Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+2ATL

MIA

58-56

ATL

68-45

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

26,374 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

58.3%

open 55.1% · +3.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.4%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
58.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.8%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.3%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.15

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-136

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.3pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

+251DraftKings

edge +13.3pp · implied 27.6%

ATL

no live price

Book	MIA	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+251★	-298	+13.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.4± 1.9high

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.5± 2.4high
Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Joe MackMIA
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.8± 1.0high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

ATL

.731

OPS

.720

.733

.325

OBP

◀

.318

.315

4.37

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.89

3.99

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.66

1.24

WHIP

1.30

1.24

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

MIA 2 · ATL 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
ATL	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	4

Final play

“Marsee caught stealing third, catcher to third.”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Stowers1B	.235	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
G. ConineRF	.264	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. LopezSS	.323	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.237	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. MarseeCF	.197	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.206	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. MackC	.242	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.265	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.287	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.226	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	8	2	0	3	7

Player

.235

.264

.323

.231

.237

.197

.206

.242

.265

.287

.226

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GustoSP	6.0	5	1	1	0	5	83
J. KingRP	1.0	1	2	1	0	0	16
V. VodnikRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	26
Team	8.0	7	4	3	1	6	125

Player

R. GustoSP

6.0

J. KingRP

1.0

V. VodnikRP

1.0

Team

8.0

125

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.240	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.269	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.287	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
O. Albies2B	.263	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.230	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.266	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.220	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
J. JarvisSS	.253	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. DubonLF	.259	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. ThomasCF	.230	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	7	3	2	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HolmesSP	6.0	5	0	0	1	5	72
D. DoddRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	21
Team	9.0	8	2	2	3	7	122

Team

MIA

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

ATL vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.