Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 1, 2026

FINAL+5ATL

WSH

55-57

ATL

66-45

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

38,625 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ATL no-vig %

63.4%

open 63.1% · +0.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
62.4%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.3%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.2%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.8pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+528DraftKings

edge +22.8pp · implied 15.0%

ATL

no live price

Book	WSH	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+528★	-950	+22.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Tyler MahleATL
4.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.5± 2.4high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 3.3high
Daylen LileWSH
1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.8± 1.0high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.3high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

ATL

.765

OPS

◀

.720

.733

.326

OBP

◀

.318

.315

5.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.88

4.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.64

1.40

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

WSH 3 · ATL 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3
ATL	2	1	0	1	0	0	4	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.267	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. Chaparro1B	.222	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. CrewsRF	.229	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.290	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
B. House3B	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. YoungCF	.234	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Nunez2B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.283	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.247	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TenaDH	.247	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	4	3	0	3	6

Player

.267

.222

.229

.290

.234

.234

.240

.283

.259

.247

.247

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MikolasSP	6.0	9	4	4	1	3	94
R. CornelioRP	0.2	0	4	0	3	1	32
E. YeanRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	22
Team	8.0	10	8	4	4	6	148

Player

M. MikolasSP

6.0

R. CornelioRP

0.2

E. YeanRP

1.1

Team

8.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.275	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.240	4	2	1	1	1	1	1
M. Olson1B	.264	3	2	1	1	1	1	0
M. Harris IICF	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.268	3	2	1	2	1	1	1
A. Riley3B	.216	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.230	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. JarvisSS	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	8	10	7	3	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. PerezSP	7.0	1	0	0	2	6	78
D. YoungRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	20
V. MederosRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	4	3	3	3	6	109

Team

WSH

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.