HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sanchez (PHI): 6.0 IP · 11 K in a win over BAL — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over KC — Standout Index 93
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Placed C Jesus Rodriguez on the 10-day injured reserve list (Aug 1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Rasmussen (TB): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CHW — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 36 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST against CHI
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated LHP Cole Irvin for assignment (Aug 1)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Ionescu (NY): 27 PTS · 7 REB · 10 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Perez (ATL): 7.0 IP · 6 K in a win over WSH
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Sent RHP Andrew Wantz outright to Iowa (IL) (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Released G Eliska Hamzova (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · NFLFalcons: Signed G Matthew Bergeron to a 4-year, $96M contract extension (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · NFLBroncos: Reverted DB Blake Cotton to injured reserve after clearing waivers (Aug 1)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ GS, 8/2 - 8:30 PM EDT — GS -12.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sanchez (PHI): 6.0 IP · 11 K in a win over BAL — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over KC — Standout Index 93
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Placed C Jesus Rodriguez on the 10-day injured reserve list (Aug 1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Rasmussen (TB): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CHW — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 36 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST against CHI
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated LHP Cole Irvin for assignment (Aug 1)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Ionescu (NY): 27 PTS · 7 REB · 10 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Perez (ATL): 7.0 IP · 6 K in a win over WSH
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Sent RHP Andrew Wantz outright to Iowa (IL) (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Released G Eliska Hamzova (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · NFLFalcons: Signed G Matthew Bergeron to a 4-year, $96M contract extension (Aug 1)
TRANSACTION · NFLBroncos: Reverted DB Blake Cotton to injured reserve after clearing waivers (Aug 1)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ GS, 8/2 - 8:30 PM EDT — GS -12.5
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San Diego Padres
SD#7 · National League

San Diego Padres

57-54 (51.4%) · W2 · L10 7-3

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#16 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .487 · exp 54.1-56.9 vs act 57-54 · n=111 · luck +2.9W · thru 2026-08-01 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-28 → 2026-08-01 · Full ATS profile →

WWon by 1 vs COL, 8-7, 2026-07-28. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 2 vs COL, 3-1, 2026-07-29. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 3 vs SF, 1-4, 2026-07-30. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 7 vs SF, 7-0, 2026-07-31. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 vs SF, 6-5, 2026-08-01. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr.110 G.753
  2. 2Manny Machado108 G.730
  3. 3Gavin Sheets104 G.707
  4. 4Jackson Merrill108 G.673
  5. 5Xander Bogaerts105 G.636

Home runs

  1. 1Manny Machado108 G23
  2. 2Jackson Merrill108 G15
  3. 3Gavin Sheets104 G14
  4. 4Xander Bogaerts105 G9
  5. 5Fernando Tatis Jr.110 G8

RBI

  1. 1Manny Machado108 G65
  2. 2Jackson Merrill108 G50
  3. 3Fernando Tatis Jr.110 G49
  4. 4Gavin Sheets104 G43
  5. 5Xander Bogaerts105 G40

Batting average

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr.110 G.283
  2. 2Jackson Merrill108 G.234
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts105 G.221
  4. 4Gavin Sheets104 G.213
  5. 5Manny Machado108 G.213

Stolen bases

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr.110 G26
  2. 2Jackson Merrill108 G21
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts105 G14
  4. 4Gavin Sheets104 G4
  5. 5Manny Machado108 G2

ERA

  1. 1Michael King125.3 IP3.38

WHIP

  1. 1Michael King125.3 IP1.17

Strikeouts

  1. 1Michael King125.3 IP109

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.235vs .244Slight gap

OBP

.312vs .318Slight gap

SLG

.384vs .402Slight gap

OPS

.696vs .720Slight gap

HR

120

R / G

4.2

K / G

8.2

Pitching

ERA

4.14vs 4.18League avg

FIP (approx)

4.21vs 4.19League avg

WHIP

1.33vs 1.31Slight gap

K / 9

8.3vs 8.5Slight gap

BB / 9

3.6vs 3.4Slight gap

BAA

.247

HR / 9

1.1

GP

111

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.40.81.11.51st · 0.42 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.251st2nd · 0.50 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.172nd3rd · 0.25 for / 0.75 against · margin -0.503rd4th · 1.08 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.75PEAK4th5th · 0.33 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.005th6th · 0.33 for / 0.08 against · margin +0.256th7th · 0.42 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.007th8th · 1.17 for / 0.83 against · margin +0.338th9th · 0.67 for / 0.00 against · margin +0.679thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

5.2 avg / 3.6 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

4.93

Blowout wins (4+)

5

Shutout games

2

Form last 30

14-16

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.9 runs

1234AVG 4.920313243244536473891011RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-06-28 → 2026-08-01

Record

14-16

Win pct

46.7%

Avg margin

-0.1

Longest W

5

Longest L

7

Upset wins

6

Favorite losses

4

2026-06-28 · vs LAD · L 2-4 · model gave 43%LAD2026-06-29 · @ CHC · L 2-3 · model gave 39%CHC2026-06-30 · @ CHC · L 7-9 · model gave 38%CHC2026-07-01 · @ CHC · L 3-23 · model gave 37%CHC2026-07-02 · @ LAD · L 7-12 · model gave 32%LAD2026-07-03 · @ LAD · L 3-4 · model gave 32%LAD2026-07-04 · @ LAD · L 0-3 · model gave 32%LAD2026-07-05 · @ LAD · W 5-2 · model gave 33%LAD2026-07-06 · vs ARI · L 0-8 · model gave 56%ARI2026-07-07 · vs ARI · W 4-1 · model gave 57%ARI2026-07-08 · vs ARI · W 10-4 · model gave 55%ARI2026-07-09 · vs ARI · L 1-3 · model gave 55%ARI2026-07-10 · vs TOR · L 3-5 · model gave 63%TOR2026-07-11 · vs TOR · W 8-7 · model gave 63%TOR2026-07-12 · vs TOR · W 5-4 · model gave 63%TOR2026-07-17 · @ KC · L 6-7 · model gave 47%KC2026-07-18 · @ KC · L 1-6 · model gave 48%KC2026-07-19 · @ KC · W 19-2 · model gave 47%KC2026-07-20 · @ ATL · L 2-3 · model gave 40%ATL2026-07-21 · @ ATL · W 8-3 · model gave 40%ATL2026-07-22 · @ ATL · L 6-7 · model gave 41%ATL2026-07-23 · @ ATL · L 5-6 · model gave 42%ATL2026-07-24 · @ MIA · W 4-2 · model gave 47%MIA2026-07-25 · @ MIA · W 7-2 · model gave 46%MIA2026-07-26 · @ MIA · W 5-3 · model gave 47%MIA2026-07-28 · vs COL · W 8-7 · model gave 66%COL2026-07-29 · vs COL · W 3-1 · model gave 65%COL2026-07-30 · vs SF · L 1-4 · model gave 59%SF2026-07-31 · vs SF · W 7-0 · model gave 59%SF2026-08-01 · vs SF · W 6-5 · model gave 59%SF

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

167 games · 2025-08-02 → 2026-08-01

Peak 1556 · Now 1507 · Trough 1483

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Designated RF Bryce Johnson for assignment. Reinstated SS Xander Bogaerts from the paternity list.

  2. Jun 10

    Agreed to terms with 1B Nick Pratto on a minor league contract.

  3. Jun 9

    Placed SS Xander Bogaerts on the paternity list. Recalled 3B Will Wagner from El Paso (PCL).

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Adrian Morejon

A. Morejon

RP · #50

Bradgley Rodriguez

B. Rodriguez

RP · #72

Fernando Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF · #23

Freddy Fermin

F. Fermin

C · #54

Gavin Sheets

G. Sheets

1B · #30

German Marquez

G. Marquez

SP · #33

Griffin Canning

G. Canning

SP · #17

Jackson Merrill

J. Merrill

CF · #3

Jake Cronenworth

J. Cronenworth

2B · #9

Jase Bowen

J. Bowen

RF · #4

Jeremiah Estrada

J. Estrada

RP · #56

JP Sears

J. Sears

SP · #38

Kyle Hart

K. Hart

RP · #68

Luis Campusano

L. Campusano

C · #12

Luis Rengifo

L. Rengifo

3B · #21

Manny Machado

M. Machado

3B · #13

Mason Miller

M. Miller

RP · #22

Michael King

M. King

SP · #34

Randy Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP · #98

Rodolfo Duran

R. Duran

C · #48

Sung-Mun Song

S. Song

2B · #24

Ty France

T. France

1B · #25

Walker Buehler

W. Buehler

SP · #10

Wandy Peralta

W. Peralta

RP · #58

Xander Bogaerts

X. Bogaerts

SS · #2

Yuki Matsui

Y. Matsui

RP · #1

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-38
60%Last 30 · 249-169
Receipts →

Model picks on SD

38-35 graded · 52.1% (95% CI 40.8-63.1) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26

All MLB · 698-590 graded

Tonight's graded board →