HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Sent LHP DJ Herz on a rehab assignment to Fredericksburg (CRL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Kurtz (ATH): 3 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PIT — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMarlins: Optioned RHP William Kempner to Jacksonville (IL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAJ. Shepard (DAL): 15 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST in a win over LV
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Ogunbowale (DAL): 22 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST in a win over LV
TRANSACTION · MLBBraves: Selected the contract of CF Brewer Hicklen from Gwinnett (IL) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NFLTitans: Signed C Andre James and DL Jalyn Holmes to contracts (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLJets: Signed F Walker Duehr to a two-year contract (Jun 15)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Signed C Tins Luc Koblar to a three-year contract (Jun 15)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ IND, 6/16 - 7:00 PM EDT — IND -8.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Sent LHP DJ Herz on a rehab assignment to Fredericksburg (CRL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Kurtz (ATH): 3 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PIT — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMarlins: Optioned RHP William Kempner to Jacksonville (IL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAJ. Shepard (DAL): 15 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST in a win over LV
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Ogunbowale (DAL): 22 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST in a win over LV
TRANSACTION · MLBBraves: Selected the contract of CF Brewer Hicklen from Gwinnett (IL) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NFLTitans: Signed C Andre James and DL Jalyn Holmes to contracts (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLJets: Signed F Walker Duehr to a two-year contract (Jun 15)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Signed C Tins Luc Koblar to a three-year contract (Jun 15)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ IND, 6/16 - 7:00 PM EDT — IND -8.5
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Atlanta Braves
ATL#1 · National League

Atlanta Braves

46-25 (64.8%) · L1 · L10 5-5

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#4 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .656 · exp 46.6-24.4 vs act 46-25 · n=71 · luck -0.6W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-09 → 2026-06-14 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 1 at CHW, 5-6, 2026-06-09. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 1 at CHW, 1-2, 2026-06-10. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 2 at NYM, 5-7, 2026-06-12. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 2 at NYM, 3-1, 2026-06-13. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 7 at NYM, 1-8, 2026-06-14. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Matt Olson71 G.894
  2. 2Michael Harris II67 G.849
  3. 3Ronald Acuña Jr.53 G.794
  4. 4Ozzie Albies71 G.772
  5. 5Mauricio Dubón67 G.716

Home runs

  1. 1Matt Olson71 G20
  2. 2Michael Harris II67 G14
  3. 3Ozzie Albies71 G10
  4. 4Austin Riley71 G8
  5. 5Ronald Acuña Jr.53 G7

RBI

  1. 1Matt Olson71 G51
  2. 2Michael Harris II67 G41
  3. 3Ozzie Albies71 G37
  4. 4Mauricio Dubón67 G37
  5. 5Austin Riley71 G34

Batting average

  1. 1Michael Harris II67 G.303
  2. 2Ozzie Albies71 G.279
  3. 3Matt Olson71 G.270
  4. 4Mauricio Dubón67 G.259
  5. 5Ronald Acuña Jr.53 G.251

Stolen bases

  1. 1Ronald Acuña Jr.53 G15
  2. 2Austin Riley71 G4
  3. 3Michael Harris II67 G3
  4. 4Matt Olson71 G2
  5. 5Ozzie Albies71 G1

ERA

  1. 1Chris Sale78.3 IP2.30
  2. 2Bryce Elder88.7 IP3.15

WHIP

  1. 1Chris Sale78.3 IP1.05
  2. 2Bryce Elder88.7 IP1.14

Strikeouts

  1. 1Chris Sale78.3 IP92
  2. 2Bryce Elder88.7 IP73

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.254vs .243Slight edge

OBP

.320vs .319League avg

SLG

.424vs .398Above avg

OPS

.744vs .717Slight edge

HR

95

R / G

5.1

K / G

7.8

Pitching

ERA

3.29vs 4.18Above avg

FIP (approx)

3.89vs 4.18Above avg

WHIP

1.18vs 1.31Above avg

K / 9

8.8vs 8.5Slight edge

BB / 9

3.3vs 3.5Above avg

BAA

.221

HR / 9

1.1

GP

71

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.67 for / 0.75 against · margin -0.081st2nd · 0.42 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.082nd3rd · 0.83 for / 0.92 against · margin -0.083rd4th · 0.08 for / 0.58 against · margin -0.504th5th · 0.67 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.335th6th · 0.17 for / 0.25 against · margin -0.086th7th · 0.58 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.42PEAK7th8th · 0.33 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.178th9th · 0.08 for / 0.42 against · margin -0.339thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

3.8 avg / 4.1 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

4.37

Blowout wins (4+)

7

Shutout games

4

Form last 30

18-12

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.4 runs

1345AVG 4.4403122333455262738291011RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-05-12 → 2026-06-14

Record

18-12

Win pct

60.0%

Avg margin

+0.7

Longest W

4

Longest L

3

Favorite losses

12

2026-05-12 · vs CHC · W 5-2 · model gave 59%CHC2026-05-13 · vs CHC · W 4-1 · model gave 58%CHC2026-05-14 · vs CHC · L 0-2 · model gave 59%CHC2026-05-15 · vs BOS · W 3-2 · model gave 65%BOS2026-05-16 · vs BOS · L 2-3 · model gave 66%BOS2026-05-17 · vs BOS · W 8-1 · model gave 66%BOS2026-05-18 · @ MIA · L 0-12 · model gave 61%MIA2026-05-19 · @ MIA · W 8-4 · model gave 62%MIA2026-05-20 · @ MIA · W 9-1 · model gave 62%MIA2026-05-21 · @ MIA · W 9-3 · model gave 60%MIA2026-05-22 · vs WSH · W 5-4 · model gave 65%WSH2026-05-23 · vs WSH · L 0-2 · model gave 65%WSH2026-05-24 · vs WSH · L 1-2 · model gave 64%WSH2026-05-26 · @ BOS · W 7-6 · model gave 60%BOS2026-05-27 · @ BOS · L 0-8 · model gave 61%BOS2026-05-28 · @ BOS · W 10-2 · model gave 59%BOS2026-05-29 · @ CIN · W 8-3 · model gave 56%CIN2026-05-30 · @ CIN · W 5-2 · model gave 57%CIN2026-05-31 · @ CIN · L 4-6 · model gave 59%CIN2026-06-02 · vs TOR · W 4-3 · model gave 69%TOR2026-06-03 · vs TOR · W 7-3 · model gave 69%TOR2026-06-04 · vs TOR · L 2-7 · model gave 69%TOR2026-06-05 · vs PIT · W 6-3 · model gave 68%PIT2026-06-06 · vs PIT · W 6-3 · model gave 68%PIT2026-06-07 · vs PIT · W 3-2 · model gave 67%PIT2026-06-09 · @ CHW · L 5-6 · model gave 51%CHW2026-06-10 · @ CHW · L 1-2 · model gave 51%CHW2026-06-12 · @ NYM · L 5-7 · model gave 59%NYM2026-06-13 · @ NYM · W 3-1 · model gave 59%NYM2026-06-14 · @ NYM · L 1-8 · model gave 59%NYM

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

163 games · 2025-06-17 → 2026-06-14

Peak 1591 · Now 1565 · Trough 1448

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Reinstated RHP Hurston Waldrep from the 60-day IL. Optioned RHP Hurston Waldrep to Gwinnett (IL). Released C Maverick Handley. Sent RHP Carlos Carrasco outright to Gwinnett.

  2. Jun 11

    Sent RHP Hurston Waldrep on a rehab assignment to Columbus (IL).

  3. Jun 10

    Placed RHP Tyler Kinley on the 15-day IL retroactive to June 8. Designated RHPs Jhancarlos Lara and Carlos Carrasco for assignment. Selected the contract of 1B Rowdy Tellez and RHP James Karinchak from Gwinnett (IL). Recalled RHP JR Ritchie from Gwinnett. Placed RF Ronald Acuña Jr. on the 10-day IL. Agreed to terms with OF Elioberto Mondesir on a minor league contract.

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Anthony Molina

A. Molina

RP · #61

Austin Riley

A. Riley

3B · #27

Bryce Elder

B. Elder

SP · #55

Chris Sale

C. Sale

SP · #51

Didier Fuentes

D. Fuentes

RP · #72

Dominic Smith

D. Smith

DH · #8

Drake Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C · #30

Dylan Dodd

D. Dodd

RP · #46

Dylan Lee

D. Lee

RP · #52

Eli White

E. White

CF · #36

Grant Holmes

G. Holmes

SP · #66

Ha-Seong Kim

H. Kim

SS · #7

James Karinchak

J. Karinchak

RP · #0

Jorge Mateo

J. Mateo

SS · #2

JR Ritchie

J. Ritchie

SP · #60

Martin Perez

M. Perez

SP · #33

Matt Olson

M. Olson

1B · #28

Mauricio Dubon

M. Dubon

SS · #14

Michael Harris II

M. Harris II

CF · #23

Mike Yastrzemski

M. Yastrzemski

LF · #18

Ozzie Albies

O. Albies

2B · #1

Raisel Iglesias

R. Iglesias

RP · #26

Reynaldo Lopez

R. Lopez

RP · #40

Robert Suarez

R. Suarez

RP · #75

Rowdy Tellez

R. Tellez

1B · #11

Sandy Leon

S. Leon

C · #9

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 62-35
61%Last 30 · 299-189
Receipts →

Model picks on ATL

39-20 graded · 66.1% (95% CI 53.4-76.9) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-27

All MLB · 594-464 graded

Tonight's graded board →