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TOR#6 · American League

Toronto Blue Jays

36-38 (48.6%) · W2 · L10 6-4

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#18 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .479 · exp 35.5-38.5 vs act 36-38 · n=74 · luck +0.5W · thru 2026-06-17 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-12 → 2026-06-17 · Full ATS profile →

Model picks on TOR

18-12 graded · 60.0% (95% CI 42.3-75.4) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-27

All MLB · 605-483 graded

Tonight's graded board →

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

1Ernie Clement73 G.760
2Kazuma Okamoto72 G.749
3Daulton Varsho64 G.739
4Vladimir Guerrero Jr.70 G.730
5George Springer52 G.677

Home runs

1Kazuma Okamoto72 G15
2Ernie Clement73 G7
3Andrés Giménez70 G7
4George Springer52 G7
5Daulton Varsho64 G5

RBI

Batting average

1Ernie Clement73 G.295
2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.70 G.280
3Daulton Varsho64 G.256
4Andrés Giménez70 G.232
5Kazuma Okamoto72 G.230

Stolen bases

1Andrés Giménez70 G10
2George Springer52 G6
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr.70 G5
4Daulton Varsho64 G5
5Ernie Clement73 G2

ERA

1Kevin Gausman87.0 IP3.41

WHIP

1Kevin Gausman87.0 IP1.03

Strikeouts

1Kevin Gausman87.0 IP86

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.249vs .243Slight edge

OBP

.313vs .319Slight gap

SLG

.389vs .398Slight gap

OPS

.702vs .718Slight gap

R / G

4.1

K / G

7.3

Pitching

ERA

4.02vs 4.18Slight edge

FIP (approx)

3.86vs 4.19Above avg

WHIP

1.28vs 1.31Slight edge

K / 9

9.1vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

3.4vs 3.5Slight edge

BAA

.240

HR / 9

1.1

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

ForAgainst

4.3 avg / 4.5 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Avg runs / game

4.00

Blowout wins (4+)

Shutout games

Form last 30

17-13

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.0 runs

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

182 games · 2025-06-18 → 2026-06-17

Peak 1579 · Now 1474 · Trough 1459

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

5 moves

Jun 12
Reinstated C Alejandro Kirk from the 60-day IL. Recalled UTL Davis Schneider from Buffalo (IL). Placed OF Daulton Varsho on the 10-day IL retroactive to June 10. Designated C Tyler Heineman for assignment. Assigned RHP Yariel Rodriguez to Buffalo.
Jun 10
Sent RHP Yimi García on a rehab assignment to Buffalo (IL). Designated RHP Connor Seabold for assignment. Reinstated RHP Max Scherzer from the 15-day IL.
Jun 9
Optioned LHP Adam Macko to Buffalo (IL). Reinstated RHP Dylan Cease from the 15-day IL. Sent C Alejandro Kirk on a rehab assignment to Buffalo (IL). Sent RHP Tanner Andrews outright to Buffalo.
Jun 8
Reinstated RHP Tommy Nance from the 15-day IL. Designated RHP Yariel Rodríguez for assignment.
Jun 7
Sent RHP Tanner Andrews outright to Buffalo (IL).

Source · ESPN