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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
SD
SD
39-36
PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDT
ARI
ARI
39-36
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesARI leads series 1-0-1
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.4%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs SD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 76 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Michael KingSD4.8± 2.9medium
- Eduardo RodriguezARI4.6± 1.5medium
- Griffin CanningSD4.6± 2.4low
Hits
- Samad TaylorSD1.4± 1.1low
- Ketel MarteARI1.3± 0.8high
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1.3± 1.4high
Total bases
- Corbin CarrollARI2.2± 2.2high
- Gabriel MorenoARI2.2± 1.6high
- Ketel MarteARI2.0± 1.3high
RBIs
- Corbin CarrollARI0.9± 1.7high
- Samad TaylorSD0.8± 1.7low
- Ketel MarteARI0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI3.6± 3.1low
- Griffin CanningSD3.4± 3.2low
- Zac GallenARI3.3± 1.9medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SD
league avg
ARI
.656
OPS
.719
▶.694
.292
OBP
.319
▶.308
3.91
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.28
3.90
Team ERA
◀
4.19
4.18
1.30
WHIP
1.31
▶1.28
8.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.2
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant