Where do NBA picks come from?

An Elo-based model trained on every regular-season + playoff result back through 2010. Each game's pre-game probability is logged before tip-off and graded against the closing line — no edits after.

How accurate is the model?

Last-30-day hit rate is published live at /model/accuracy with the full ledger downloadable as CSV. Long-run back-tests run ~54% on moneyline picks across 12+ years.

Model-implied win probability minus the no-vig market probability, in percentage points. A +5pp edge means the model thinks the team is 5 percentage points more likely to win than the bookmaker is pricing them at.

Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts

NBAAnalytics2025-26

Every possession, read by the model.

Modelgraded 55 NBA games all-time · 67% · ratings refresh daily

The Model · NBA

55 NBA games graded — 67% called right.

No NBA slate today — we’re between seasons. The all-time calibration record is the number that doesn’t reset between games. See the receipts →

Model accuracy · NBA

How the NBA model grades

See receipts →

Last 90

70.0%

40 games

Reliability curve · is the NBA model calibrated?›

55 picks · 7 buckets

Model calibration: predicted win probability vs actual win rate by bucket, with 95% Wilson confidence intervals, over 55 graded picks.
Predicted	Actual win rate	Sample	95% CI	Verdict
50 to 55%	30.0%	3 of 10	11–60%	calibrated
55 to 60%	57.1%	4 of 7	25–84%	calibrated
60 to 65%	70.6%	12 of 17	47–87%	calibrated
65 to 70%	100.0%	6 of 6	61–100%	calibrated
70 to 75%	100.0%	7 of 7	65–100%	calibrated
75 to 80%	50.0%	2 of 4	15–85%	calibrated
85 to 90%	75.0%	3 of 4	30–95%	calibrated

Beat the close · NBA

+732.7bps · median · robust read

Positive

72%95% CI 60–82%

Graded

Full CLV ledger →

NBA · pace × net rating ladder

How fast they play, how well they score net.

Pace is possessions per 48 — the NBA total signal. Net rating is points per 100 possessions, offense minus defense — the NBA spread signal. Fast + elite NetRating means high totals and short prices.

102.0

league pace · avg

Fast & elite →

CLE

MIN

DET

Pace

possessions / 48

1MIA106.1
2CHI105.0
3UTAH104.9
4ATL104.2
5DAL104.2
6MEM104.1
7WSH104.0
8POR103.6
9IND103.4
10CLE102.6
11ORL102.6
12SA102.5
13MIN102.5
14NO102.5
15DET102.3
16PHI102.3
17SAC101.8
18OKC101.7
19GS101.7
20TOR101.0
21DEN100.8
22LAL100.7
23PHX100.1
24CHA99.9
25MIL99.9
26BKN99.6
27NY99.4
28LAC99.1
29HOU99.0
30BOS97.7

Net rating

ORtg − DRtg

1OKC+11.3
2SA+8.9
3DET+8.2
4BOS+8.1
5NY+7.0
6CLE+4.9
7HOU+4.7
8DEN+4.6
9CHA+4.4
10MIN+3.4
11MIA+3.3
12TOR+3.3
13LAL+3.2
14ATL+2.8
15LAC+2.1
16PHX+1.9
17ORL+0.7
18PHI+0.1
19POR0.0
20GS-0.4
21CHI-4.3
22NO-4.6
23MEM-5.2
24DAL-5.2
25MIL-5.7
26IND-7.0
27UTAH-7.8
28SAC-8.9
29BKN-9.6
30WSH-11.0

Stats: ESPN advanced team statistics, refreshed every 6 hours. Pace tiers: fast = ≥ league avg + 1.5; slow = ≤ league avg − 1.5. NetRating tiers: elite ≥ +5; good ≥ +1; avg ≥ −3; poor < −3.

Tonight · model projections