 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R
ARI	1	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	8
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 12th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.249	5	0	1	0	0	1	1
G. PerdomoSS	.231	7	1	1	0	0	0	3
G. MorenoC	.307	6	1	1	2	0	0	0
K. Marte2B	.253	6	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. KeplerLF	.236	4	1	1	0	0	2	2
N. Arenado3B	.247	5	0	3	1	0	0	2
T. TawaLF	.224	4	1	0	1	0	0	1
J. McCannC	.289	6	1	4	1	0	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.276	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
T. Locklear1B	.261	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.192	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.273	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		50	8	15	6	0	3	11

Player

.249

.231

.307

.253

.236

.247

.224

.289

.276

.261

.192

.273

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. PfaadtRP	7.0	6	0	0	1	4	101
R. ThompsonRP	0.2	4	3	3	1	1	28
B. GarciaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	8
P. SewaldRP	0.1	3	3	3	0	0	13
J. MorilloRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	7
K. GinkelRP	1.0	0	1	0	0	0	13
G. CarrilloRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
Team	12.0	14	7	6	3	10	187

Player

B. PfaadtRP

7.0

101

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

1.0

2.0

Team

12.0

187

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.302	6	1	2	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.253	5	1	2	2	1	1	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.269	4	2	1	1	1	2	1
E. ValdezRF	.285	6	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. O'HearnRF	.277	6	1	2	1	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.315	6	1	2	0	0	0	1
E. RodriguezC	.259	6	1	1	1	0	0	3
M. OzunaDH	.205	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. GonzalezSS	.226	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. CookCF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TrioloSS	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		49	7	14	6	2	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChandlerSP	4.0	7	5	3	1	3	91
I. MattsonRP	1.2	3	1	1	1	3	39
B. EisertRP	2.1	3	0	0	0	2	41
R. MarinaccioRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
G. SotoRP	1.0	0	1	0	0	2	22
W. DotelRP	2.0	2	1	0	1	0	20
Team	12.0	15	8	4	3	11	224

Team

ARI

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.