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MLB·Model edges

Where the model
disagrees with Vegas.

Tonight's slate ranked by the gap between the model's home-team win probability and the moneyline's de-juiced implied probability. The list runs largest gap first. Edges under 3 percentage points sit inside model noise; sharps tend to live at five or higher on the same side.

No MLB edges showing tonight — either nothing's on the slate yet or the closing-line ingest hasn't finished its current pass.

See the roadmap →

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MLBTop 3
BOS 4@LAD 3
-26.2ppmedium
WNBA6:55 - 3rd
CON 37@DAL 50
+9.8pplow
TONIGHTGraded picks 9-7 so far (MLB 8-6, WNBA 1-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sanchez (PHI): 6.0 IP · 11 K in a win over BAL — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over KC — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Rasmussen (TB): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CHW — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Claimed 1B Buddy Kennedy off waivers from Seattle (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Sent RHP Joel Kuhnel on a rehab assignment to Nashville (IL) (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Acquired CF Zyhir Hope and RHPs River Ryan and Brady Smith from Detroit in excha…
MLBTop 3
BOS 4@LAD 3
-26.2ppmedium
WNBA6:55 - 3rd
CON 37@DAL 50
+9.8pplow
TONIGHTGraded picks 9-7 so far (MLB 8-6, WNBA 1-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Sanchez (PHI): 6.0 IP · 11 K in a win over BAL — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over KC — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Rasmussen (TB): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CHW — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Claimed 1B Buddy Kennedy off waivers from Seattle (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Sent RHP Joel Kuhnel on a rehab assignment to Nashville (IL) (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Acquired CF Zyhir Hope and RHPs River Ryan and Brady Smith from Detroit in excha…

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 68-45
59%Last 30 · 258-176
Receipts →

MLB · pitching slate

1 matchup, ranked by who's on the mound.

Combined ERA of the two starters is the single biggest total signal in baseball. Best duels at the top — those are the unders to consider first. Bullpen games and shaky arms drift down.

  • avgTop duel7:20 PM
    7.69combined era
    BOSAway

    J. Bennett

    ERA 2.74· 6-4
    LADHome

    E. Sheehan

    ERA 4.95· 4-7

Stats: ESPN MLB scoreboard probables, refreshed hourly. Combined ERA tiers: elite ≤6.5 / good ≤7.5 / avg ≤8.5 / shaky >8.5. ERA before tonight's start is the season number; live splits live on the per-game page.

Model vs DFS book · Underdog

MLB prop edges

Our projection against Underdog's posted line, de-vigged the same way our moneyline edges are. Ranked by the percentage-point gap — a modeled read, not a guaranteed bet.