Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 2, 2026

FINAL+5CLE

ARI

59-53

CLE

57-56

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

24,869 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

56.1%

open 56.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.2pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

+157DraftKings

edge +4.2pp · implied 37.2%

CLE

no live price

Book	ARI	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+157★	-191	+4.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.1± 2.2high
Parker MessickCLE
5.3± 3.0high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.8± 2.1high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Mitch BrattARI
2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

CLE

.709

OPS

◀

.719

.681

.315

OBP

.318

.312

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

4.20

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.74

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

ARI 0 · CLE 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CLE	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.247	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
G. PerdomoSS	.239	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. MorenoC	.298	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Marte2B	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. KeplerLF	.229	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
N. Arenado3B	.243	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. TawaLF	.209	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
I. Vargas1B	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Locklear1B	.240	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.197	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	2	0	0	5	13

Player

.247

.239

.298

.251

.229

.243

.209

.272

.240

.197

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	5.0	8	5	5	4	5	96
T. ClarkeRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	20
R. ThompsonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	8.0	8	5	5	4	8	127

Player

M. KellySP

5.0

T. ClarkeRP

1.2

R. ThompsonRP

1.1

Team

8.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.261	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
J. Ramirez3B	.233	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. DeLauterRF	.278	4	1	2	3	0	0	1
T. Bazzana2B	.245	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
K. Manzardo1B	.215	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. RocchioSS	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
P. BaileyC	.223	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
P. HalpinCF	.213	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.225	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	5	8	5	1	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	5.2	1	0	0	1	10	89
H. GaddisRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	13
C. YohoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
M. FestaRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	16
C. SmithRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	31
Team	9.0	2	0	0	5	13	161

Team

ARI

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.