MLB · model picks

Tonight's MLB
Model picks

Every game's win probability, computed from a rolling Elo rating that updates after every result. Backtested at 55% on 2,932 games — see the receipts on the results page.

Tonight · 18 games

Sorted by model edge

Locks ★ first · then edges · then leans · tossups last

Show our work →
The One model★ Lock
Sat, May 2
BAL

BAL

Orioles

15-17

vs66%NYY

NYY★

Yankees

21-11

NYY
BAL 34%win prob66% NYY
NYY 1571 · BAL 1482Box score→
The One modelEdge
Final
ATL8

ATL★

Braves

23-10

vs65%ATL

COL

Rockies

14-19

COL6
ATL 65%win prob35% COL
ATL 1548 · COL 1419✓ model right
The One modelEdge
Final
CHW8

CHW

White Sox

15-17

vs64%SD

SD★

Padres

19-12

SD2
CHW 36%win prob64% SD
SD 1534 · CHW 1459✗ model wrong
The One modelEdge
Sat, May 2
ARI

ARI

Diamondbacks

16-15

vs61%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

20-12

CHC
ARI 39%win prob61% CHC
CHC 1554 · ARI 1500Box score→
The One modelEdge
Final
KC7

KC

Royals

13-19

vs60%SEA

SEA★

Mariners

16-17

SEA6
KC 40%win prob60% SEA
SEA 1526 · KC 1479✗ model wrong
The One modelEdge
Sat, May 2
HOU

HOU

Astros

12-21

vs59%BOS

BOS★

Red Sox

13-19

BOS
HOU 41%win prob59% BOS
BOS 1507 · HOU 1466Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, May 2
SF

SF

Giants

13-19

vs59%TB

TB★

Rays

19-12

TB
SF 41%win prob59% TB
TB 1513 · SF 1473Box score→
The One modelLean
Sat, May 2
MIL

MIL★

Brewers

17-14

vs58%MIL

WSH

Nationals

15-18

WSH
MIL 58%win prob42% WSH
MIL 1536 · WSH 1457Box score→
The One modelLean
Sat, May 2
TOR

TOR★

Blue Jays

15-17

vs57%TOR

MIN

Twins

14-19

MIN
TOR 57%win prob43% MIN
TOR 1523 · MIN 1451Box score→
The One modelLean
Final
TOR7

TOR★

Blue Jays

15-17

vs57%TOR

MIN

Twins

14-19

MIN3
TOR 57%win prob43% MIN
TOR 1523 · MIN 1451✓ model right
The One modelLean
Final
LAD2

LAD★

Dodgers

20-12

vs56%LAD

STL

Cardinals

19-13

STL7
LAD 56%win prob44% STL
LAD 1569 · STL 1504✗ model wrong
The One modelLean
Sat, May 2
LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

20-12

vs56%LAD

STL

Cardinals

19-13

STL
LAD 56%win prob44% STL
LAD 1569 · STL 1504Box score→
The One modelTossup
Final
CLE8

CLE

Guardians

17-16

vs54%ATH

ATH★

Athletics

17-15

ATH5
CLE 46%win prob54% ATH
ATH 1516 · CLE 1515✗ model wrong
The One modelTossup
Sat, May 2
PHI

PHI

Phillies

13-19

vs53%MIA

MIA★

Marlins

15-17

MIA
PHI 47%win prob53% MIA
MIA 1493 · PHI 1500Box score→
The One modelTossup
Final
NYM4

NYM

Mets

11-21

vs52%LAA

LAA★

Angels

12-21

LAA3
NYM 48%win prob52% LAA
LAA 1438 · NYM 1447✗ model wrong
The One modelTossup
Sat, May 2
CLE

CLE

Guardians

17-16

vs52%ATH

ATH★

Athletics

17-15

ATH
CLE 48%win prob52% ATH
ATH 1511 · CLE 1520Box score→
The One modelTossup
Sat, May 2
TEX

TEX

Rangers

16-16

vs52%DET

DET★

Tigers

16-17

DET
TEX 48%win prob52% DET
DET 1498 · TEX 1510Box score→
The One modelTossup
Sat, May 2
CIN

CIN

Reds

20-12

vs50%PIT

PIT★

Pirates

17-16

PIT
CIN 50%win prob50% PIT
PIT 1495 · CIN 1517Box score→

Power ratings · Elo

Best + worst teams in baseball

Top 5

  1. 1NYY

    Yankees

    21-11

    1571Elo
  2. 2LAD

    Dodgers

    20-12

    1569Elo
  3. 3CHC

    Cubs

    20-12

    1554Elo
  4. 4ATL

    Braves

    23-10

    1548Elo
  5. 5MIL

    Brewers

    17-14

    1536Elo

Bottom 5

  1. 1COL

    Rockies

    14-19

    1419Elo
  2. 2LAA

    Angels

    12-21

    1438Elo
  3. 3NYM

    Mets

    11-21

    1447Elo
  4. 4MIN

    Twins

    14-19

    1451Elo
  5. 5WSH

    Nationals

    15-18

    1457Elo

How the model works

One Elo rating per team, updated after every game

K-factor 8 with a margin-of-victory bump capped at 1.5×. Home advantage is +24 rating points. Off-season carry regresses 25% to the league mean. No starting-pitcher adjustment, no park factor — yet. The plain rating still beats every consumer-site Elo we've checked at 55% raw hit rate.

See the backtest →