
46-25 (64.8%) · L1 · L10 5-5
Model verdict
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#4 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .656 · exp 46.6-24.4 vs act 46-25 · n=71 · luck -0.6W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-06-09 → 2026-06-14 · Full ATS profile →
Stat leaders
OPS
Home runs
RBI
Batting average
Stolen bases
ERA
WHIP
Strikeouts
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
HR
95
R / G
5.1
K / G
7.8
Pitching
ERA
FIP (approx)
WHIP
K / 9
BB / 9
BAA
.221
HR / 9
1.1
GP
71
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
3.8 avg / 4.1 allowed
Plate signature
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
4.37
Blowout wins (4+)
7
Shutout games
4
Form last 30
18-12
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 4.4 runs
Form heatmap
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-05-12 → 2026-06-14
Record
18-12
Win pct
60.0%
Avg margin
+0.7
Longest W
4
Longest L
3
Favorite losses
12
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
163 games · 2025-06-17 → 2026-06-14
Peak 1591 · Now 1565 · Trough 1448
Recent transactions
Reinstated RHP Hurston Waldrep from the 60-day IL. Optioned RHP Hurston Waldrep to Gwinnett (IL). Released C Maverick Handley. Sent RHP Carlos Carrasco outright to Gwinnett.
Sent RHP Hurston Waldrep on a rehab assignment to Columbus (IL).
Placed RHP Tyler Kinley on the 15-day IL retroactive to June 8. Designated RHPs Jhancarlos Lara and Carlos Carrasco for assignment. Selected the contract of 1B Rowdy Tellez and RHP James Karinchak from Gwinnett (IL). Recalled RHP JR Ritchie from Gwinnett. Placed RF Ronald Acuña Jr. on the 10-day IL. Agreed to terms with OF Elioberto Mondesir on a minor league contract.
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26

A. Molina
RP · #61

A. Riley
3B · #27

B. Elder
SP · #55

C. Sale
SP · #51

D. Fuentes
RP · #72

D. Smith
DH · #8

D. Baldwin
C · #30

D. Dodd
RP · #46

D. Lee
RP · #52

E. White
CF · #36

G. Holmes
SP · #66

H. Kim
SS · #7

J. Karinchak
RP · #0

J. Mateo
SS · #2

J. Ritchie
SP · #60

M. Perez
SP · #33

M. Olson
1B · #28

M. Dubon
SS · #14

M. Harris II
CF · #23

M. Yastrzemski
LF · #18

O. Albies
2B · #1

R. Iglesias
RP · #26

R. Lopez
RP · #40

R. Suarez
RP · #75

R. Tellez
1B · #11

S. Leon
C · #9
Model picks on ATL
39-20 graded · 66.1% (95% CI 53.4-76.9) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-27
All MLB · 594-464 graded