HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
MLBEnd 2
CHW 1@NYY 1
-1.2pphigh
MLBBot 1
SF 1@ATL 1
-2.9ppmedium
MLBTop 3
TOR 1@BOS 0
-24.4pphigh
MLBBot 4
KC 0@WSH 2
+36.3pplow
MLBTop 2
NYM 0@CIN 4
+45.5pplow
MLBEnd 3
MIA 0@PHI 7
+43.3pplow
WNBA7:27 - 2nd
TOR 30@IND 34
+1.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RHP Daniel Palencia on the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
MLBEnd 2
CHW 1@NYY 1
-1.2pphigh
MLBBot 1
SF 1@ATL 1
-2.9ppmedium
MLBTop 3
TOR 1@BOS 0
-24.4pphigh
MLBBot 4
KC 0@WSH 2
+36.3pplow
MLBTop 2
NYM 0@CIN 4
+45.5pplow
MLBEnd 3
MIA 0@PHI 7
+43.3pplow
WNBA7:27 - 2nd
TOR 30@IND 34
+1.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RHP Daniel Palencia on the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
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San Diego Padres
SD#6 · National League

San Diego Padres

37-34 (52.1%) · L1 · L10 5-5

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#17 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .479 · exp 34-37 vs act 37-34 · n=71 · luck +3.0W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-10 → 2026-06-15 · Full ATS profile →

WWon by 1 vs CIN, 5-4, 2026-06-10. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 4 at BAL, 3-7, 2026-06-12. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 6 at BAL, 9-3, 2026-06-13. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 3 at BAL, 5-2, 2026-06-14. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 3 at STL, 0-3, 2026-06-15. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Gavin Sheets65 G.769
  2. 2Fernando Tatis Jr.70 G.691
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts67 G.651
  4. 4Manny Machado69 G.613
  5. 5Jackson Merrill68 G.612

Home runs

  1. 1Manny Machado69 G12
  2. 2Gavin Sheets65 G11
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts67 G8
  4. 4Jackson Merrill68 G7
  5. 5Fernando Tatis Jr.70 G2

RBI

  1. 1Manny Machado69 G35
  2. 2Gavin Sheets65 G30
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts67 G27
  4. 4Jackson Merrill68 G27
  5. 5Fernando Tatis Jr.70 G24

Batting average

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr.70 G.279
  2. 2Gavin Sheets65 G.228
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts67 G.226
  4. 4Jackson Merrill68 G.205
  5. 5Manny Machado69 G.177

Stolen bases

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr.70 G17
  2. 2Jackson Merrill68 G11
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts67 G9
  4. 4Gavin Sheets65 G3
  5. 5Manny Machado69 G1

ERA

  1. 1Michael King80.7 IP3.46
  2. 2Randy Vásquez74.3 IP3.63

WHIP

  1. 1Michael King80.7 IP1.15
  2. 2Randy Vásquez74.3 IP1.32

Strikeouts

  1. 1Michael King80.7 IP72
  2. 2Randy Vásquez74.3 IP58

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.217vs .243Below avg

OBP

.291vs .319Below avg

SLG

.361vs .398Below avg

OPS

.652vs .717Below avg

HR

73

R / G

3.8

K / G

8.4

Pitching

ERA

3.90vs 4.18Above avg

FIP (approx)

4.00vs 4.19Slight edge

WHIP

1.29vs 1.31League avg

K / 9

8.5vs 8.5League avg

BB / 9

3.6vs 3.5League avg

BAA

.241

HR / 9

1.0

GP

71

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.50 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.001st2nd · 0.25 for / 0.58 against · margin -0.332nd3rd · 0.33 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.173rd4th · 0.00 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.504th5th · 0.50 for / 0.83 against · margin -0.335th6th · 0.00 for / 0.25 against · margin -0.256th7th · 0.83 for / 0.75 against · margin +0.087th8th · 0.58 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.42PEAK8th9th · 0.50 for / 0.08 against · margin +0.429thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

3.5 avg / 3.8 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

3.27

Blowout wins (4+)

4

Shutout games

5

Form last 30

13-17

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 3.3 runs

2356AVG 3.350162633456378910RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-05-13 → 2026-06-15

Record

13-17

Win pct

43.3%

Avg margin

-0.5

Longest W

4

Longest L

6

Upset wins

2

Favorite losses

10

2026-05-13 · @ MIL · W 3-1 · model gave 39%MIL2026-05-14 · @ MIL · L 1-7 · model gave 39%MIL2026-05-15 · @ SEA · W 2-0 · model gave 52%SEA2026-05-16 · @ SEA · W 7-4 · model gave 52%SEA2026-05-17 · @ SEA · W 8-3 · model gave 51%SEA2026-05-18 · vs LAD · W 1-0 · model gave 48%LAD2026-05-19 · vs LAD · L 4-5 · model gave 48%LAD2026-05-20 · vs LAD · L 0-4 · model gave 49%LAD2026-05-22 · vs ATH · W 7-3 · model gave 58%ATH2026-05-23 · vs ATH · W 2-0 · model gave 59%ATH2026-05-24 · vs ATH · L 2-5 · model gave 59%ATH2026-05-25 · vs PHI · L 0-3 · model gave 52%PHI2026-05-26 · vs PHI · L 3-4 · model gave 52%PHI2026-05-27 · vs PHI · L 0-3 · model gave 53%PHI2026-05-29 · @ WSH · W 7-5 · model gave 50%WSH2026-05-30 · @ WSH · L 4-9 · model gave 52%WSH2026-05-31 · @ WSH · L 2-4 · model gave 52%WSH2026-06-02 · @ PHI · L 2-3 · model gave 44%PHI2026-06-03 · @ PHI · L 2-3 · model gave 44%PHI2026-06-04 · @ PHI · L 4-6 · model gave 43%PHI2026-06-05 · vs NYM · L 0-5 · model gave 56%NYM2026-06-06 · vs NYM · W 3-2 · model gave 57%NYM2026-06-07 · vs NYM · L 3-7 · model gave 58%NYM2026-06-08 · vs CIN · W 6-2 · model gave 58%CIN2026-06-09 · vs CIN · L 3-5 · model gave 58%CIN2026-06-10 · vs CIN · W 5-4 · model gave 58%CIN2026-06-12 · @ BAL · L 3-7 · model gave 51%BAL2026-06-13 · @ BAL · W 9-3 · model gave 51%BAL2026-06-14 · @ BAL · W 5-2 · model gave 51%BAL2026-06-15 · @ STL · L 0-3 · model gave 44%STL

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

166 games · 2025-06-17 → 2026-06-15

Peak 1545 · Now 1501 · Trough 1498

Next 5 games

The road ahead

@STLpwr 63
@STLpwr 63
@TEXpwr —
@TEXpwr —
@TEXpwr —

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Designated RF Bryce Johnson for assignment. Reinstated SS Xander Bogaerts from the paternity list.

  2. Jun 10

    Agreed to terms with 1B Nick Pratto on a minor league contract.

  3. Jun 9

    Placed SS Xander Bogaerts on the paternity list. Recalled 3B Will Wagner from El Paso (PCL).

Source · ESPN

Position players · 27

Hitters & fielders

Adrian Morejon

A. Morejon

RP · #50

Blake Hunt

B. Hunt

C · #26

Bradgley Rodriguez

B. Rodriguez

RP · #72

David Morgan

D. Morgan

RP · #66

Fernando Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF · #23

Gavin Sheets

G. Sheets

1B · #30

Griffin Canning

G. Canning

SP · #17

Jackson Merrill

J. Merrill

CF · #3

Jase Bowen

J. Bowen

RF · #4

Jason Adam

J. Adam

RP · #40

Kyle Hart

K. Hart

RP · #68

Lucas Giolito

L. Giolito

SP · #55

Manny Machado

M. Machado

3B · #13

Michael King

M. King

SP · #34

Nick Solak

N. Solak

1B · #15

Randy Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP · #98

Rodolfo Duran

R. Duran

C · #48

Ron Marinaccio

R. Marinaccio

RP · #97

Samad Taylor

S. Taylor

LF · #0

Sung-Mun Song

S. Song

2B · #24

Ty France

T. France

1B · #25

Walker Buehler

W. Buehler

SP · #10

Wandy Peralta

W. Peralta

RP · #58

Will Wagner

W. Wagner

3B · #7

Xander Bogaerts

X. Bogaerts

SS · #2

Yu Darvish

Y. Darvish

SP · #11

Yuki Matsui

Y. Matsui

RP · #1

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 62-35
61%Last 30 · 299-189
Receipts →

Model picks on SD

35-29 graded · 54.7% (95% CI 42.6-66.3) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26

All MLB · 594-464 graded

Tonight's graded board →