
39-31 (55.7%) · W1 · L10 7-3
Model verdict
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#6 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .522 · exp 36.5-33.5 vs act 39-31 · n=70 · luck +2.5W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-06-11 → 2026-06-15 · Full ATS profile →
Stat leaders
OPS
Home runs
RBI
Batting average
Stolen bases
ERA
WHIP
Strikeouts
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
HR
83
R / G
4.6
K / G
8.1
Pitching
ERA
FIP (approx)
WHIP
K / 9
BB / 9
BAA
.252
HR / 9
1.1
GP
70
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
6.2 avg / 4.0 allowed
Plate signature
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
4.53
Blowout wins (4+)
5
Shutout games
3
Form last 30
16-14
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 4.5 runs
Form heatmap
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-05-12 → 2026-06-15
Record
16-14
Win pct
53.3%
Avg margin
+0.4
Longest W
6
Longest L
3
Upset wins
1
Favorite losses
10
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
160 games · 2025-06-17 → 2026-06-15
Peak 1535 · Now 1521 · Trough 1464
Recent transactions
Placed 3B Ramón Urías on the 60-day IL. Recalled RHP Chris Roycroft from Memphis (IL). Optioned 3B Nolan Gorman and RHP Hunter Dobbins to Memphis. Selected the contract of 1B Blaze Jordan from Memphis.
Reinstated LF Nathan Church from the 10-day IL. Optioned CF Victor Scott II to Memphis (IL).
Optioned CF Victor Scott II to Memphis (IL).
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26

A. Burleson
1B · #41

A. Pallante
SP · #53

B. Jordan
1B · #33

B. Torres
LF · #39

C. Roycroft
RP · #58

D. May
SP · #3

G. Soriano
RP · #65

G. Graceffo
RP · #44

I. Herrera
DH · #48

J. Crooks
C · #8

J. Wetherholt
2B · #26

J. Romero
RP · #59

J. Walker
RF · #18

J. Fermin
LF · #15

J. Bruihl
RP · #47

K. Leahy
SP · #62

L. Nootbaar
LF · #21

M. Winn
SS · #0

M. Svanson
RP · #49

M. Liberatore
SP · #32

M. McGreevy
SP · #36

N. Church
LF · #27

N. Velazquez
OF · #38

P. Pages
C · #43

R. O'Brien
RP · #61

R. Stanek
RP · #55
Model picks on STL
20-20 graded · 50.0% (95% CI 35.2-64.8) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26
All MLB · 594-464 graded