Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at COL?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+2TB

67-46

COL

45-69

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

23,071 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

42.8%

open 44.9% · -2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

20.3%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
30.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
32.2%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
30.8%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-136

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at COL?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+71.3pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

+970DraftKings

edge +71.3pp · implied 9.0%

COL

no live price

Book	TB	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	+970★	-1580	+71.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Griffin JaxTB
5.2± 2.3high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.3± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Junior CamineroTB
2.2± 2.7high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Freddy PeraltaTB
3.7± 3.4high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

COL

.733

OPS

.720

▶

.747

.330

OBP

◀

.318

.324

4.48

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.86

3.77

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.52

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.52

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 9 · COL 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +19pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
TB	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9
COL	1	0	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.300	5	2	2	0	0	1	2
J. Aranda1B	.285	5	1	1	3	0	1	1
J. Caminero3B	.284	6	0	2	1	0	0	3
L. HicksC	.400	5	1	2	4	1	1	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.299	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.206	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.228	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. WallsSS	.216	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
R. ViladeRF	.253	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.249	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
Team		43	9	12	8	1	5	11

Player

.300

.285

.284

.400

.200

.299

.206

.228

.216

.253

.259

.249

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. PeraltaSP	3.2	9	7	7	1	3	71
C. BooserRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	8
C. LeguminaRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25
S. MatzSP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	16
K. KellyRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	8
G. CleavingerRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
B. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	11.0	11	7	7	2	8	148

Player

3.2

1.1

2.0

1.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

Team

11.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.293	5	2	3	0	0	0	0
C. CarriggCF	.307	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. MoniakLF	.278	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.255	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.294	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.268	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
W. Castro2B	.264	5	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. BeckLF	.188	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
E. TovarSS	.206	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.281	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		41	7	11	6	2	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HughesSP	5.1	4	5	5	2	7	77
B. BernardinoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	17
P. MushinskiRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	21
J. MejiaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	15
J. RomanoRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	2	25
J. HergetRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
N. FrassoRP	1.0	2	2	1	0	0	18
Team	11.0	12	9	8	5	11	188

Team

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.