Recent form
6-4
WSH -1.1 vs CON -1.1 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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WNBAAnalytics2026
5 on the slateThe fastest-rising league, measured in full.
The Model · WNBA
Today’s sharpest read: WSH
The model rates WSH over CON well past the market’s price — its biggest disagreement with the books on the slate.
+32.7% EV+19.3pp edgeLOCKas of 4:09 AM EDT
What's EV?
EV = Expected Value. The percentage edge the model thinks the bet has over the posted sportsbook price.
+5% EV means the model expects $5 of profit per $100 risked — over enough samples. Higher EV = larger gap between the model's win probability and the market's implied probability at the line on offer. We surface only +EV picks.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketWNBA · model edges · tonight
Where the model disagrees with the price.
5 games priced · 3 of 3 shown
Pick: WSH+32.7%EV
WSHvsCON
Model68.9%
Market49.6%
Best price-108 · ATS+ML
Pick: LA+29.5%EV
LAvsNY
Model50.4%
Market37.2%
Best price+157 · ML+ATS
Pick: IND+26.4%EV
INDvsSEA
Model66.2%
Market50.0%
Best price-110 · ATS
Model accuracy · WNBA
How the WNBA model grades
Last 7
50.0%
6 games
Last 30
61.0%
59 games
Last 90
69.0%
203 games
All time
65.4%
514 games
By confidence tier · all-time
★ Locks
76.0%
179g
+16.0
Edges
70.4%
135g
+15.4
Leans
54.6%
108g
+2.6
Tossups
50.0%
92g
+0.0
Reliability curve · is the WNBA model calibrated?›
514 picks · 9 buckets
| Predicted | Actual win rate | Sample | 95% CI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 to 55% | 50.0% | 46 of 92 | 40–60% | calibrated |
| 55 to 60% | 54.2% | 58 of 107 | 45–63% | calibrated |
| 60 to 65% | 70.0% | 63 of 90 | 60–78% | calibrated |
| 65 to 70% | 68.4% | 54 of 79 | 57–78% | calibrated |
| 70 to 75% | 68.3% | 43 of 63 | 56–78% | calibrated |
| 75 to 80% | 85.0% | 34 of 40 | 71–93% | calibrated |
| 80 to 85% | 86.7% | 26 of 30 | 70–95% | calibrated |
| 85 to 90% | 100.0% | 12 of 12 | 76–100% | calibrated |
| 90% or higher | 0.0% | 0 of 1 | 0–79% | overconfident |
Beat the close · WNBA
+1424.5bps · median · robust read
Positive
97%95% CI 92–99%
Graded
124
Tonight · model projections
Player props to watch
Model projection vs season average — biggest moves first. Projections, not odds.
Kayla McBride
MIN @ SEA · High conf · 29g
22.2Pts
+4.20 vs season
Sabrina Ionescu
NY vs CHI · Med conf · 18g
17.4Pts
+3.20 vs season
Kelsey Mitchell
IND vs SPO · High conf · 31g
25.4Pts
+2.80 vs season
Tyasha Harris
IND vs CON · High conf · 23g
7.30Pts
+2.30 vs season
Explore WNBA
Live · today’s slate
Tonight’s games
Last 3 meetings
MIN leads series 1-0
May 22
TOR72@
MIN100
TOR72@MIN100Jul 31MIN@TORupcoming
MIN@TORupcomingJul 29TOR@MINtoday
TOR@MINtodayStandings · ladder view
Where every team stands
Bar lengths track win-pct vs the conference leader. Dashed line marks the playoff cut.
Playoff seeding · by record
Around the league
Injury report · 32 Out
Notable injuries
37 active leaguewide · capped 2 per team
Out7/28
S. Sabally
FConcussion
Out7/28
K. Plum
GLower Leg
Out7/28
B. Hall
GAnkle · Not Specified
Out7/28
D. Dantas
CKnee
Out7/27
T. Mair
GNot Injury Related
Out7/27
C. Parker-Tyus
FConcussion
Out7/27
K. Bell
FLeg
Out7/27
M. Johannes
GAnkle
Out7/27
N. Sabally
FRibs
Out7/27
B. Griner
CKnee
Standings · with trend
Where every team stands
Trend column compares each team's season seed to their recent-form power rank. Up arrow = playing better than their seed; down = slumping.
Schedule strength · next 7 days
The road ahead
Average opponent power score across each team's next 5 games. Higher = harder slate.
Hardest stretch ahead
Tempo
4 games · avg opp pwr 82.7
MINMINGSGS
83
Fire
3 games · avg opp pwr 72.2
LVINDLA
72
Dream
3 games · avg opp pwr 69.5
DALSEALV
70
Wings
3 games · avg opp pwr 68.9
ATLWSHCON
69Fever
3 games · avg opp pwr 65.0
SEAPORMIN
65Easiest stretch ahead
Sparks
2 games · avg opp pwr 40.1
NYPOR
40
Aces
4 games · avg opp pwr 50.9
PORNYCHIATL
51
Mercury
3 games · avg opp pwr 54.2
GSNYCHI
54Sun
3 games · avg opp pwr 59.7
WSHCHIDAL
60
Storm
3 games · avg opp pwr 63.6
INDATLNY
64Recent form · last 21 days
Hottest teams right now
Top 5 by win% across the recent window · oldest on the left, most recent on the right
Storylines
Lynx have won 4 in a row
Longest active win streak in the WNBA
2026 season leaders · min 15 GP
Who ran the W this year
PPG
Points per game
- 1
26.1A'ja Wilson
LV · C · 24 GP
- 2
23.3Kelsey Mitchell
IND · G · 27 GP
- 3
21.1Breanna Stewart
NY · F · 26 GP
- 4
21.0Caitlin Clark
IND · G · 23 GP
- 5
20.9Paige Bueckers
DAL · G · 25 GP
RPG
Rebounds per game
- 1
12.0Jessica Shepard
DAL · F · 27 GP
- 2
11.5Angel Reese
ATL · F · 25 GP
- 39.5
A'ja Wilson
LV · C · 24 GP
- 4
9.5Shakira Austin
WSH · C · 25 GP
- 5
9.3Aneesah Morrow
CON · F · 18 GP
APG
Assists per game
- 1
8.3Alyssa Thomas
PHX · F · 26 GP
- 27.9
Caitlin Clark
IND · G · 23 GP
- 3
7.7Jordin Canada
ATL · G · 26 GP
- 4
7.3Chelsea Gray
LV · G · 26 GP
- 5
6.8Jackie Young
LV · G · 26 GP
STK
Stocks (STL+BLK)
- 13.6
A'ja Wilson
LV · C · 24 GP
- 2
3.2Rhyne Howard
ATL · G · 25 GP
- 3
3.2Emily Engstler
POR · F · 27 GP
- 4
2.7Natasha Howard
MIN · F · 28 GP
- 52.6
Breanna Stewart
NY · F · 26 GP
Teams · 15
Every team, every city
Players · 317 of 317
