Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at PIT?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 26, 2026

FINAL+1PIT

CHC

59-46

PIT

54-52

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

32,921 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

PIT no-vig %

53.3%

open 53.1% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.7%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
44.9%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.2%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.5%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.91

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

46.9%

Close no-vig

46.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at PIT?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.2pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best

+128DraftKings

edge +17.2pp · implied 41.2%

PIT

no live price

Book	CHC	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+128★	-168	+17.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.3high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.2± 2.9high
Alex BregmanCHC
2.0± 2.8high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Michael BuschCHC
0.8± 1.0high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

PIT

.753

OPS

.720

.749

.339

OBP

◀

.318

.335

5.13

Runs / G

4.50

5.11

4.09

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.29

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

CHC 7 · PIT 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	1	2	7
PIT	0	3	4	0	1	0	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.290	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
S. SuzukiRF	.265	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
M. Busch1B	.247	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
I. HappLF	.220	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Hoerner2B	.247	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.237	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
C. KellyC	.257	4	0	0	1	0	0	3
P. Ramirez2B	.305	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.220	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
Team		38	7	12	7	1	2	9

Player

.290

.265

.247

.220

.247

.237

.257

.305

.220

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	4.0	6	7	7	2	3	69
R. RolisonRP	1.0	3	1	1	1	0	23
A. CivaleSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	27
T. ThorntonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
Team	8.0	11	8	8	3	8	138

Player

4.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.303	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Lowe2B	.246	4	2	3	0	0	0	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.269	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. ValdezRF	.293	3	2	2	2	1	1	1
R. O'HearnRF	.279	2	2	1	4	1	2	0
N. Gonzales3B	.313	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. GonzalezSS	.208	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. RossC	.200	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
T. CallihanLF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TrioloSS	.243	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. CookCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	8	11	8	3	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. AshcraftSP	6.0	7	4	4	2	5	93
C. MlodzinskiRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	2	33
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	25
Team	9.0	12	7	7	2	9	151

Team

CHC

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.