Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 23, 2026

FINAL+4ARI

ARI

54-49

106

STL

52-50

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

32,381 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

53.2%

open 54.2% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
54.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.5%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+44.2pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +44.2pp · implied 0.0%

STL

no live price

Book	ARI	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	—★	-126	+44.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 2.9high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.7± 2.1high
Kyle LeahySTL
4.5± 2.4high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.3± 1.2high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.8high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Gabriel MorenoARI
2.0± 1.6high
James McCannARI
2.0± 2.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Gabriel MorenoARI
0.9± 0.9high
James McCannARI
0.8± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.0± 2.7medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Mitch BrattARI
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

STL

.704

OPS

◀

.720

.691

.313

OBP

.318

.314

4.51

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

4.17

Team ERA

4.18

4.16

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

6.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 10 · STL 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	5	1	10
STL	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.251	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.236	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
G. MorenoC	.309	4	1	3	2	0	0	0
M. KeplerLF	.218	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.208	5	3	3	1	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.220	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
I. Vargas1B	.270	5	1	3	0	0	0	0
T. Locklear1B	.385	5	2	3	3	1	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.250	2	0	2	2	0	0	0
Team		38	10	16	10	1	5	6

Player

.251

.236

.309

.218

.208

.220

.270

.385

.254

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. PfaadtRP	6.0	7	2	2	2	1	87
B. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	5	4	4	0	0	29
Team	9.0	13	6	6	2	2	133

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.259	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
J. WalkerRF	.291	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.284	5	1	3	0	0	0	0
L. NootbaarLF	.254	5	0	2	3	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.237	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. FerminLF	.257	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
N. ChurchCF	.229	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.178	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.214	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.219	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. PagesC	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	6	13	6	0	2	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	6.1	7	4	4	3	3	95
J. BruihlRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	15
M. SvansonRP	0.2	4	3	3	2	0	37
G. GraceffoRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	30
Team	9.0	16	10	10	5	6	177

Team

ARI

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.