Recent form
8-2
HOU +1.7 vs TOR +0.2 margin
HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
TOR
TOR
53-61
PregameWed, 2:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
HOU
HOU
59-56
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Line movement
200 snapshots
HOU spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 7.5 · +0.5
HOU no-vig %
61.5%
open 52.2% · +9.3
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jameson Taillon
SP · #56
2-6
W-L
5.92
ERA
1.36
WHIP
68
K
76.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@PITL(2-6)4.0 IP7 ER3 K
vsDET-4.1 IP4 ER6 K
vsSF-1.0 IP1 ER2 K
Home starter
Hunter Brown
SP · #58
3-1
W-L
3.42
ERA
1.29
WHIP
55
K
52.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTEXW(3-1)5.2 IP2 ER5 K
@CHWW(2-1)7.0 IP0 ER7 K
vsBALL(1-1)4.2 IP4 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money+159 / -169
Model edge
Win prob31% / 69%
LeanHome · 19pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take HOU on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs TOR.
HOU is 8-2 recently; TOR is 6-4.
68.6%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU8–2+1.7
- TOR6–4+0.2
Situational
- HOU1d restB2B
- TOR1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; TOR has 2.
Model angle
+6.7ppon HOU
HOU's edge is mostly line steam plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
- ▲Line steam+2.3pp
- ▲Model confidence+1.9pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.5strikeouts · ±2.7
Dylan Cease · 8.5 K · last-10 8.5 vs season 8.4.
- Jose SorianoTOR5.2strikeouts · ±2.6
Jose Soriano · 5.2 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 5.8.
- Jeremy PenaHOU2.8total bases · ±2.4
Jeremy Pena · 2.8 TB · last-10 3.3 vs season 2.1.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
HOU is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-03TOR @ HOU3–1
- 2026-08-04TOR @ HOU2–7
Line move
open -120→-180toward HOU
The market has moved 9.7pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
69.8%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
69.2%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
72.2%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.3%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.23 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.5± 2.7high
- Peter LambertHOU5.9± 2.3medium
- Hunter BrownHOU5.5± 2.8low
Hits
- Jeremy PenaHOU1.5± 1.0high
- Yainer DiazHOU1.2± 1.6high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.2± 1.2high
Total bases
- Jeremy PenaHOU2.8± 2.4high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU2.1± 2.3high
- George SpringerTOR2.0± 1.5high
RBIs
- Jeremy PenaHOU0.8± 1.1high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU0.7± 0.9high
- George SpringerTOR0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Ronel BlancoHOU4.0± 1.4low
- Jameson TaillonTOR3.5± 2.7medium
- Max ScherzerTOR3.4± 3.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
HOU
.680
OPS
.720
▶.738
.303
OBP
.318
▶.322
3.89
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.66
4.07
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.61
1.32
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.36
9.0
K / 9
8.5
8.9
The One model★ Lock
Wed, Aug 5TOR
Blue Jays
57-90
vs68.6%HOU
HOU★
Astros
77-65
TOR 31.4%win prob68.6% HOU
HOU 1548 · TOR 1432Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- DodgersCubs8/5 - 2:20 PM EDT
- GiantsRangers8/5 - 2:35 PM EDT
- RaysRockies8/5 - 3:10 PM EDT
- AngelsOrioles8/5 - 6:35 PM EDT
- AthleticsReds8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MetsGuardians8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- NationalsPhillies8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsYankees8/5 - 7:05 PM EDT
- White SoxRed Sox8/5 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsBraves8/5 - 7:15 PM EDT
- PiratesBrewers8/5 - 7:30 PM EDT
- TwinsRoyals8/5 - 7:40 PM EDT
- TigersMariners8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PadresDiamondbacks8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
