Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at LAD?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 2, 2026

FINAL+4BOS

BOS

60-51

LAD

69-43

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

46,834 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAD no-vig %

59.3%

open 58.3% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
49.3%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at LAD?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.3pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

BOS

no live price

LAD

★ best

+115DraftKings

edge +5.3pp · implied 43.7%

Book	BOS	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	-149	+115★	+5.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.7± 0.9high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.4high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
2.2± 2.1high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium
Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

LAD

.717

OPS

.720

▶

.770

.317

OBP

.318

▶

.339

4.36

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.07

3.52

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.71

1.23

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 8 · LAD 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	2	0	3	0	0	1	0	2	0	8
LAD	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Sogard3B	.240	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. RafaelaCF	.289	5	2	2	1	1	0	2
W. AbreuRF	.248	4	2	2	1	1	1	0
W. Contreras1B	.284	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. YoshidaDH	.264	4	1	2	2	1	1	0
C. Durbin3B	.243	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
A. MonasterioSS	.259	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. DuranLF	.200	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. NarvaezC	.187	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. Seigler2B	.237	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.255	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	8	9	6	4	5	11

Player

.240

.289

.248

.284

.264

.243

.259

.200

.187

.237

.255

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BennettSP	5.2	6	3	3	2	4	88
J. SlatenRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
T. GuerreroRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	23
J. MoranRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	15
G. WeissertRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	12
Team	9.0	9	4	4	3	6	148

Player

5.2

0.1

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.292	3	0	1	0	0	2	2
A. PagesCF	.270	5	0	2	3	0	0	2
T. Edman2B	.302	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.310	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. BettsSS	.229	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.237	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
T. HernándezLF	.255	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.255	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
E. AlfonzoC	.167	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. CallLF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Hernández1B	.385	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	9	4	0	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. SheehanSP	2.2	6	5	5	1	4	58
J. DreyerRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	27
E. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
K. HurtRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	4	37
W. MillsRP	2.0	2	2	1	2	1	53
Team	9.0	9	8	7	5	11	186

Team

BOS

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.