NBAAnalytics2025-26
The Model · NBA
55 NBA games graded — 67% called right.
No NBA slate today. The all-time calibration record is the number that doesn’t reset between games. See the receipts →
Model accuracy · NBA
How the NBA model grades
Last 30
64.7%
17 games
Last 90
67.3%
55 games
Reliability curve · is the NBA model calibrated?›
55 picks · 7 buckets
| Predicted | Actual win rate | Sample | 95% CI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 to 55% | 30.0% | 3 of 10 | 11–60% | calibrated |
| 55 to 60% | 57.1% | 4 of 7 | 25–84% | calibrated |
| 60 to 65% | 70.6% | 12 of 17 | 47–87% | calibrated |
| 65 to 70% | 100.0% | 6 of 6 | 61–100% | calibrated |
| 70 to 75% | 100.0% | 7 of 7 | 65–100% | calibrated |
| 75 to 80% | 50.0% | 2 of 4 | 15–85% | calibrated |
| 85 to 90% | 75.0% | 3 of 4 | 30–95% | calibrated |
Beat the close · NBA
+732.7bps · median · robust read
Positive
72%95% CI 60–82%
Graded
65
Tonight · model projections
Player props to watch
Model projection vs season average — biggest moves first. Projections, not odds.
Harrison Barnes
SA vs NY · High conf · 103g
4.40Pts
−3.80 vs season
De'Aaron Fox
SA vs NY · High conf · 97g
14.2Pts
−3.20 vs season
Keldon Johnson
SA vs NY · High conf · 111g
8.90Pts
−3.10 vs season
Jordan Clarkson
NY @ SA · High conf · 96g
5.30Pts
−2.80 vs season
Explore NBA
Live · today’s slate
Tonight’s games
NBA
2026 NBA Draft · June 25-26
The draft surface, in four lanes
Standings · ladder view
Where every team stands
Bar lengths track win-pct vs the conference leader. Dashed line marks the playoff cut.
Eastern Conference
Western Conference
Around the league
Stat leaders · 2025-26 regular season
Who's on top
PPG
Points Per Game
LAL
L. Doncic
33.5
S. Gilgeous-Alexander31.1
A. Edwards28.8RPG
Rebounds Per Game
DEN
N. Jokic
12.9
K. Towns11.9
D. Clingan11.6APG
Assists Per Game
DEN
N. Jokic
10.7
C. Cunningham9.9
J. Giddey9.1Injury report · 127 Out
Notable injuries
127 active leaguewide · capped 2 per team
N. Topic
GBack · Surgery
T. Sorber
CKnee · Surgery
D. Schroder
GIllness · Not Specified
C. Flagg
FAnkle · Sprain
K. Murray
FAnkle · Sprain
J. Giddey
GAnkle · Not Specified
G. Antetokounmpo
FKnee · Bruise
B. Ingram
FHeel · Surgery
B. Miller
FShoulder · Surgery
L. Doncic
GHamstring · Strain
Conference race
The playoff picture
Each team plotted by win-pct. Tighter clustering = closer race. Dashed line marks the playoff cut.
Eastern Conference
.207 · .732
Western Conference
.268 · .780
Against the spread
Building track record. ATS standings appear once we have at least 50 games with a final score and a logged pre-game spread.
