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TOR#8 · American League

Toronto Blue Jays

34-38 (47.2%) · L2 · L10 5-5

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#20 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .467 · exp 33.6-38.4 vs act 34-38 · n=72 · luck +0.4W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-09 → 2026-06-14 · Full ATS profile →

Model picks on TOR

18-12 graded · 60.0% (95% CI 42.3-75.4) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-27

All MLB · 594-464 graded

Tonight's graded board →

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

1Ernie Clement71 G.784
2Kazuma Okamoto70 G.761
3Daulton Varsho64 G.739
4Vladimir Guerrero Jr.68 G.738
5Andrés Giménez68 G.620

Home runs

1Kazuma Okamoto70 G15
2Ernie Clement71 G7
3Andrés Giménez68 G6
4Daulton Varsho64 G5
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr.68 G3

RBI

1Kazuma Okamoto70 G42
2Andrés Giménez68 G30
3Ernie Clement71 G28
4Vladimir Guerrero Jr.68 G27
5Daulton Varsho64 G17

Batting average

1Ernie Clement71 G.304
2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.68 G.280
3Daulton Varsho64 G.256
4Kazuma Okamoto70 G.235
5Andrés Giménez68 G.222

Stolen bases

1Andrés Giménez68 G7
2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.68 G5
3Daulton Varsho64 G5
4Ernie Clement71 G2
5Kazuma Okamoto70 G0

ERA

1Kevin Gausman87.0 IP3.41

WHIP

1Kevin Gausman87.0 IP1.03

Strikeouts

1Kevin Gausman87.0 IP86

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.250vs .243Slight edge

OBP

.315vs .319League avg

SLG

.388vs .398Slight gap

OPS

.703vs .717Slight gap

R / G

4.1

K / G

7.3

Pitching

ERA

4.12vs 4.18League avg

FIP (approx)

3.86vs 4.18Above avg

WHIP

1.27vs 1.31Slight edge

K / 9

9.1vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

3.3vs 3.5Above avg

BAA

.241

HR / 9

1.1

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

ForAgainst

4.1 avg / 5.3 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Avg runs / game

3.93

Blowout wins (4+)

Shutout games

Form last 30

16-14

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 3.9 runs

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

181 games · 2025-06-17 → 2026-06-14

Peak 1579 · Now 1459 · Trough 1459

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

5 moves

Jun 12
Reinstated C Alejandro Kirk from the 60-day IL. Recalled UTL Davis Schneider from Buffalo (IL). Placed OF Daulton Varsho on the 10-day IL retroactive to June 10. Designated C Tyler Heineman for assignment. Assigned RHP Yariel Rodriguez to Buffalo.
Jun 10
Sent RHP Yimi García on a rehab assignment to Buffalo (IL). Designated RHP Connor Seabold for assignment. Reinstated RHP Max Scherzer from the 15-day IL.
Jun 9
Optioned LHP Adam Macko to Buffalo (IL). Reinstated RHP Dylan Cease from the 15-day IL. Sent C Alejandro Kirk on a rehab assignment to Buffalo (IL). Sent RHP Tanner Andrews outright to Buffalo.
Jun 8
Reinstated RHP Tommy Nance from the 15-day IL. Designated RHP Yariel Rodríguez for assignment.
Jun 7
Sent RHP Tanner Andrews outright to Buffalo (IL).

Source · ESPN