Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at MIA?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 24, 2026

FINAL+2SD

51-53

MIA

52-52

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

16,151 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

MIA no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
53.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.9%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at MIA?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.8pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

+171DraftKings

edge +11.8pp · implied 34.7%

MIA

no live price

Book	SD	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	+171★	-228	+11.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.4± 1.9high
Michael KingSD
4.7± 1.6high

Hits

Ty FranceSD
1.3± 1.0high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.2± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Jackson MerrillSD
2.0± 2.1high
Joe MackMIA
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Griffin CanningSD
2.7± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

MIA

.694

OPS

.720

▶

.732

.311

OBP

.318

▶

.325

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.39

4.15

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.00

1.33

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 4 · MIA 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	4
MIA	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.283	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Cronenworth2B	.204	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
M. Machado3B	.208	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
T. France1B	.279	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.223	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.277	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. Sheets1B	.215	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.218	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
S. Song2B	.221	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. BowenRF	.132	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.435	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
F. FerminC	.162	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	4	5	4	1	7	8

Player

.283

.204

.208

.279

.223

.277

.215

.218

.221

.132

.435

.162

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MarquezSP	2.1	3	1	1	0	4	37
K. HartRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	2	28
W. PeraltaRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	20
B. RodriguezRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	22
A. MorejonRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	24
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	9	2	2	1	11	142

Player

2.1

2.0

1.2

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.330	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Stowers1B	.229	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
H. HernandezLF	.250	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
X. Edwards2B	.292	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
L. HicksC	.283	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. ConineRF	.270	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.194	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MackC	.243	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
L. Jimenez3B	.212	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. RuizRF	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	2	9	2	2	1	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GustoSP	3.1	2	1	1	1	4	57
C. GibsonRP	1.0	0	1	1	2	0	17
M. PetersenRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	15
L. BacharRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	25
T. ZuberRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	2	15
J. KingRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	0	18
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	5	4	4	7	8	159

Team

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIA vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIA vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.