Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at ATH?

The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Detroit Tigers vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+12DET

DET

52-58

131

ATH

45-65

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,926 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.0 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

40.7%

open 40.0% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.7%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
41.9%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.1%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.1%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.68

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at ATH?: The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

DET

no live price

ATH

no live price

Book	DET	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	-218	+164	+0.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 1.6high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
1.5± 1.7low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low
Colt KeithDET
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
2.7± 3.5low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Dillon DinglerDET
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

ATH

.731

OPS

◀

.720

.319

OBP

.318

.320

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.35

3.56

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.42

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.50

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 13 · ATH 1 (by 12)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7	4	13
ATH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.285	3	2	1	2	1	2	1
G. Torres2B	.263	5	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. DinglerC	.269	6	1	2	4	1	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.277	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
H. Lee2B	.269	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.216	4	3	3	0	0	1	0
M. ClarkCF	.750	4	2	3	1	0	1	0
J. BaezSS	.304	5	2	3	3	0	0	0
B. MalgeriRF	.282	4	2	1	2	1	1	1
J. OutmanCF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. ValenciaC	.417	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.206	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	13	14	12	3	7	7

Player

.285

.263

.269

.277

.269

.216

.750

.304

.282

.167

.263

.417

.206

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. HoltonRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	1	24
T. MaddenRP	3.0	2	0	0	2	2	56
D. SommersRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
E. De JesusRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	21
Team	9.0	3	1	1	3	7	116

Player

2.0

3.0

2.0

2.0

Team

9.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.256	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. WilsonSS	.276	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. HeimC	.237	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
T. SoderstromLF	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. White3B	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. ButlerRF	.206	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. BolteCF	.248	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.246	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.262	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ServenC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Walton2B	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OrnelasSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	3	1	0	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SpringsSP	4.0	4	2	2	5	2	86
H. JuengerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
B. BassoRP	2.0	4	3	3	0	2	30
L. MoralesSP	2.0	6	8	7	1	1	47
Team	9.0	14	13	12	7	7	183

Team

DET

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.