MLB·Model edges

Where the modeldisagrees with Vegas.

Every game on tonight's slate, ranked by the gap between our win-probability projection and the implied probability of the current moneyline. Larger gap = sharper edge.

Slate

11 games

With odds

3

Top edge

11.3pp

MLB · model edges · tonight

Where the model disagrees with the price.

11 games priced · top 3 surfaced

All sports →
+11.3ppon TB
TBTBvsSFSF
Model59%
Market48%
BandLock
+5.7ppon CIN
CINCINvsPITPIT
Model50%
Market44%
BandEdge
+5.4ppon NYY
NYYNYYvsBALBAL
Model66%
Market60%
BandEdge

Magnitude is the percentage-point gap between our model's home win probability and the moneyline's implied probability. Edges under ~3pp are at the edge of model noise; meaningful sharps tend to live at 5+ on the same side.