Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at STL?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 28, 2026

FINAL+8CHC

CHC

61-46

102

STL

53-54

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

29,097 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

STL no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
43.2%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.4%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.8%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at STL?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.6pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best

-128DraftKings

edge +8.6pp · implied 52.8%

STL

no live price

Book	CHC	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	-128★	-101	+8.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high
Hunter DobbinsSTL
4.5± 1.0low

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.3high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Alex BregmanCHC
2.1± 2.7high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 3.6high
Nico HoernerCHC
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Tyrone TaylorCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

STL

.754

OPS

◀

.720

.694

.339

OBP

◀

.318

.315

5.13

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.35

4.06

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.15

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.34

7.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 10 · STL 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	2	5	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	10
STL	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.285	4	0	0	1	0	0	3
S. SuzukiRF	.272	5	2	3	2	0	0	2
M. Busch1B	.244	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.245	5	2	3	0	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.221	4	1	2	2	0	1	1
N. Hoerner2B	.254	4	1	1	2	0	1	1
M. ConfortoDH	.244	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. KellyC	.260	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
P. Ramirez2B	.322	5	1	3	1	0	0	1
J. Triantos2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeanCF	.375	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		42	10	17	10	0	3	10

Player

.285

.272

.244

.245

.221

.254

.244

.260

.322

.500

.375

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	6.0	4	1	1	2	2	94
T. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
A. WantzRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	0	27
Team	9.0	7	2	2	3	2	135

Player

C. ReaSP

6.0

T. FergusonRP

1.0

A. WantzRP

2.0

Team

9.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.254	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.283	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.283	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
I. HerreraDH	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. NootbaarLF	.243	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. WinnSS	.244	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
N. ChurchCF	.226	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. FerminLF	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.173	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.231	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.229	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.214	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	7	2	0	3	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	1.2	8	7	7	2	2	63
G. GraceffoRP	2.1	1	1	1	1	2	38
J. BruihlRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	4	36
P. StrzeleckiRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	1	30
M. SvansonRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	21
Team	9.0	17	10	10	3	10	188

Team

CHC

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.