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LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Bradish (BAL): 7.2 IP · 12 K · 1 ER in a win over SEA — Standout Index 94
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Stowers (MIA): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PHI — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. McLean (NYM): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. Ray (SF): 6.1 IP · 8 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Citron (WSH): 26 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ IND, 6/18 - 7:30 PM EDT — IND -1.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Bradish (BAL): 7.2 IP · 12 K · 1 ER in a win over SEA — Standout Index 94
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Stowers (MIA): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PHI — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. McLean (NYM): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. Ray (SF): 6.1 IP · 8 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Citron (WSH): 26 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ IND, 6/18 - 7:30 PM EDT — IND -1.5
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Cincinnati Reds
CIN#12 · National League

Cincinnati Reds

35-38 (47.9%) · L1 · L10 4-6

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#28 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .430 · exp 31.4-41.6 vs act 35-38 · n=73 · luck +3.6W · thru 2026-06-17 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-13 → 2026-06-17 · Full ATS profile →

WWon by 1 vs ARI, 2-1, 2026-06-13. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 2 vs ARI, 3-5, 2026-06-14. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 12 vs NYM, 12-0, 2026-06-15. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 2 vs NYM, 5-3, 2026-06-16. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 8 vs NYM, 1-9, 2026-06-17. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Elly De La Cruz58 G.855
  2. 2Sal Stewart73 G.805
  3. 3Spencer Steer71 G.759
  4. 4Matt McLain70 G.677

Home runs

  1. 1Sal Stewart73 G14
  2. 2Elly De La Cruz58 G12
  3. 3Spencer Steer71 G11
  4. 4Matt McLain70 G8

RBI

  1. 1Sal Stewart73 G47
  2. 2Elly De La Cruz58 G37
  3. 3Spencer Steer71 G28
  4. 4Matt McLain70 G25

Batting average

  1. 1Elly De La Cruz58 G.280
  2. 2Sal Stewart73 G.252
  3. 3Spencer Steer71 G.245
  4. 4Matt McLain70 G.207

Stolen bases

  1. 1Sal Stewart73 G11
  2. 2Matt McLain70 G11
  3. 3Elly De La Cruz58 G10
  4. 4Spencer Steer71 G3

ERA

  1. 1Chase Burns80.7 IP2.01
  2. 2Andrew Abbott79.7 IP3.95

WHIP

  1. 1Chase Burns80.7 IP1.02
  2. 2Andrew Abbott79.7 IP1.41

Strikeouts

  1. 1Chase Burns80.7 IP95
  2. 2Andrew Abbott79.7 IP58

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.228vs .243Below avg

OBP

.312vs .319Slight gap

SLG

.395vs .398League avg

OPS

.707vs .718League avg

HR

94

R / G

4.3

K / G

9.3

Pitching

ERA

4.65vs 4.18Below avg

FIP (approx)

5.02vs 4.19Below avg

WHIP

1.47vs 1.31Below avg

K / 9

7.9vs 8.5Below avg

BB / 9

4.6vs 3.5Below avg

BAA

.251

HR / 9

1.4

GP

73

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.92 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.58PEAK1st2nd · 0.67 for / 0.25 against · margin +0.422nd3rd · 0.83 for / 0.83 against · margin +0.003rd4th · 0.33 for / 0.00 against · margin +0.334th5th · 0.17 for / 0.83 against · margin -0.675th6th · 0.17 for / 0.92 against · margin -0.756th7th · 0.17 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.007th8th · 0.42 for / 1.00 against · margin -0.588th9th · 0.00 for / 0.42 against · margin -0.429thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

3.7 avg / 4.8 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

4.53

Blowout wins (4+)

5

Shutout games

0

Form last 30

13-17

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.5 runs

2457AVG 4.501725354356478910111213RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-05-14 → 2026-06-17

Record

13-17

Win pct

43.3%

Avg margin

-0.4

Longest W

3

Longest L

5

Upset wins

7

Favorite losses

5

2026-05-14 · vs WSH · W 15-1 · model gave 56%WSH2026-05-15 · @ CLE · W 7-6 · model gave 44%CLE2026-05-16 · @ CLE · L 4-7 · model gave 44%CLE2026-05-17 · @ CLE · L 3-10 · model gave 47%CLE2026-05-18 · @ PHI · L 4-5 · model gave 46%PHI2026-05-19 · @ PHI · W 4-1 · model gave 47%PHI2026-05-20 · @ PHI · W 9-4 · model gave 47%PHI2026-05-23 · vs STL · W 7-6 · model gave 55%STL2026-05-23 · vs STL · L 1-8 · model gave 55%STL2026-05-25 · @ NYM · W 7-2 · model gave 55%NYM2026-05-26 · @ NYM · W 7-2 · model gave 55%NYM2026-05-27 · @ NYM · L 2-4 · model gave 52%NYM2026-05-29 · vs ATL · L 3-8 · model gave 44%ATL2026-05-30 · vs ATL · L 2-5 · model gave 43%ATL2026-05-31 · vs ATL · W 6-4 · model gave 41%ATL2026-06-01 · vs KC · L 2-9 · model gave 59%KC2026-06-02 · vs KC · W 4-3 · model gave 58%KC2026-06-03 · vs KC · L 2-5 · model gave 56%KC2026-06-05 · @ STL · L 3-10 · model gave 41%STL2026-06-06 · @ STL · L 5-6 · model gave 40%STL2026-06-07 · @ STL · L 3-5 · model gave 39%STL2026-06-08 · @ SD · L 2-6 · model gave 42%SD2026-06-09 · @ SD · W 5-3 · model gave 42%SD2026-06-10 · @ SD · L 4-5 · model gave 42%SD2026-06-12 · vs ARI · L 2-5 · model gave 52%ARI2026-06-13 · vs ARI · W 2-1 · model gave 52%ARI2026-06-14 · vs ARI · L 3-5 · model gave 50%ARI2026-06-15 · vs NYM · W 12-0 · model gave 49%NYM2026-06-16 · vs NYM · W 5-3 · model gave 49%NYM2026-06-17 · vs NYM · L 1-9 · model gave 49%NYM

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

164 games · 2025-06-18 → 2026-06-17

Peak 1529 · Now 1463 · Trough 1463

Next 5 games

The road ahead

@NYYpwr 68
@NYYpwr 68
@NYYpwr 68
vsMILpwr 63
vsMILpwr 63

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

2 moves
  1. Jun 10

    Recalled RHP Chase Petty from Louisville (IL). Optioned RHP Zach McCambley to Louisville.

  2. Jun 7

    Reinstated RHP Rhett Lowder from the 15-day IL. Optioned RHP Luis Mey to Louisville (IL).

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Andrew Abbott

A. Abbott

SP · #41

Blake Dunn

B. Dunn

RF · #59

Brady Singer

B. Singer

SP · #51

Brock Burke

B. Burke

RP · #49

Caleb Ferguson

C. Ferguson

RP · #46

Chase Burns

C. Burns

SP · #26

Chase Petty

C. Petty

SP · #61

Chris Paddack

C. Paddack

SP · #56

Dane Myers

D. Myers

CF · #17

Edwin Arroyo

E. Arroyo

2B · #2

Eugenio Suarez

E. Suarez

DH · #28

JJ Bleday

J. Bleday

LF · #22

Jose Trevino

J. Trevino

C · #35

Matt McLain

M. McLain

2B · #9

Nathaniel Lowe

N. Lowe

DH · #31

Nick Lodolo

N. Lodolo

SP · #40

Noelvi Marte

N. Marte

RF · #4

Rhett Lowder

R. Lowder

SP · #25

Sal Stewart

S. Stewart

1B · #27

Sam Moll

S. Moll

RP · #50

Spencer Steer

S. Steer

LF · #7

Tejay Antone

T. Antone

RP · #70

Tony Santillan

T. Santillan

RP · #64

Tyler Stephenson

T. Stephenson

C · #37

Will Benson

W. Benson

RF · #30

Zach Maxwell

Z. Maxwell

RP · #78

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 63-40
61%Last 30 · 296-193
Receipts →

Model picks on CIN

25-20 graded · 55.6% (95% CI 41.2-69.1) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-30

All MLB · 605-483 graded

Tonight's graded board →