
54-55 (49.5%) · L1 · L10 3-7
Model verdict
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#15 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .487 · exp 53.1-55.9 vs act 54-55 · n=109 · luck +0.9W · thru 2026-07-31 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-07-26 → 2026-07-30 · Full ATS profile →
Stat leaders
OPS
Home runs
RBI
Batting average
Stolen bases
ERA
WHIP
Strikeouts
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
HR
113
R / G
4.3
K / G
7.7
Pitching
ERA
FIP (approx)
WHIP
K / 9
BB / 9
BAA
.254
HR / 9
1.0
GP
110
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
2.9 avg / 4.2 allowed
Plate signature
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
3.90
Blowout wins (4+)
4
Shutout games
0
Form last 30
12-18
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 3.9 runs
Form heatmap
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-06-27 → 2026-07-30
Record
12-18
Win pct
40.0%
Avg margin
-0.3
Longest W
3
Longest L
4
Upset wins
5
Favorite losses
12
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
161 games · 2025-08-02 → 2026-07-30
Peak 1541 · Now 1493 · Trough 1464
Next 5 games
Recent transactions
Placed 3B Ramón Urías on the 60-day IL. Recalled RHP Chris Roycroft from Memphis (IL). Optioned 3B Nolan Gorman and RHP Hunter Dobbins to Memphis. Selected the contract of 1B Blaze Jordan from Memphis.
Reinstated LF Nathan Church from the 10-day IL. Optioned CF Victor Scott II to Memphis (IL).
Optioned CF Victor Scott II to Memphis (IL).
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26

A. Burleson
1B · #41

A. Pallante
SP · #53

B. Jordan
3B · #33

B. Torres
LF · #39

D. May
SP · #3

G. Soriano
RP · #65

G. Graceffo
RP · #44

I. Herrera
DH · #48

J. Crooks
C · #8

J. Wetherholt
2B · #26

J. Walker
RF · #18

J. Fermin
LF · #15

J. Bruihl
RP · #47

K. Leahy
SP · #62

L. Nootbaar
LF · #21

L. Gastelum
RP · #72

M. Winn
SS · #0

M. Svanson
RP · #49

M. Liberatore
SP · #32

M. McGreevy
SP · #36

N. Church
CF · #27

N. Velazquez
LF · #38

P. Pages
C · #43

P. Strzelecki
RP · #58

R. O'Brien
RP · #61

R. Stanek
RP · #55
Model picks on STL
22-24 graded · 47.8% (95% CI 34.1-61.9) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26
All MLB · 698-590 graded