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MLB · model picks
Tonight's MLB
Model picks
Every game's win probability, computed from a rolling Elo rating that updates after every result. Backtested at 55% on 2,932 games — see the receipts on the results page.
Tonight · 15 games
Sorted by model edge
Locks ★ first · then edges · then leans · tossups last
The One model★ Lock
Wed, Aug 5
TB★
Rays
95-46
vs80.3%TB
COL
Rockies
51-83
TB 80.3%win prob19.7% COL
TB 1585 · COL 1421Box score→
The One model★ Lock
Wed, Aug 5
TOR
Blue Jays
57-90
vs68.6%HOU
HOU★
Astros
77-65
TOR 31.4%win prob68.6% HOU
HOU 1548 · TOR 1432Box score→
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5
NYM
Mets
58-78
vs63.5%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
77-63
NYM 36.5%win prob63.5% CLE
CLE 1536 · NYM 1464Box score→
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5
ATH
Athletics
54-82
vs62.6%CIN
CIN★
Reds
63-70
ATH 37.4%win prob62.6% CIN
CIN 1468 · ATH 1403Box score→
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5
CHW
White Sox
75-60
vs61.6%BOS
BOS★
Red Sox
71-65
CHW 38.4%win prob61.6% BOS
BOS 1582 · CHW 1526Box score→
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5
LAA
Angels
51-85
vs61.6%BAL
BAL★
Orioles
59-80
LAA 38.4%win prob61.6% BAL
BAL 1460 · LAA 1404Box score→
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5
WSH
Nationals
66-67
vs61.0%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
79-67
WSH 39.0%win prob61.0% PHI
PHI 1528 · WSH 1476Box score→
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5
STL
Cardinals
68-63
vs59.5%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
75-62
STL 40.5%win prob59.5% NYY
NYY 1530 · STL 1490Box score→
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5
MIA
Marlins
69-66
vs59.1%ATL
ATL★
Braves
82-56
MIA 40.9%win prob59.1% ATL
ATL 1544 · MIA 1508Box score→
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5
PIT
Pirates
62-66
vs58.9%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
74-57
PIT 41.1%win prob58.9% MIL
MIL 1527 · PIT 1493Box score→
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5
SF
Giants
67-77
vs58.7%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
72-67
SF 41.3%win prob58.7% TEX
TEX 1499 · SF 1467Box score→
The One modelLean
Wed, Aug 5
LAD
Dodgers
84-59
vs56.4%CHC
CHC★
Cubs
78-60
LAD 43.6%win prob56.4% CHC
CHC 1568 · LAD 1553Box score→
The One modelLean
Wed, Aug 5
MIN★
Twins
78-64
vs55.1%MIN
KC
Royals
59-75
MIN 55.1%win prob44.9% KC
MIN 1521 · KC 1476Box score→
The One modelTossup
Wed, Aug 5
SD
Padres
68-67
vs53.6%ARI
ARI★
Diamondbacks
64-70
SD 46.4%win prob53.6% ARI
ARI 1503 · SD 1511Box score→
The One modelTossup
Wed, Aug 5
DET
Tigers
58-73
vs52.9%SEA
SEA★
Mariners
66-75
DET 47.1%win prob52.9% SEA
SEA 1479 · DET 1493Box score→
Power ratings · Elo
Best + worst teams in baseball
Top 5
- 1
Rays
95-46
1585Elo - 2
Red Sox
71-65
1582Elo - 3
Cubs
78-60
1568Elo - 4
Dodgers
84-59
1553Elo - 5
Astros
77-65
1548Elo
Bottom 5
- 1
Athletics
54-82
1403Elo - 2
Angels
51-85
1404Elo - 3
Rockies
51-83
1421Elo - 4
Blue Jays
57-90
1432Elo - 5
Orioles
59-80
1460Elo
How the model works
One Elo rating per team, updated after every game
K-factor 8 with a margin-of-victory bump capped at 1.5×. Home advantage is +24 rating points. Off-season carry regresses 25% to the league mean. No starting-pitcher adjustment, no park factor — yet. The plain rating still beats every consumer-site Elo we've checked at 55% raw hit rate.
See the backtest →