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ATL#3 · National League
Atlanta Braves
64-45 (58.7%) · W2 · L10 6-4
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#3 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .591 · exp 64.4-44.6 vs act 64-45 · n=109 · luck -0.4W · thru 2026-07-31 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-07-26 → 2026-07-30 · Full ATS profile →
Won by 1 at BAL, 3-2, 2026-07-26. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Lost by 11 at NYM, 3-14, 2026-07-27. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Won by 1 at NYM, 1-0, 2026-07-29. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Lost by 1 at NYM, 2-3, 2026-07-29. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Won by 1 vs WSH, 5-4, 2026-07-30. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Stat leaders
Who carries them
OPS
- 1Matt Olson110 G.870
- 2Drake Baldwin87 G.842
- 3Michael Harris II104 G.814
- 4Ozzie Albies110 G.751
- 5Mauricio Dubón106 G.708
Home runs
- 1Matt Olson110 G29
- 2Michael Harris II104 G20
- 3Drake Baldwin87 G20
- 4Ozzie Albies110 G18
- 5Austin Riley109 G12
RBI
- 1Matt Olson110 G67
- 2Michael Harris II104 G64
- 3Ozzie Albies110 G62
- 4Drake Baldwin87 G56
- 5Mauricio Dubón106 G55
Batting average
- 1Michael Harris II104 G.290
- 2Drake Baldwin87 G.276
- 3Matt Olson110 G.264
- 4Ozzie Albies110 G.263
- 5Mauricio Dubón106 G.261
Stolen bases
- 1Austin Riley109 G7
- 2Michael Harris II104 G6
- 3Mauricio Dubón106 G3
- 4Drake Baldwin87 G2
- 5Matt Olson110 G2
ERA
- 1Chris Sale117.0 IP2.08
- 2Bryce Elder119.7 IP3.84
WHIP
- 1Chris Sale117.0 IP1.02
- 2Bryce Elder119.7 IP1.25
Strikeouts
- 1Chris Sale117.0 IP143
- 2Bryce Elder119.7 IP101
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
Hitting + pitching vs league
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
.248vs .244Slight edge
OBP
.315vs .318League avg
SLG
.415vs .401Slight edge
OPS
.730vs .720League avg
HR
145
R / G
4.9
K / G
8.0
Pitching
ERA
3.69vs 4.18Above avg
FIP (approx)
4.16vs 4.19League avg
WHIP
1.25vs 1.30Slight edge
K / 9
8.7vs 8.5Slight edge
BB / 9
3.5vs 3.4League avg
BAA
.231
HR / 9
1.2
GP
110
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
When they score
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
ForAgainst
3.8 avg / 4.6 allowed
Plate signature
The strike zone
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
4.87
Blowout wins (4+)
4
Shutout games
1
Form last 30
16-14
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
How they score
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 4.9 runs
Form heatmap
The margin trail
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-06-26 → 2026-07-30
Record
16-14
Win pct
53.3%
Avg margin
+0.2
Longest W
3
Longest L
3
Upset wins
4
Favorite losses
9
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
The Elo timeline
163 games · 2025-08-01 → 2026-07-30
Peak 1591 · Now 1529 · Trough 1451
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 12
Reinstated RHP Hurston Waldrep from the 60-day IL. Optioned RHP Hurston Waldrep to Gwinnett (IL). Released C Maverick Handley. Sent RHP Carlos Carrasco outright to Gwinnett.
- Jun 11
Sent RHP Hurston Waldrep on a rehab assignment to Columbus (IL).
- Jun 10
Placed RHP Tyler Kinley on the 15-day IL retroactive to June 8. Designated RHPs Jhancarlos Lara and Carlos Carrasco for assignment. Selected the contract of 1B Rowdy Tellez and RHP James Karinchak from Gwinnett (IL). Recalled RHP JR Ritchie from Gwinnett. Placed RF Ronald Acuña Jr. on the 10-day IL. Agreed to terms with OF Elioberto Mondesir on a minor league contract.
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26
Hitters & fielders
A. Riley
3B · #27
B. Elder
SP · #55
C. Sale
SP · #51
D. Young
RP · #63
D. Fuentes
RP · #72
D. Smith
DH · #8
D. Baldwin
C · #30
D. Dodd
RP · #46
D. Lee
RP · #52
E. White
RF · #36
E. Hernandez
RP · #57
G. Holmes
SP · #66
J. Jarvis
SS · #74
J. Bart
C · #16
J. Mateo
SS · #2
M. Perez
SP · #33
M. Olson
1B · #28
M. Dubon
LF · #14
M. Harris II
CF · #23
M. Yastrzemski
LF · #18
O. Albies
2B · #1
R. Iglesias
RP · #26
R. Lopez
RP · #40
R. Acuna Jr.
RF · #13
T. Kinley
RP · #45
V
V. Mederos
RP · #58