Recent form
5-5
NYM +1.2 vs CLE -1.4 margin
NYM brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians
NYM
NYM
48-66
PregameWed, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CLE
CLE
57-57
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketProgressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Line movement
200 snapshots
CLE spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.0 · +0.5
CLE no-vig %
48.5%
open 47.6% · +0.9
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Christian Scott
SP · #45
3-3
W-L
2.99
ERA
1.24
WHIP
85
K
69.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATLL(3-3)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@MILL(3-2)3.2 IP3 ER6 K
@PHIW(3-1)5.2 IP0 ER7 K
Home starter
Tanner Bibee
SP · #28
4-11
W-L
3.81
ERA
1.15
WHIP
100
K
132.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsARIL(4-11)7.1 IP2 ER3 K
@TBL(4-10)6.0 IP3 ER5 K
vsMINW(4-9)6.0 IP2 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money-114 / -106
Model edge
Win prob37% / 64%
LeanHome · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesNYM lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take CLE on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
CLE vs NYM.
CLE is 3-7 recently; NYM is 5-5.
63.5%
model · CLE win prob
Recent form
- CLE3–7-1.4
- NYM5–5+1.2
Situational
- CLE1d restB2B
- NYM1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CLE has 0 straight road games; NYM has 1.
Model angle
+14.4ppon CLE
CLE's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▼Venue split-1.0pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.1strikeouts · ±3.0
Gavin Williams · 8.1 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 7.7.
- Nolan McLeanNYM7.0strikeouts · ±1.7
Nolan McLean · 7 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 6.7.
- Joey CantilloCLE6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Joey Cantillo · 6.1 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 5.4.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
CLE is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-04NYM @ CLE6–2
Line move
open +101→-103toward CLE
The market has moved 1pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.4%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
63.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.2%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.70 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
119
projections · 105 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.1± 3.0high
- Nolan McLeanNYM7.0± 1.7high
- Joey CantilloCLE6.1± 2.2high
Hits
- Steven KwanCLE1.3± 1.0high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE1.2± 1.2high
- Bo BichetteNYM1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Francisco LindorNYM2.0± 3.5high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE1.7± 1.6high
- Steven KwanCLE1.5± 1.1high
RBIs
- Francisco LindorNYM0.7± 1.9high
- Chase DeLauterCLE0.5± 1.0high
- Jo AdellCLE0.5± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Kodai SengaNYM2.8± 2.9low
- Gavin WilliamsCLE2.5± 2.1high
- Slade CecconiCLE2.4± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
CLE
.684
OPS
.720
.680
.303
OBP
.318
▶.311
4.06
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.93
4.09
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.75
1.29
WHIP
1.30
▶1.26
9.1
K / 9
8.5
▶9.4
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5NYM
Mets
58-78
vs63.5%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
77-63
NYM 36.5%win prob63.5% CLE
CLE 1536 · NYM 1464Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Blue JaysAstros8/5 - 2:10 PM EDT
- DodgersCubs8/5 - 2:20 PM EDT
- GiantsRangers8/5 - 2:35 PM EDT
- RaysRockies8/5 - 3:10 PM EDT
- AngelsOrioles8/5 - 6:35 PM EDT
- AthleticsReds8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- NationalsPhillies8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsYankees8/5 - 7:05 PM EDT
- White SoxRed Sox8/5 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsBraves8/5 - 7:15 PM EDT
- PiratesBrewers8/5 - 7:30 PM EDT
- TwinsRoyals8/5 - 7:40 PM EDT
- TigersMariners8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PadresDiamondbacks8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
