New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 5, 2026

NYM

34-42

PregameWed, 6:40 PM EDT

CLE

41-36

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 8/4

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.5± 2.7medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.1± 2.1medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.1medium

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.3± 1.2high
Juan SotoNYM
1.3± 1.0high
Austin HedgesCLE
0.9± 0.7high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.7high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.2± 2.5high
Gabriel AriasCLE
1.6± 2.0low

RBIs

Bo BichetteNYM
0.8± 1.9high
Juan SotoNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Daniel SchneemannCLE
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.0± 2.8low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
3.0± 2.9medium
David PetersonNYM
2.8± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

CLE

.671

OPS

.719

▶

.686

.298

OBP

.319

▶

.314

4.07

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.07

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.81

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

9.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.