Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at ARI?

The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 3, 2026

FINAL+4ARI

58-55

ARI

60-53

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

22,008 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.0 · +1.0

ARI no-vig %

50.2%

open 50.0% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.8%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.08

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at ARI?: The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.3pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

+566DraftKings

edge +32.3pp · implied 14.1%

ARI

no live price

Book	SD	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	+566★	-1060	+32.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ARI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Casey MizeSD
5.1± 2.4medium
Michael KingSD
4.7± 1.6high
Walker BuehlerSD
4.3± 2.2high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.5± 1.2high
Ty FranceSD
1.3± 1.0high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.4± 2.6high
Jackson MerrillSD
2.0± 2.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.7± 2.2high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.1± 1.3high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low
Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Griffin CanningSD
2.7± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ARI

.696

OPS

.720

▶

.706

.312

OBP

.318

.314

4.23

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

4.15

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.32

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

SD 1 · ARI 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
ARI	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.210	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.208	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.294	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. MerrillCF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Rengifo3B	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.314	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.221	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Song2B	.208	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	6	0	0	1	5

Player

.280

.210

.208

.294

.237

.237

.314

.221

.208

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KingSP	5.0	5	3	3	4	5	104
Y. MatsuiRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	22
J. EstradaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	25
Team	8.0	9	5	5	5	7	158

Player

M. KingSP

5.0

104

Y. MatsuiRP

1.1

J. EstradaRP

0.2

W. PeraltaRP

1.0

Team

8.0

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.244	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.242	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
M. KeplerLF	.224	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. Marte2B	.249	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
N. Arenado3B	.244	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.199	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. TawaLF	.224	4	2	3	3	1	0	0
J. McCannC	.319	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.272	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.187	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		30	5	9	5	1	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. PfaadtRP	6.2	5	1	0	1	3	90
J. MorilloRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	18
B. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	6	1	0	1	5	120

Team

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ARI vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.