
62-49 (55.9%) · L1 · L10 6-4
Model verdict
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#4 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .584 · exp 64.8-46.2 vs act 62-49 · n=111 · luck -2.8W · thru 2026-08-01 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-07-28 → 2026-08-01 · Full ATS profile →
Stat leaders
OPS
Home runs
RBI
Batting average
Stolen bases
ERA
WHIP
Strikeouts
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
HR
156
R / G
4.6
K / G
9.1
Pitching
ERA
FIP (approx)
WHIP
K / 9
BB / 9
BAA
.225
HR / 9
1.0
GP
111
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
3.4 avg / 3.0 allowed
Plate signature
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
3.53
Blowout wins (4+)
3
Shutout games
1
Form last 30
14-16
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 3.5 runs
Form heatmap
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-06-27 → 2026-08-01
Record
14-16
Win pct
46.7%
Avg margin
-0.6
Longest W
4
Longest L
5
Upset wins
8
Favorite losses
5
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
170 games · 2025-08-02 → 2026-08-01
Peak 1607 · Now 1527 · Trough 1500
Recent transactions
Reinstated RHP Angel Chivilli from the 15-day IL and optioned him to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (IL).
Sent RHP Angel Chivilli on a rehab assignment to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (IL).
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26

A. Sanchez
C · #39

A. Rosario
3B · #14

A. Chivilli
RP · #57

A. Volpe
SS · #11

A. Wells
C · #28

B. Rice
1B · #22

B. Headrick
RP · #47

C. Schlittler
SP · #31

D. Bednar
RP · #53

F. Cruz
RP · #63

G. Cole
SP · #45

J. Dominguez
RF · #24

J. Chisholm Jr.
2B · #13

J. Caballero
SS · #72

M. Fried
SP · #54

M. Schuemann
LF · #30

P. Blackburn
RP · #58

P. Goldschmidt
1B · #48

R. McMahon
3B · #19

R. Weathers
SP · #40

R. Yarbrough
RP · #33

S. Jones
CF · #78

T. Hill
RP · #41

T. Grisham
CF · #12

W. Warren
SP · #29

Y. Cruz
RP · #96
Model picks on NYY
41-34 graded · 54.7% (95% CI 43.4-65.4) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26
All MLB · 698-590 graded