HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBG. Williams (CLE): 5.2 IP · 10 K in a win over ARI
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Freeland (COL): 9.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER in a win over KC
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Transferred LHP PJ Poulin from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL (Aug 2)
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Liberatore (STL): 6.0 IP · 7 K in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Burns (CIN): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Sent LHP Marco Gonzales outright to Round Rock (PCL) (Aug 2)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. Mitchell (IND): 37 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST against MIN
LAST NIGHT · WNBAO. Miles (MIN): 28 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST in a win over IND
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Claimed 1B Buddy Kennedy off waivers from Seattle (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · WNBAMercury: Acquired G Kelsey Plum from Los Angeles in exchange for G Monique Akoa Makani (A…
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Signed G Eliska Joklova to a rest-of-season hardship contract (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · NFLCowboys: Signed T Sebastian Gutierrez (Aug 2)
TONIGHT · WNBASEA @ NY, 8/3 - 7:00 PM EDT — NY -7.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBG. Williams (CLE): 5.2 IP · 10 K in a win over ARI
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Freeland (COL): 9.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER in a win over KC
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Transferred LHP PJ Poulin from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL (Aug 2)
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Liberatore (STL): 6.0 IP · 7 K in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Burns (CIN): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Sent LHP Marco Gonzales outright to Round Rock (PCL) (Aug 2)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. Mitchell (IND): 37 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST against MIN
LAST NIGHT · WNBAO. Miles (MIN): 28 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST in a win over IND
TRANSACTION · MLBGiants: Claimed 1B Buddy Kennedy off waivers from Seattle (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · WNBAMercury: Acquired G Kelsey Plum from Los Angeles in exchange for G Monique Akoa Makani (A…
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Signed G Eliska Joklova to a rest-of-season hardship contract (Aug 2)
TRANSACTION · NFLCowboys: Signed T Sebastian Gutierrez (Aug 2)
TONIGHT · WNBASEA @ NY, 8/3 - 7:00 PM EDT — NY -7.5
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Toronto Blue Jays
TOR#12 · American League

Toronto Blue Jays

52-60 (46.4%) · L1 · L10 6-4

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#25 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .443 · exp 49.7-62.3 vs act 52-60 · n=112 · luck +2.3W · thru 2026-08-02 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-28 → 2026-08-02 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 2 at WSH, 6-8, 2026-07-28. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 3 at WSH, 5-2, 2026-07-29. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 2 vs STL, 3-1, 2026-07-31. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 4 vs STL, 5-1, 2026-08-01. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 4 vs STL, 1-5, 2026-08-02. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Kazuma Okamoto109 G.751
  2. 2George Springer81 G.731
  3. 3Ernie Clement109 G.729
  4. 4Vladimir Guerrero Jr.106 G.697
  5. 5Daulton Varsho99 G.682

Home runs

  1. 1Kazuma Okamoto109 G24
  2. 2George Springer81 G12
  3. 3Ernie Clement109 G8
  4. 4Daulton Varsho99 G7
  5. 5Andrés Giménez106 G7

RBI

  1. 1Kazuma Okamoto109 G69
  2. 2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.106 G44
  3. 3Andrés Giménez106 G41
  4. 4George Springer81 G36
  5. 5Ernie Clement109 G35

Batting average

  1. 1Ernie Clement109 G.289
  2. 2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.106 G.264
  3. 3Daulton Varsho99 G.243
  4. 4George Springer81 G.239
  5. 5Andrés Giménez106 G.232

Stolen bases

  1. 1Andrés Giménez106 G13
  2. 2Daulton Varsho99 G9
  3. 3Vladimir Guerrero Jr.106 G7
  4. 4George Springer81 G7
  5. 5Ernie Clement109 G4

ERA

  1. 1Dylan Cease119.3 IP2.41
  2. 2Kevin Gausman127.3 IP4.38

WHIP

  1. 1Dylan Cease119.3 IP1.08
  2. 2Kevin Gausman127.3 IP1.29

Strikeouts

  1. 1Dylan Cease119.3 IP174
  2. 2Kevin Gausman127.3 IP127

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.243vs .244League avg

OBP

.304vs .318Slight gap

SLG

.378vs .401Below avg

OPS

.682vs .719Below avg

HR

107

R / G

3.9

K / G

7.2

Pitching

ERA

4.07vs 4.18Slight edge

FIP (approx)

3.94vs 4.19Above avg

WHIP

1.31vs 1.30League avg

K / 9

9.0vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

3.6vs 3.4Below avg

BAA

.241

HR / 9

1.1

GP

112

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.17 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.501st2nd · 0.00 for / 0.17 against · margin -0.172nd3rd · 0.83 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.423rd4th · 0.25 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.424th5th · 0.08 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.425th6th · 0.33 for / 0.42 against · margin -0.086th7th · 0.75 for / 0.25 against · margin +0.507th8th · 0.83 for / 0.25 against · margin +0.58PEAK8th9th · 0.17 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.509thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

3.4 avg / 4.0 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

3.40

Blowout wins (4+)

5

Shutout games

4

Form last 30

13-17

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 3.4 runs

1345AVG 3.44051523344352678291011RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-06-27 → 2026-08-02

Record

13-17

Win pct

43.3%

Avg margin

-1.0

Longest W

3

Longest L

4

Upset wins

13

2026-06-27 · vs TEX · L 4-7 · model gave 36%TEX2026-06-28 · vs TEX · L 2-3 · model gave 37%TEX2026-06-29 · vs NYM · W 2-1 · model gave 48%NYM2026-06-30 · vs NYM · L 0-3 · model gave 49%NYM2026-07-01 · vs NYM · W 9-3 · model gave 48%NYM2026-07-03 · @ SEA · W 2-0 · model gave 35%SEA2026-07-04 · @ SEA · L 0-11 · model gave 35%SEA2026-07-05 · @ SEA · L 0-4 · model gave 34%SEA2026-07-06 · @ SF · L 1-10 · model gave 36%SF2026-07-07 · @ SF · W 9-3 · model gave 38%SF2026-07-08 · @ SF · W 10-0 · model gave 40%SF2026-07-10 · @ SD · W 5-3 · model gave 37%SD2026-07-11 · @ SD · L 7-8 · model gave 37%SD2026-07-12 · @ SD · L 4-5 · model gave 37%SD2026-07-17 · vs CHW · L 4-12 · model gave 37%CHW2026-07-18 · vs CHW · W 1-0 · model gave 38%CHW2026-07-19 · vs CHW · L 0-3 · model gave 37%CHW2026-07-20 · vs TB · L 1-7 · model gave 31%TB2026-07-21 · vs TB · L 2-12 · model gave 30%TB2026-07-22 · vs TB · L 2-4 · model gave 30%TB2026-07-23 · vs TB · W 3-1 · model gave 30%TB2026-07-24 · @ BOS · L 4-6 · model gave 28%BOS2026-07-25 · @ BOS · W 6-0 · model gave 27%BOS2026-07-26 · @ BOS · L 1-6 · model gave 29%BOS2026-07-27 · @ WSH · W 3-2 · model gave 37%WSH2026-07-28 · @ WSH · L 6-8 · model gave 38%WSH2026-07-29 · @ WSH · W 5-2 · model gave 39%WSH2026-07-31 · vs STL · W 3-1 · model gave 45%STL2026-08-01 · vs STL · W 5-1 · model gave 45%STL2026-08-02 · vs STL · L 1-5 · model gave 45%STL

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

180 games · 2025-08-03 → 2026-08-02

Peak 1579 · Now 1429 · Trough 1406

Next 5 games

The road ahead

@HOUpwr 78
@HOUpwr 78
@HOUpwr 78
@CHCpwr 58
@PHIpwr —

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

5 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Reinstated C Alejandro Kirk from the 60-day IL. Recalled UTL Davis Schneider from Buffalo (IL). Placed OF Daulton Varsho on the 10-day IL retroactive to June 10. Designated C Tyler Heineman for assignment. Assigned RHP Yariel Rodriguez to Buffalo.

  2. Jun 10

    Sent RHP Yimi García on a rehab assignment to Buffalo (IL). Designated RHP Connor Seabold for assignment. Reinstated RHP Max Scherzer from the 15-day IL.

  3. Jun 9

    Optioned LHP Adam Macko to Buffalo (IL). Reinstated RHP Dylan Cease from the 15-day IL. Sent C Alejandro Kirk on a rehab assignment to Buffalo (IL). Sent RHP Tanner Andrews outright to Buffalo.

  4. Jun 8

    Reinstated RHP Tommy Nance from the 15-day IL. Designated RHP Yariel Rodríguez for assignment.

  5. Jun 7

    Sent RHP Tanner Andrews outright to Buffalo (IL).

Source · ESPN

Position players · 25

Hitters & fielders

Alejandro Kirk

A. Kirk

C · #30

Andres Gimenez

A. Gimenez

SS · #0

Brandon Valenzuela

B. Valenzuela

C · #59

Braydon Fisher

B. Fisher

RP · #63

Brendon Little

B. Little

RP · #54

C

C. Dallas

RP · #37

Daulton Varsho

D. Varsho

CF · #5

Davis Schneider

D. Schneider

LF · #36

Dylan Cease

D. Cease

SP · #84

Ernie Clement

E. Clement

2B · #22

George Springer

G. Springer

DH · #4

Jeff Hoffman

J. Hoffman

RP · #23

Jesus Sanchez

J. Sanchez

RF · #12

Kazuma Okamoto

K. Okamoto

3B · #7

Louis Varland

L. Varland

RP · #77

Luis Urias

L. Urias

2B · #48

Mason Fluharty

M. Fluharty

RP · #68

Max Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP · #31

Myles Straw

M. Straw

RF · #3

Nathan Lukes

N. Lukes

RF · #38

Shane Bieber

S. Bieber

SP · #57

Spencer Miles

S. Miles

RP · #62

Trey Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP · #39

Tyler Rogers

T. Rogers

RP · #71

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B · #27

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 64-41
60%Last 30 · 252-168
Receipts →

Model picks on TOR

19-13 graded · 59.4% (95% CI 42.3-74.5) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-27

All MLB · 698-590 graded

Tonight's graded board →