MLB Model Edges · The One Analytics

Model vs DFS book · Underdog

MLB prop edges

Our projection against Underdog's posted line, de-vigged the same way our moneyline edges are. Ranked by the percentage-point gap — a modeled read, not a guaranteed bet.

MLB · pitching slate

15 matchups, ranked by who's on the mound.

Combined ERA of the two starters is the single biggest total signal in baseball. Best duels at the top — those are the unders to consider first. Bullpen games and shaky arms drift down.

elite duels

eliteTop duel7:05 PM
4.86combined era
CHWAway
D. Martin
ERA 2.41· 9-2
NYYHome
G. Cole
ERA 2.45· 1-1
elite8:10 PM
5.24combined era
DETAway
F. Valdez
ERA 4.40· 3-5
HOUHome
H. Brown
ERA 0.84· 1-0
elite6:45 PM
5.61combined era
TORAway
D. Cease
ERA 2.91· 3-3
BOSHome
P. Tolle
ERA 2.70· 3-3
elite10:10 PM
5.66combined era
TBAway
D. Rasmussen
ERA 2.71· 6-2
LADHome
J. Wrobleski
ERA 2.95· 7-2
elite6:40 PM
6.21combined era
MIAAway
T. Phillips
ERA 1.86· 1-1
PHIHome
J. Luzardo
ERA 4.35· 5-4
good9:40 PM
6.66combined era
BALAway
B. Young
ERA 3.04· 5-1
SEAHome
L. Gilbert
ERA 3.62· 4-4
good6:45 PM
7.04combined era
KCAway
M. Wacha
ERA 3.58· 4-5
WSHHome
F. Griffin
ERA 3.46· 7-2
good7:45 PM
7.34combined era
SDAway
M. King
ERA 3.46· 4-5
STLHome
A. Pallante
ERA 3.88· 7-4
shaky8:05 PM
8.76combined era
MINAway
Z. Matthews
ERA 5.20· 2-4
TEXHome
K. Rocker
ERA 3.56· 2-5
shaky9:40 PM
9.46combined era
LAAAway
R. Detmers
ERA 4.00· 2-5
ARIHome
M. Kelly
ERA 5.46· 5-5
shaky7:15 PM
9.59combined era
SFAway
A. Houser
ERA 5.54· 2-6
ATLHome
G. Holmes
ERA 4.05· 4-2
shaky8:05 PM
10.06combined era
COLAway
R. Feltner
ERA 5.20· 2-2
CHCHome
E. Cabrera
ERA 4.86· 4-3
shaky7:40 PM
11.21combined era
CLEAway
S. Cecconi
ERA 4.83· 3-5
MILHome
R. Gasser
ERA 6.38· 0-3
shaky9:40 PM
11.39combined era
PITAway
M. Keller
ERA 5.14· 5-4
ATHHome
J. Perkins
ERA 6.25· 2-3
shaky7:10 PM
14.61combined era
NYMAway
K. Senga
ERA 9.00· 0-4
CINHome
B. Singer
ERA 5.61· 2-6

Stats: ESPN MLB scoreboard probables, refreshed hourly. Combined ERA tiers: elite ≤6.5 / good ≤7.5 / avg ≤8.5 / shaky >8.5. ERA before tonight's start is the season number; live splits live on the per-game page.

No MLB edges showing tonight — either nothing's on the slate yet or the closing-line ingest hasn't finished its current pass.

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Where the modeldisagrees with Vegas.

MLB prop edges

15 matchups, ranked by who's on the mound.

15 matchups, ranked by who's on the mound.

MLB prop edges

Where the model
disagrees with Vegas.