Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 27, 2026

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

49-58

WSH

54-53

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

17,618 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

WSH no-vig %

54.2%

open 53.2% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.7%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
63.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.2%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.30

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-124

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

52.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.8pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

WSH

★ best

+110DraftKings

edge +18.8pp · implied 44.7%

Book	TOR	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-143	+110★	+18.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Jose SorianoTOR
5.2± 2.6high

Hits

George SpringerTOR
1.2± 0.5high
Alejandro KirkTOR
1.0± 0.6high
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

George SpringerTOR
2.0± 1.5high
Abimelec OrtizWSH
2.0± 2.7low
CJ AbramsWSH
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

George SpringerTOR
0.7± 1.3high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 1.1high
Alejandro KirkTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

WSH

.680

OPS

.720

▶

.765

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.326

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.30

4.07

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.78

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.40

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 3 · WSH 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3
WSH	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Clement2B	.296	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.281	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.264	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. SpringerDH	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. KirkC	.224	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. Okamoto3B	.224	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Urias2B	.237	2	1	1	1	1	2	0
M. StrawRF	.220	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.144	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.234	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	1	4	3

Player

.296

.281

.264

.233

.224

.224

.244

.237

.220

.144

.227

.234

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ScherzerSP	2.2	4	1	1	3	4	75
M. FluhartyRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17
A. MackoRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	7
S. MilesRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	15
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	15
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	15
Team	9.0	8	2	2	4	13	152

Player

2.2

1.1

0.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.272	3	0	1	0	0	2	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.280	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.243	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.295	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
D. CrewsRF	.228	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. LileLF	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
K. RuizC	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Nunez2B	.250	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.224	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
Team		34	2	8	2	1	4	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. YeanRP	2.1	3	2	2	0	0	20
A. AlvarezSP	4.1	4	1	1	3	3	80
P. SchultzRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
C. PalmquistRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	7	3	3	4	3	128

Team

TOR

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.