Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 30, 2026

FINAL+1ATL

WSH

55-55

ATL

64-45

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

35,418 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ATL no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.2% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
61.3%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.7%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.09

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.4pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

ATL

★ best

+146DraftKings

edge +23.4pp · implied 38.2%

Book	WSH	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-192	+146★	+23.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Tyler MahleATL
4.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.9high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.8high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.2high
Abimelec OrtizWSH
2.0± 2.7low
CJ AbramsWSH
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 1.1high
Austin RileyATL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

ATL

.765

OPS

◀

.720

.733

.326

OBP

◀

.318

.315

5.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.89

4.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.66

1.40

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

WSH 4 · ATL 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	4
ATL	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.270	2	1	0	0	0	3	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.286	5	1	3	2	1	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. AbramsSS	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.248	4	2	2	2	2	0	0
K. RuizC	.263	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.249	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.237	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Nunez2B	.242	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Chaparro1B	.221	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. FordC	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. House3B	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	7	4	3	4	6

Player

.270

.286

.224

.289

.248

.263

.249

.237

.242

.221

.200

.233

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. IrvinSP	5.0	3	5	5	2	1	61
C. PalmquistRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	30
R. CornelioRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
Team	8.0	4	5	5	3	3	100

Player

J. IrvinSP

5.0

C. PalmquistRP

2.0

R. CornelioRP

1.0

Team

8.0

100

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.279	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.244	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
M. Olson1B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.290	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.261	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
M. DubonLF	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.267	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.226	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. JarvisSS	.243	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. WhiteRF	.233	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	5	4	5	2	3	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HolmesSP	4.2	5	3	3	2	4	69
D. YoungRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
V. MederosRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	17
D. LeeRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
Team	9.0	7	4	4	4	6	138

Team

WSH

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.