Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at COL?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 5, 2026

67-46

PregameWed, 3:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

COL

45-69

ATS/TB -1.5O/U/11.5ML/TB-158

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

115 total idx

Coors Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

TB -0.1 vs COL -0.3 margin

TB brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.5

open O/U 11.5

COL no-vig %

40.9%

open 41.7% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Nick Martinez

SP · #28

10-3

W-L

2.77

ERA

1.10

WHIP

123.1

Last 3 starts

vsCHWL(10-3)6.0 IP6 ER2 K

vsCLEW(10-2)6.0 IP0 ER5 K

@TORW(9-2)6.0 IP1 ER0 K

Home starter

Tomoyuki Sugano

SP · #11

11-4

W-L

4.47

ERA

1.26

WHIP

102.2

Last 3 starts

vsKCW(11-4)6.2 IP1 ER2 K

@MILW(10-4)5.1 IP2 ER5 K

vsCINW(9-4)6.1 IP3 ER3 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 11.5

Money-158 / +148

Model edge

Win prob80% / 20%

LeanAway · 30pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesTB leads series 2-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take TB on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-158Bet TB ML↗-158Bet TB ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 11.5Bet the total↗O/U 11.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

COL vs TB.

COL is 4-6 recently; TB is 7-3.

19.8%

model · COL win prob

Recent form

COL4–6-0.3
TB7–3-0.1

Situational

COL1d restB2B
TB1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. COL has 0 straight road games; TB has 2.

Model angle

+20.0ppon TB

TB's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+1.3pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Head to head+0.6pp

Players to watch

Drew RasmussenTB
5.8strikeouts · ±3.9
Drew Rasmussen · 5.8 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.6.
Griffin JaxTB
5.2strikeouts · ±2.3
Griffin Jax · 5.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 3.4.
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8strikeouts · ±2.8
Kyle Freeland · 4.8 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.4.

Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2

COL is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-03TB @ COL13–9
2026-08-04TB @ COL9–7

Line move

open +129→+134toward TB

The market has moved 0.9pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

18.8%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
30.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
28.8%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
30.8%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like TB.

TB's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+20.0

pp edge · TB

+2.04

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on TB

92.1%

±4.1pp band

5u large — +30.9pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+31.8pp

+11.8pp post-cal

Kelly

79.6%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.63

+30.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 20.0pp · TB over COL

▲
Model confidence90% conf
TB clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
TB has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
TB is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-0.5pp
▲
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp toward TB since open.
+0.4pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-158

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

60.3%

Market steamed in our direction

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at COL?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.5pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

-154DraftKings

edge +20.5pp · implied 59.8%

COL

no live price

Book	TB	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-154★	+145	+20.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Griffin JaxTB
5.2± 2.3high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.3± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Junior CamineroTB
2.2± 2.7high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Freddy PeraltaTB
3.7± 3.4high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

COL

.733

OPS

.720

▶

.747

.330

OBP

◀

.318

.324

4.48

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.86

3.77

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.52

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.52

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

The One model★ Lock

Wed, Aug 5

TB★

Rays

95-46

vs80.3%TB

COL

Rockies

51-83

TB 80.3%win prob19.7% COL

TB 1585 · COL 1421Box score→

Team pages

Tampa Bay RaysColorado Rockies

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take TB on the model side.

COL vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like TB.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

COL vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

Why we like TB.