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CIN#12 · National League
Cincinnati Reds
52-58 (47.3%) · L1 · L10 6-4
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#26 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .434 · exp 47.7-62.3 vs act 52-58 · n=110 · luck +4.3W · thru 2026-08-01 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-07-28 → 2026-08-01 · Full ATS profile →
Lost by 1 vs CLE, 5-6, 2026-07-28. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Lost by 5 vs CLE, 1-6, 2026-07-29. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Won by 1 vs PIT, 3-2, 2026-07-30. Covered the spread (closing line).
Won by 1 vs PIT, 8-7, 2026-07-31. Covered the spread (closing line).
Lost by 3 vs PIT, 1-4, 2026-08-01. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Stat leaders
Who carries them
OPS
- 1Elly De La Cruz91 G.858
- 2Sal Stewart110 G.810
- 3JJ Bleday82 G.803
- 4Spencer Steer98 G.740
Home runs
- 1Sal Stewart110 G23
- 2JJ Bleday82 G19
- 3Elly De La Cruz91 G18
- 4Spencer Steer98 G16
RBI
- 1Sal Stewart110 G84
- 2Elly De La Cruz91 G48
- 3JJ Bleday82 G46
- 4Spencer Steer98 G40
Batting average
- 1Elly De La Cruz91 G.276
- 2Sal Stewart110 G.254
- 3Spencer Steer98 G.238
- 4JJ Bleday82 G.226
Stolen bases
- 1Elly De La Cruz91 G20
- 2Sal Stewart110 G12
- 3JJ Bleday82 G6
- 4Spencer Steer98 G3
ERA
- 1Chase Burns112.7 IP2.40
- 2Andrew Abbott122.0 IP3.91
WHIP
- 1Chase Burns112.7 IP1.12
- 2Andrew Abbott122.0 IP1.39
Strikeouts
- 1Chase Burns112.7 IP128
- 2Andrew Abbott122.0 IP95
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
Hitting + pitching vs league
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
.230vs .244Below avg
OBP
.309vs .318Slight gap
SLG
.396vs .402League avg
OPS
.705vs .720Slight gap
HR
142
R / G
4.1
K / G
9.5
Pitching
ERA
4.43vs 4.18Below avg
FIP (approx)
4.79vs 4.19Below avg
WHIP
1.42vs 1.31Below avg
K / 9
8.1vs 8.5Below avg
BB / 9
4.3vs 3.4Below avg
BAA
.246
HR / 9
1.3
GP
110
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
When they score
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
ForAgainst
2.9 avg / 4.1 allowed
Plate signature
The strike zone
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
3.83
Blowout wins (4+)
4
Shutout games
4
Form last 30
14-16
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
How they score
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 3.8 runs
Form heatmap
The margin trail
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-06-27 → 2026-08-01
Record
14-16
Win pct
46.7%
Avg margin
-0.8
Longest W
3
Longest L
4
Upset wins
11
Favorite losses
3
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
The Elo timeline
163 games · 2025-08-02 → 2026-08-01
Peak 1529 · Now 1459 · Trough 1439
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 10
Recalled RHP Chase Petty from Louisville (IL). Optioned RHP Zach McCambley to Louisville.
- Jun 7
Reinstated RHP Rhett Lowder from the 15-day IL. Optioned RHP Luis Mey to Louisville (IL).
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26
Hitters & fielders
A. Abbott
SP · #41
B. Singer
SP · #51
B. Burke
RP · #49
C. Ferguson
RP · #46
C. Burns
SP · #26
D. Myers
CF · #17
E. De La Cruz
SS · #44
E. Pagan
RP · #15
E. Suarez
DH · #28
H. Greene
SP · #21
I. Johnson
2B · #63
J. Bleday
LF · #22
J. Trevino
C · #35
J
J. Garcia
RP · #57
K. Hayes
3B · #3
M. McLain
2B · #9
N. Lowe
DH · #31
N. Marte
RF · #4
P. Johnson
RP · #52
R. Lowder
SP · #25
S. Stewart
1B · #27
S. Moll
RP · #50
T. Antone
RP · #70
T. Friedl
CF · #29
T. Stephenson
C · #37
Z. McCambley
RP · #62