
48-66 (42.1%) · L1 · L10 4-6
Model verdict
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#23 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .455 · exp 51.8-62.2 vs act 48-66 · n=114 · luck -3.8W · thru 2026-08-04 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-07-31 → 2026-08-04 · Full ATS profile →
Stat leaders
OPS
Home runs
RBI
Batting average
Stolen bases
ERA
WHIP
Strikeouts
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
HR
129
R / G
4.2
K / G
7.8
Pitching
ERA
FIP (approx)
WHIP
K / 9
BB / 9
BAA
.248
HR / 9
1.0
GP
114
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
5.1 avg / 4.0 allowed
Plate signature
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
4.60
Blowout wins (4+)
6
Shutout games
2
Form last 30
13-17
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 4.6 runs
Form heatmap
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-06-30 → 2026-08-04
Record
13-17
Win pct
43.3%
Avg margin
+0.0
Longest W
3
Longest L
5
Upset wins
6
Favorite losses
7
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
163 games · 2025-08-05 → 2026-08-04
Peak 1524 · Now 1467 · Trough 1452
Next 5 games
Recent transactions
Recalled RHP Ryan Walker from Sacramento (PCL).
Optioned RHP Carson Seymour to Sacramento (PCL).
Designated LF Will Brennan for assignment. Reinstated LHP Reiver Sanmartin from the 60-day IL. Optioned RHP Tristan Beck to Sacramento (PCL).
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26

A. Houser
SP · #12

B. Tidwell
RP · #46

B. Eldridge
DH · #8

B. Kennedy
1B · #41

C. Seymour
RP · #77

C. Whisenhunt
SP · #88

C. Koss
2B · #50

D. Susac
C · #6
D. Cavanaugh
C · #61

D. Gilbert
CF · #0

D. Smith
RP · #66

E. Leonard
SS · #49

G. McCray
CF · #58

J. Foley
RP · #64

J. Brubaker
RP · #34

J. Lee
RF · #51

K. Winn
RP · #67

L. Roupp
SP · #65

L. Webb
SP · #62

N. Furman
2B · #56

O. Basabe
SS · #39

R. Devers
1B · #16

R. Sanmartin
RP · #48

S. Hentges
RP · #31

T. Beck
RP · #43

W. Adames
SS · #2
Model picks on SF
14-16 graded · 46.7% (95% CI 30.2-63.9) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-04-03
All MLB · 698-590 graded