Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at LAA?

The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+4MIL

MIL

68-41

LAA

42-68

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

43,720 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

LAA no-vig %

39.7%

open 40.0% · -0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

25.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
37.0%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
32.5%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
35.4%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.62

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-168

Close price

-181

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at LAA?: The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.2pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best

-179DraftKings

edge +10.2pp · implied 61.3%

LAA

no live price

Book	MIL	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	-179★	+147	+10.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAA vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Reid DetmersLAA
6.4± 2.0high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.2± 2.8low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.9high
Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 1.2high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 1.9high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.8± 0.9high
Luis LaraMIL
0.8± 1.5medium
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.5± 2.7low
Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.3± 3.3low
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

LAA

.735

OPS

◀

.720

.695

.337

OBP

◀

.318

.313

4.97

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

3.47

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.48

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.36

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 6 · LAA 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	6
LAA	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Turang2B	.271	3	1	1	2	1	2	0
J. ChourioLF	.273	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
C. YelichDH	.240	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.272	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Bauers1B	.269	4	2	2	3	1	1	0
G. MitchellCF	.269	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
L. LaraRF	.261	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. Hamilton3B	.236	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PrattSS	.288	2	1	1	1	0	2	1
Team		36	6	9	6	2	8	8

Player

.271

.273

.240

.272

.269

.269

.261

.236

.288

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. DrohanSP	6.0	4	2	2	1	7	86
G. AndersonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	23
A. UribeRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
T. MegillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	4	2	2	1	10	132

Player

6.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.279	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. SolerDH	.202	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Grissom2B	.264	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. AdellRF	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. Guzman3B	.237	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. d'ArnaudC	.189	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SiriCF	.260	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. MecklerLF	.297	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LoweLF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	4	2	1	1	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. JohnsonSP	4.1	6	5	5	3	3	88
J. FerminRP	2.2	3	1	1	1	4	36
L. MurphySP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	27
S. BachmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	23
Team	9.0	9	6	6	8	8	174

Team

MIL

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAA vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

LAA vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.